Global stock markets fell under inflation worries, the epidemic situation in India continued to worsen, and international oil prices fell sharply. Pure benzene spot slightly down, cyclohexanone temporarily stable wait-and-see. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of May 14, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 11220 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 13.10% and a year-on-year increase of 93.45%.

As of May 14, domestic cyclohexanone market summary:

Region, price

East China 11500-11600 yuan / ton in cash

South China 12000 yuan / ton in cash

Shandong Province 11150-11250 yuan / ton cash delivery

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene dropped after rising. In the first half of last week, due to the concentrated maintenance of pure benzene plants and the impact of new downstream demand, the domestic pure benzene supply was in short supply, and the market was reluctant to sell at low prices; In the latter half of the period, the futures price of styrene in the lower reaches fell sharply, and pure benzene followed the weakness. Downstream, caprolactam plant started to maintain a high level, raw materials on demand procurement.

The spot price of pure benzene has fallen, and the market price of cyclohexanone is relatively high, and the downstream follow-up is slow. Business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the domestic cyclohexanone market will be high in the short term.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (May 17): 233.33 yuan / ton

On May 17, the price of hydrochloric acid mixture in Shandong increased by 6.66 yuan / ton, or 2.94%, compared with the quoted price on May 14. The market of liquid chlorine in the upper reaches is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid. The market of silica and ammonium chloride in the lower reaches is high, which brings certain benefits to the price of hydrochloric acid. At the same time, the recent increase in enterprise maintenance, hydrochloric acid supply is tight, downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. The by-product acid is still impacting the market, and the pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is greater.

Recently, the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the average price is about 240 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of May 14, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in mainstream areas in China was around 500 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on May 7. Compared with that on May 1, the average price increased by 20 yuan / ton, or 4.17%, and compared with that on April 1 (the reference average price of phosphate rock was 446 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 54 yuan / ton, or 11.94%.

At the beginning of May, after the holiday, the domestic phosphorus ore mining enterprises in Guizhou raised the price of primary and high-end grade phosphorus ore again, with a large increase range of 10-50 yuan / ton. Then, the price of 30% grade phosphorus ore high-end vehicle plate in Guizhou increased to 480 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphorus ore high-end vehicle plate also increased to 420 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic phosphorus ore overall high stable operation

As of May 14, the market reference price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou is around 410-480 yuan / T, of which, the price of Xifeng phosphate ore in Guizhou is 300000 tons / year, and the price of 30% grade phosphate ore is 410 yuan / T, The reference price of 30% grade original car plate of Kailin in Guizhou is 440 yuan / ton. In Hubei area, Liushugou, Hubei Province, the price of 30% grade high phosphorus and low magnesium ore is 520 yuan / ton. In Sichuan area, the 30% grade phosphate concentrate in Mabian County of Sichuan Province is about 370-390 yuan / ton according to the shipping price in the county.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, the yellow phosphorus market is affected by Yunnan power rationing and Guizhou Longma plant’s shutdown and outward mining. The on-site supply is tight, the market is high and stable, and the low-end price is hard to find. At present, the factory acceptance transaction reference price of Yunnan Net phosphorus is 17200-17400 yuan / ton. Phosphoric acid market is stable for the time being, continue to wait and see the trend of raw materials.

Phosphorus ore market trading stable, short term will continue to high consolidation operation

At present, the overall quotation of domestic phosphorus ore market is in the high consolidation stage, and the market transaction is relatively stable. I heard that the downstream purchase orders of yellow phosphorus products increase, which may give support to the phosphorus ore market. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, China’s phosphorus ore market will continue to be consolidated at a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of mixed xylene fell slightly this week. On April 30, the price of mixed xylene was 5850 yuan / ton; On Sunday (May 9), the price was 6060 yuan / ton, up 210 yuan / ton or 3.59% from last week; It increased by 70.22% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The mixed xylene market was active after the festival, boosted by the price rise of related aromatic products. Sinopec’s Toluene listing price continued to rise, and the bottom support strengthened. However, the follow-up of downstream demand is general, and the mixed xylene rise is limited due to the lack of sustainability of gasoline blending rise. In terms of external market, as of May 7, the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was 790 US dollars / ton, up 8.5 US dollars / ton, or 1.09% compared with April 30; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 815 US dollars / ton, up 11 US dollars / ton or 1.37% on April 30.

In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + kept the policy of gradually increasing production unchanged, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 30, Brent rose $1.775/barrel, or 2.65%; WTI rose $1.4 per barrel, or 2.21%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX prices remained stable, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 60% year on year. As of May 7, the closing prices in Asia were US $859-861 / T FOB Korea and US $877-879 / T CFR China.

PTA market, PTA prices in East China rose, Sunday (May 9) at 4863.64 yuan / ton, 2.37% higher than last week, 43.14% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, ox prices remained stable this week. On Sunday, ox prices in East China were 5900 yuan / ton, up 47.5% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The external news is strong, and Sinopec’s listing price has strong support at the bottom, so it is expected that the trend of short-term mixed xylene will be strong. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, xylene blending unit maintenance trends, port inventory and downstream demand changes on xylene blending price.

From May 6 to August 2021, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China increased. The domestic ex factory price was 7275 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7625 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 4.81%.

Price rise and fall of domestic main hydrogenated benzene market from May 6 to 8 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, price on May 6, price on May 8, weekly rise and fall

East China, 7500-7600, 7800-7850, + 275

Shandong area, 7150-7250., 7400-7500., + 250

This week (May 6-8), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province was dominated, with 7200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7450 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 250 yuan / ton.

In May 2021, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was raised once. At present, the price is 7700 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 7650 yuan / ton.

Since the end of April, the external price of pure benzene has risen sharply, and the crude oil price has been consolidated at a high level in the same period. Supported by favorable fundamental factors, Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene once before the festival, and rose again after the festival, with a total increase of 400 yuan / ton. Domestic pure benzene industry chain is bullish, downstream styrene and other markets are also strong operation, good support is obvious. The market of hydrobenzene follows the trend of pure benzene.

In terms of aftermarket, the business community thinks that under the current favorable factors of fundamentals, driven by the overall upward trend of the industrial chain, there is still room for upward trend in the aftermarket.

Commodity index: on April 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 94.30, up 0.1 point from yesterday, down 11.98% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and up 13.77% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data, since mid March, according to the local environmental protection policy, the water treatment plants in Gongyi district have stopped production. After stopping and opening, the plants did not resume production on a large scale until mid April. As far as April is concerned, the water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan first stopped production for half a month, then resumed production on a large scale in the middle of the month, and then stopped production again due to environmental factors in the week near the end of the month. From the trend, polyacrylamide continued to maintain a small volatility market, domestic (molecular weight 12 million, ionic degree 10-30) polyacrylamide cation price quoted 15433 yuan / ton on the 25th, after a small adjustment to 15416 yuan / ton, and then a small increase to 15433 yuan / ton, showing a small “V” trend. Manufacturers continue to stop production, resulting in some of the tight supply, so there are small fluctuations in the market, in fact, inventory is relatively sufficient at the end of the month, demand is tepid.

Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and the shortage of supply, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way, and the domestic price has reached the highest point in recent five years: on February 18, the mainstream quotation was 12100 yuan / ton, and on March 10, the daily quotation was 16500 yuan / ton, up 4500 yuan / ton, with a range of 36%; However, from the middle of March, affected by the lower upstream price, the price was reduced by 250 yuan / ton on the 15th, and the mainstream market quotation was reduced to about 16300 yuan / ton. On the 26th, Shanghai Secco reduced its price by 300 yuan / ton to about 16000 yuan / ton; In April, the domestic mainstream market price of acrylonitrile continued to decrease by 10%, from 14400 yuan / ton to 14250 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a weekly decrease of about 1%. The raw material cost of polyacrylamide decreased again.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In the first ten days of April, the civil gas market of Shandong Province continued to go up, and the price kept rising, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in the latter half of the year, the price of liquefied gas for civilian use was basically stable after falling 5-6%. It is obvious from the trend chart that there is a large contrast between the rising market in late April and early April. Although the price is down a part compared with the first ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is at a relatively high level, the atmosphere of downstream entering the market has warmed up, the manufacturers ship smoothly, and the inventory is mostly at a controllable level. There are still negative factors in the market, international crude oil is in a relatively weak position, and the market demand is expected to weaken due to the rising weather and temperature. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, on the 25th of this week, the mainstream price of LPG in Shandong market was 4153.33 yuan / ton, while on the 30th it was 4066.67 yuan / ton, down about 2%.

Downstream demand: from 2021 to now, especially after the year, from the middle of February to the middle of March, the price of upstream raw materials has increased significantly, resulting in a substantial increase in the cost of polyacrylamide. As a downstream product, polyacrylamide has increased, resulting in a substantial increase in the procurement cost of downstream enterprises. In the early years after, the water treatment project has not yet recovered, and the demand is weak, so the market of polyacrylamide is not good. During the shutdown period from mid March to mid April, although the inventory is consumed, the demand does not change much; So far this month, the demand is still tepid, and the market change of polyacrylamide this month is purely affected by the inventory of each factory when the production is stopped.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the domestic economy is stable and improving, but there are many uncertain factors in the global macro economy under the external influence, especially the recent epidemic situation has a serious impact on Southeast Asia. In addition to the obvious impact of inflation on the market of bulk raw materials this year, the overall demand of overseas markets is weakening, which has a very obvious impact on multi industries, and then transmits to the production links of multiple industries; Polyacrylamide, as an environmental protection water treatment product, is closely related to the environmental protection requirements of many industries, and its demand will be greatly affected. Secondly, under the state’s environmental protection objectives and regulatory requirements this year, the environmental protection inspection in various places is strict. As the main production area of water treatment products, Gongyi District of Henan Province also stopped production for rectification for about one month. However, the impact of inventory is not very big, especially after the resumption of production in the middle of the month, the supply is sufficient. In the future, if the production of related industries is affected, the demand for water treatment projects will also decrease. Towards the end of the month, the cost of acrylonitrile will be reduced by 1%, liquefied gas will also be reduced by 2%, and the production cost of polyacrylamide will be reduced. In the future, the market will be stable in the short term, and the cost may decrease in the medium term. However, if the demand improves, it will stimulate the industry. It is reported that although most of the manufacturers in the main production areas resume production, some of them still stop production from time to time. It is continuously suggested that the relevant manufacturers should start from the overall situation, improve the production technology level as soon as possible, meet the requirements of environmental protection, and maintain the long-term survival and development of the enterprise.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price of p-xylene remained stable in April. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6400 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month. The price trend of domestic PX market was stable in April.

In April, the domestic supply of p-xylene was normal, and the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%. The 600000 ton unit of Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was in stable operation, the Yangzi Petrochemical Unit was in stable operation, the Pengzhou petrochemical unit was in stable operation, the Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was in normal operation, the Jinling Petrochemical Unit was in stable operation, the Qingdao Lidong unit was in full load operation, and the Qilu Petrochemical Unit was in stable operation, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%. The domestic supply of p-xylene is general, but there are many overhauls of overseas plants. The domestic price of p-xylene is affected and the trend remains high. Recently, the international crude oil price is above US $60 / barrel, and the PX external market price is rising slightly. As of the 28th, the closing prices in Asia are US $856-858 / T FOB Korea and US $874-876 / T CFR China. Recently, the operation rate of PX unit in Asia is normal. As a whole, the operation rate of p-toluene unit in Asia is less than 60%, and the supply of PX in Asia is general, PX closing price rose slightly, affected by the external price, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

Oil prices rose sharply in April, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its crude oil demand forecast. Then the inventory data of the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) showed that the US crude oil inventory fell for the third consecutive week, boosting people’s optimistic expectations of the recovery of energy demand. As of April 28, the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was at US $63.86/barrel, Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 66.78 U.S. dollars / barrel. International market news will still face some risks. Even if the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is controlled to a certain extent, the economic growth and blockade will be eased, which is expected to stimulate the recovery of oil demand. However, the epidemic situation in India and Japan, the third largest crude oil consumer, is not optimistic. With the intensification of the blockade, the demand for crude oil in Asia will be affected. If the US and Iran return to the “nuclear agreement”, these capacities will also bring variables to the market. Superimposed on the sustained growth of shale oil in the United States, the increase in supply will still greatly stabilize the favorable oil price of demand growth. The sharp rise of crude oil price in April is good for domestic petrochemical products, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

In April, the price trend of downstream PTA market rose, and the domestic PTA spot market rose. As of the 29th, the average price of PTA market was 4750-4800 yuan / ton, up 8.10% in April. In April, the price of auxiliary material acetic acid reached a record high, resulting in a substantial increase in PTA market cost. Under the low processing fee, PTA plant maintenance reduced production more. As of April 27, the operating rate was around 78%, with a month on month decline of about 4%, and the price continued to fluctuate upward. In terms of demand, gold, silver and four have come to an end, the terminal demand has not exceeded the expected performance, and the follow-up of new orders is insufficient, which restricts the factory’s willingness to purchase raw materials. The operating rate of most textile clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been callback, and the comprehensive operating rate has dropped from 86% in early April to around 82%. PTA prices rose in April, but the overall demand of downstream is poor, and the price trend of p-xylene market is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that there is a certain risk of decline in the current cost side, and the short-term crude oil price will remain high and volatile. However, PTA will continue to go to the warehouse in the downstream in May. However, due to the reduction of maintenance and the planned production of 3.3 million tons of Yisheng new materials, the speed of going to the warehouse will probably slow down, and the textile industry will enter the off-season of sales, It is expected that the market price trend of p-xylene will remain stable in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of lithium carbonate in East China has maintained a stable trend in April 2021. As of April 28, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 86600 yuan / ton, which was 0.46% lower than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 87000 yuan / ton on April 1). On April 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90000 yuan / ton, which was 0.66% lower than the average price at the beginning of April (the average price of carbon in East China was 90600 yuan / ton). Until the 28th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 80000-90000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 8500-92000 yuan / ton.

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate slightly increased in early April, but the range of change was relatively small, and the quoted prices of most enterprises were basically flat. After a small amount of exploration, the price has been in a stable state, and the stable price has continued until the middle and late April. From the market point of view, lithium carbonate supply enterprises are more willing to support the price, and the price is still stable when the demand is relatively weak. In addition, domestic lithium carbonate will continue to increase from March to may, and the situation of short supply has been significantly improved, so it is difficult to see a sharp rise in price.

Towards the end of April, the price of lithium carbonate began to loosen, and some enterprises had a slight downward trend, but most enterprises still maintained a stable state. At present, the inventory of lithium carbonate enterprises remains stable, and the situation that the downstream market is in short supply has been alleviated. The upstream lithium resources are in a tense state, but it seems that it has no impact on the recent lithium carbonate price.

The price of downstream lithium hydroxide rose in April. The price rise was due to the tight market supply, steady demand, strong offer of goods holders, and hard to find low price goods in the market. In terms of LiFePO4, the overall growth rate was 4.17% in April, with an increase of 2000 yuan / ton. The development trend of new electric vehicles is becoming increasingly apparent. Marine vehicles are developing rapidly, and there is a huge development space in the field of standby power storage. It can be seen that the market position of LiFePO4 will be further improved in the future.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency, at present, the price of lithium carbonate has returned to the state of stable consolidation, and the production increment of lithium carbonate has also eased the tension between supply and demand in the early stage. The market is basically in the state of just purchasing. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may be in a weak consolidation state in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of acetic anhydride rose all the way in April. On April 27, the price of acetic anhydride rose by 500 yuan / ton in a single day. In April, the price of acetic anhydride soared. The price of acetic anhydride set a record, and the price of acetic anhydride rose to the sky. On April 27, the price of acetic anhydride was 11833.33 yuan / ton, up 26.56% from 9350.00 yuan / ton on April 1. Some manufacturers offer up to 12500 yuan / ton.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid rose sharply in April, and the market of acetic acid rose all the way. It is difficult to determine the schedule for the start-up of Shunda acetic acid plant. The unexpected shutdown of Jiangsu Sopu acetic acid plant resulted in insufficient supply of acetic acid, which stimulated the rise of acetic acid price. In April, the price of acetic acid soared all the way, and the raw material cost of acetic anhydride rose, which pushed the price of acetic anhydride up.

Specific value index of acetic acid and acetic anhydride

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the commodity price index of acetic acid and acetic anhydride on April 26 was 144.32, up 0.43 points from yesterday, down 2.05% from the highest point of 147.34 points (2021-04-11) in the cycle, and up 106.94% from the lowest point of 69.74 points on August 4, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from January 1, 2015 to now). The prices of acetic acid and acetic anhydride both reached record highs. The price comparison index of acetic acid and acetic anhydride reached record highs on April 11. The price comparison index reached record highs in April, and the driving force for acetic anhydride to rise increased.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price fluctuated and rose in April, and the methanol rise slowed down in late April. In April, the start-up of methanol enterprises recovered slowly, and the methanol supply increased; Some olefin enterprises in the downstream of methanol are supported by outsourcing, the methanol port inventory is reduced, the support of methanol price rise is limited, the methanol price fluctuation is mainly sorted out, and the support of methanol to acetic anhydride rise is limited.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that the price of raw materials continues to soar, and the cost of acetic anhydride rises sharply, which stimulates the price of acetic anhydride to rise again and again. Some acetic anhydride manufacturers have quoted a sky high price of 12500 yuan / ton, and the actual price of some downstream customers is more than 13000 yuan / ton. Such a high price of acetic anhydride is far beyond the affordability of downstream customers. Some downstream customers of acetic anhydride have stopped production and become more resistant to the high price of acetic anhydride. However, due to the high cost of acetic anhydride and the lack of price reduction space of acetic anhydride, the future market of acetic anhydride is in a dilemma. Overall, the cost of acetic anhydride remains high in the future, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rising is increasing. Downstream customers started to reduce, the resistance to high acetic anhydride is larger, acetic anhydride drop pressure increased. Under the double pressure, it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will continue to rise in the future, but the rising trend is expected to slow down. Acetic anhydride manufacturers may lower their profit expectations to ensure downstream customers to start.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (April 26): 2170.00 yuan / ton

On April 26, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 3.33 yuan / ton, or 0.15%, compared with the quotation on April 23. The upstream liquid ammonia market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support is good. In the aspect of demand, agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, and most of them followed the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 70%, with a decrease, and the daily output is about 150000 tons. Urea plant maintenance, supply side tightening.

In the future, it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly and rise mainly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2200 yuan / ton.