Market analysis: the domestic cotton market rose steadily. On July 27, the average price of China’s cotton index 3128b was 17503 yuan / ton, up 115 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. The transaction of reserve cotton is hot, and the average transaction price is higher than the spot price, which provides price support for the spot cotton. At the end of June, the total commercial cotton inventory in China was about 3.0173 million tons, a month on month decrease of 15.67% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.84%. USDA reported a slight reduction in global inventory in July; The new cotton planting area in China has decreased. The survey results show that the national cotton planting area will be 43.4559 million mu in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 5.47%. Although the downstream textile industry is in the traditional off-season, the off-season is not light, the inventory of cotton yarn enterprises is low, and the startup rate is relatively stable.

Future forecast: the downstream textile market demand is good, the enterprise operating rate remains high, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory continues to decline. At present, the cotton futures market has reached the highest price in recent years, and the future market of cotton can be expected. Considering that the rising part of the current market exceeds expectations, be vigilant about callback and consolidation.

Aluminum fluoride market stabilizes

The price of aluminum fluoride was stable this week, and the rainstorm failed to arouse the waves of aluminum fluoride Market. According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8500.00 yuan / ton on July 26, which was stable compared with 8500 yuan / ton on July 19 at the beginning of the week. The aluminum fluoride market is calm this week.

Electrolytic aluminum price shock adjustment

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of electrolytic aluminum was adjusted this week, the export increased year-on-year, the overseas demand increased, the market supply was tight, the state threw and stored aluminum ingots, and the shortage of aluminum ingot supply was alleviated. Electrolytic aluminum market remained stable in the future.

As can be seen from the trend chart of aluminum fluoride industry chain, the upstream market of aluminum fluoride is stable this week, the cost of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable, the downstream aluminum price is stable, the aluminum ingot Market is declining, and the price of aluminum fluoride is stable.

Market overview and forecast

The aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business agency believes that the heavy rain in Henan this week has an impact on the transportation of aluminum fluoride, the aluminum fluoride market is positive, the downstream aluminum ingot price fluctuates and falls, and the aluminum fluoride market is negative. Overall, the aluminum fluoride market was mixed, and the aluminum fluoride market remained stable in the future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic synthetic rubber price rose and fell this week (July 19-july 23). The price of CIS polybutadiene rubber BR9000 was 14690 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 14420 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an overall decline of 1.84%; The price of IBB 1502 was 14225 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 13866 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an overall decrease of 2.52%.

This week (July 19-july 23), the domestic synthetic rubber market rose and fell, and the ex factory price of synthetic rubber was stable. According to the monitoring of business society, as of July 23, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 14100 yuan / ton, and Jihua / Fushun 1502 reported 13900 yuan / ton; There is some resistance to high priced rubber in the downstream, and the merchant’s offer is mainly higher and lower. According to the understanding of the business agency, the mainstream price in Shunding market such as Daqing, Qilu, Yanshan, Sichuan and Qixiang is around 14050 ~ 14600 yuan / ton; Jihua, Fushun, Yangzi and Qilu emulsion polybutylbenzene 1502 mainstream report 13400 ~ 14000 yuan / ton.

The commencement of butadiene styrene butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber changed slightly this week.

This week (July 19-july 23), raw butadiene continued to rise, and the cost side continued to support more. According to the monitoring of business society, as of July 23, the price of butadiene was 11842 yuan / ton, up 4.50% from 10987 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, the price of natural rubber still fluctuated around 13000 yuan / ton, which is difficult to make an effective breakthrough in the short term, and it is mainly bad for synthetic rubber. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 23, the price of domestic natural rubber was 12962 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the low price of natural rubber has a strong negative impact on Shunding, but Shunding and styrene butadiene have plant maintenance plans in the later stage. In addition, the supply of raw butadiene is tight and the price is high. It is expected that Shunding and styrene butadiene rubber will fluctuate at a high level in the later stage.

With the approach of the long-term settlement day in Northwest China this month, freight rates continue to rise. With the strength of the upper reaches and the expectation of price increase in some regions, it is expected that the mainland market will remain in a high position. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of July 20, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2560 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 1.79% and a year-on-year increase of 56.57%.

The northwest methanol market continued to push up in some parts, and the ex factory quotations of some major manufacturers increased significantly, guiding manufacturers in other regions to quote, while some factories in the mainland may continue to raise their quotations. The rising freight also promoted the methanol market to a certain extent.

Summary of methanol market prices by Region as of July 20

Region, price

Qinghai Area 2090 yuan / ton factory cash

Shanxi area 2280-2330 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Liaoning Province 2330-2350 yuan / ton delivered to the factory

Fujian area 2 670-2 690 yuan / ton

Two lakes area Ex factory reference 2500-2560 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Anhui Province 2540-2560 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province 2410-2425 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Downstream, the formaldehyde market rose broadly. The raw material methanol continues to show an upward trend, and the cost continues to rise. Dimethyl ether market prices continued to rise, the market trading atmosphere is good. Domestic acetic acid market atmosphere wait-and-see, stable situation to ease the downstream for acetic acid wait-and-see mentality, mainly small market transactions.

In terms of external market, as of July 20, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at US $381.00-382.00/t. The US Gulf methanol market closed at 115.00-116.00 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 343.00-344.00 euro / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 381.00-382.00/t 0 USD / ton

Europe and America Gulf of America 115.00-116.00 cents / gal 0 cents per gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 343.00-344.00 euro / ton 0 euro / ton

Business community methanol analysts expect that the short-term methanol market may be high consolidation.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2800.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market temporarily stable, July 16 potassium chloride commodity index was 88.89.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend sales offer 3150 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In late July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic glycine price continued to rise this week, with the price of 24000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 24333 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.39%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business association, the low-end price of glycine rose this week, and the current mainstream price of industrial glycine is around 25000 yuan / ton. The tight supply situation has been eased, and the manufacturer can receive new orders. Due to the high price, the new orders are limited, and the factory mainly completes the orders of old customers. In terms of devices: the start-up enterprises are basically fully open, and the parking enterprises have plans to start up in the near future.

In terms of demand: the price of glyphosate in the downstream fluctuated in a narrow range around 50000 yuan / ton, just needed to be supported, the price was firm, and the demand for glycine was relatively stable.

3、 Future forecast

Business community glycine analysts believe that the current supply of glycine is more sufficient, downstream demand procurement, rising power is insufficient, glycine prices are expected to consolidate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s block list, the price of bromine has declined. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 45812.5 yuan / ton, while at the weekend, the average market price was 45187.5 yuan / ton, down 1.36%, up 71.96% over the same period last year. On July 16, the bromine commodity index was 158.55, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.90% from 161.62 (2021-07-01), the highest point in the cycle, and up 169.09% from 58.92, the lowest point on October 29, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine is declining, and the current mainstream price of enterprises is about 44000-45000 yuan / ton, and the price of bromine is weaker than that of the previous period. The main reason is that the downstream flame retardants and intermediates start with low load, and the purchase of bromine is reduced. There is a psychological resistance to the long-term rise of bromine. Due to the high temperature in summer, the number of maintenance enterprises in southern China also increases, and the bromine is mainly purchased on demand.

Raw materials: the domestic sulfur market continues to wait and see, and refineries in various regions offer stable prices according to their own shipment situation. Refineries in domestic areas operate normally, traders enter the market to purchase on demand, the external price is firm, and the attitude of the field operators is good. The downstream phosphate fertilizer stock is fair, the spot market is stable, the domestic and export orders perform well, which has good support for sulfur. The sulfur market in the future will wait and see to sort out and operate, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up situation.

Analysts from business news agency believe that the overall supply of bromine is insufficient for a long time, and the supply growth is relatively slow. However, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are under construction, the demand for bromine is reduced, and they are resistant to the high price of bromine. It is expected that the price of bromine in the short term will be weak in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

As of July 7, the overall price of viscose staple fiber showed a downward trend. In recent three months, the price of viscose staple fiber decreased by 2280 yuan / ton, or nearly 14.50%. Since March, the trading volume of textile market has turned weak, and most products have no glory in the future. Since the price of viscose staple fiber reached a high level at the beginning of March, there has been no adjustment, allowing the competitive products and downstream wantonly fall. In April, the sales of viscose staple fiber continued to be sluggish in March, and the price gradually declined.

From the monthly K-bar chart, the price of viscose staple fiber has been on the rise from September 20 to March 21, with a negative drop since April, and the price drop is the most obvious in May, with a drop of 8.85%.

From the perspective of upstream commercial cotton yarn, wood pulp has dropped by 10.66% in the past three months, and the spot price of wood pulp is still in a state of continuous supplement. In June, the performance of the downstream base paper market was weak, there was no obvious fluctuation in the white cardboard and coated paper markets, and the downstream purchasing continued the rigid demand strategy. At the beginning of the month, the price of pulp futures fluctuated weakly, which also made the spot price of wood pulp adjust with the fluctuation of futures price. Then, near the middle of June, the pulp futures price made another effort after several days of silence, and now it is in the downward finishing state, which also leads to the downward trend of the spot price of wood pulp. In the second quarter, the downstream paper products entered the off-season of consumption, the price rise of external quotation slowed down and the pressure of national policy increased, all of which made the price of wood pulp under pressure.

Business analysts believe that the output of viscose staple fiber is expected to remain low in July, but since mid July, the strength of rotation inspection of viscose staple fiber market may gradually slow down, and the overall supply of the industry will still show an upward trend. Since 2021 / 4 / 4, the 7-day moving average has been Undercrossing the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend, but the current two moving average have a trend of opposite. According to 2021 / 7 / 4 calculation, the probability of change of operation situation in the next 7 days (that is, the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average) is 50.39%（ Note: if the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average upward, the index will enter the upward channel; If the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average downward, the index will enter the downward channel.)

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of July 12, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 16033.33 yuan / ton, up 2.39% compared with last Monday (July 5), up 13.71% compared with June 12, and down 12.07% year on year in a three-month cycle.

In June, the overall trend of propylene oxide market fell by 4.90%, and the overall trend of the market first fell and then rose. In July, propylene oxide continued the rising trend in late June and rose slowly. At the beginning of last week, the manufacturers of propylene oxide had no pressure, the orders of downstream polyether increased steadily, and the market price was rising. The middle and lower reaches just need to follow up steadily, and the market was pushed up without pressure. At present, the market supply is tight, the downstream follow-up performance is positive, and the market continued to rise. On the 12th, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 15200-15300 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, Shandong propylene market fluctuated and went down (7.5 ~ 7.9) this week. According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market went down slightly this week, with the market at 7804 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and the average price at the weekend of 7796 yuan / ton, down 0.1%.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of propylene glycol on July 9 was 16433.33, up 2.28% compared with July 1 (16066.67); For downstream soft foam polyether, on July 12, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong rose, the market price of raw material propylene oxide rose, the cost support was strengthened, and the market spot supply was short-term tight, the market price rose. At present, the mainstream quotation of common soft foam polyether in Shandong is around 15700-16000 yuan / ton.

Business community propylene oxide analysts believe that, overall, the current cost side has little impact, the market supply is tight, downstream just need to follow up actively, manufacturers are not under pressure, it is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may rise steadily, more specific trends still need to pay attention to market information guidance.

The cost is weakening, the downstream demand is weak, and the market price of cyclohexanone falls after rising. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of July 9, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 10700 yuan / ton, up 0.38% month on month and 78.33% year on year.

As of July 9, domestic cyclohexanone market summary:

region ., Price

East China 10800-11000 yuan / ton in cash

South China 11100-11200 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong Province 10600-10700 yuan / ton in cash

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fell, from 8700 yuan / ton to 8550 yuan / ton in East China. Downstream, caprolactam started to maintain a low level, chemical fiber demand is light.

The cost support of cyclohexanone is weakening, and the downstream chemical fiber is expected to be mainly purchased at low price. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expect that the market of cyclohexanone will still go down in the short term.