According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. On February 8, the price was 970.75 US dollars / ton. On February 19, the average price of ethylene was 1003.25 US dollars / ton, up 3.35%. The current price has dropped 4.95% month on month, and the current price has increased 25.13% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market is on the rise. Asia’s ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 18th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $852-860 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $827-835 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. By the 18th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1164-1177 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1150-1161 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States soared. By the 18th, the price was 914-926 US dollars / ton. Recently, the ethylene market in Europe, America and Asia showed a rising trend. Generally speaking, during the Spring Festival holiday, the whole ethylene market kept rising, the market trading atmosphere was warm and the transaction was positive.

International: on February 18, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $60.53/barrel, down US $0.61. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, settlement price rose, settlement price of the main contract at 63.93 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.59 U.S. dollars. On Thursday, oil prices rose. Brent once rose above US $65, and then the market high fell, mainly due to the impact of investment profit taking. Previously, due to the extremely cold weather in the United States, the decline of production capacity and the increase of demand have driven oil prices to rise for several days. Despite the sharp reduction of US crude oil inventory, the market is still uneasy about the current virtual high oil price, and the high selling has led to the decline of oil prices.

Recently, the overall styrene market rose sharply. On the cost side, during the Spring Festival, oil prices continued to be positive, and the price of styrene continued to rise today. However, the pure benzene port inventory is in the decline channel, coupled with the crude oil boost, it is expected that the center of gravity of pure benzene will continue to rise in the short term, which is good for the trend of styrene. On the supply side, domestic supply remains high, but imports are low and there is room for export arbitrage. Downstream, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand of the three downstream gradually returned to normal level, which brought support to the price rise of styrene. Today, the price of styrene in Shandong is around 8100-8300 yuan / ton, and that in South China is around 8500-8600 yuan / ton.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, Iraq’s output has increased in the first half of February, the international oil price has moderately fallen, and the cost support is general. Therefore, the data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall in the following direction.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, aniline prices rose this week. On January 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7800-7900 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 8000-8100 yuan / ton. On February 7, the price of aniline in Shandong was 8100-8200 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 8300-8500 yuan / ton. The average price increased by 3.80% compared with last week, 3.80% compared with the beginning of the month, and 26.15% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price was raised three times this week, from 600 yuan / ton to 5400 yuan / ton. The reasons for the sharp rise of pure benzene price this week: on the one hand, the lower reaches are bearish on the pure benzene Market in the early stage, mainly purchasing on demand. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream concentrated stock, early pure benzene enterprise high inventory quickly empty. In addition, the unplanned shutdown and delayed restart of some units in East China led to the decrease of supply and the rapid rise of prices. On the other hand, the reduction of transportation before the festival and the increase of freight also promoted the price of pure benzene to rise. This week, the pure benzene inventory of East China port continued to decline. On Sunday (February 7), the price of pure benzene was 5000-5400 yuan / ton (the average price was 5280 yuan / ton), with a weekly increase of 18.49%.

The price of nitric acid dropped slightly this week, and the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2000 yuan / ton on Friday (February 5). Compared with the beginning of the month, the price decreased by 16.67 yuan / ton, or 0.83%; compared with the same period last year, the price increased by 27.66%.

Preliminary news: Jiangsu Fuqiang new material qualified aniline is expected to ship at the end of January, the market supply is expected to increase, the market mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, and the price continues to stabilize. Aniline this week by the cost side rose and the lower concentration of stock boost, the market out of early caution, prices continue to rise.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, it is still possible for pure benzene to go up before the festival. Entering the Spring Festival, the pure benzene market is expected to stabilize and consolidate. Continue to pay attention to the downstream procurement situation, the trend of pure benzene plant, crude oil, external market and styrene trend on the price of pure benzene.

Before the festival, aniline trend is strong, and it is expected to enter the high consolidation of Spring Festival prices. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the change of market supply and demand, the operation and maintenance of aniline plant.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market was stable in early February, with the spot prices of various brands mainly moving sideways. As of February 8, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 30200 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month.

In terms of upstream adipic acid of PA66, the recent domestic adipic acid market continued to warm up at the end of January. The dealers’ quotations were tentatively high, and generally rose in East China, South China and other regions. Some dealers’ quotations were falsely high, so there was room for speculation in the market. In terms of supply, at present, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers is above 80%, the market supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable. Before the festival, the downstream and dealers have centralized stock operation at the same time. From the result, the delivery volume is good, and the spot price is up to the present. In the early stage, dealers reduced prices to remove inventory. At present, the social inventory is more reasonable. Combined with the replenishment behavior in the downstream years ago, the pressure on the supply side is generally controllable, and the relatively tight supply environment is the main reason for the price rise of adipic acid. In the later stage, the business community believes that adipic acid is currently at a high level. Affected by the speculation of traders, there is a certain moisture in the market. In the later stage, the price may be subject to the suppression of demand without big action. At present, the Spring Festival holiday is coming, and the downstream operating rate will inevitably decline. It is expected that adipic acid will maintain a high level in the near future, and it is unlikely to continue to rise. After the festival, the possibility of falling back will not be ruled out.

Adipic acid’s support to PA66′s cost is still increasing. At present, the tight supply pattern of adiponitrile has not been improved, and the overall supply is still slightly tight. At present, the domestic polymerization factory mainly used to meet the early orders and complete the supply of old customers. The operating rate and shipment volume are also subject to upstream shortage. After the operating rate of Zhejiang Huafeng rose at the end of last year, there was almost no news of supply rising again, and there was a certain degree of shortage outside the big customers. At present, PA66 has no pressure on inventory, and the industry is willing to support the price. The upstream raw materials rose at a high level, the cost side support of PA66 was slightly heavy, and more cost side pressure supported the high spot price of PA66.

Business analysts believe that: pa662 domestic market trend in early February stable, high spot prices firm. The price of upstream products rose at a high level, which supported the cost of PA66, while the price of PA66 was at a high level. The downstream takes the goods passively, the recent stock up before the festival is basically completed, and the downstream mainly follows up on demand, but the cost side pressure makes PA66 price difficult. PA66 market is expected to remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Isopropanol prices fell this week, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of isopropanol in China was 8666.67 yuan / ton last weekend and 8133.33 yuan / ton this weekend. The price was reduced by 6.15% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Isopropanol prices fell this week. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed higher on December 15, while the European isopropanol market closed stable. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong is about 8000 yuan / ton, and that of isopropanol in Jiangsu is about 8300 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range is around 8100 yuan / ton. In recent days, the domestic isopropanol market is weak and the atmosphere in the market is empty.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market center of gravity fell again, but the current spot supply did not appear unlimited loose situation, the attitude of cargo holders was relatively gentle, the offer was high, and the actual order situation needed attention. It is estimated that the short-term negotiation of acetone will be 7600-7800 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material propylene, the prices of some enterprises fluctuated. There is a certain pressure on the current inventory, the price of crude oil rises significantly, the downstream market is mainly on the lookout, and the purchase intention before the festival is general. Therefore, it is expected that the future market of propylene will fluctuate steadily in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of Shangshe think: the raw material acetone declines, propylene fluctuates up and down, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the domestic market demand is weak. In the short term, isopropanol market is mainly stable.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose in January. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, 2.11% higher than that of 2840 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 26.09% higher than that of the same period last year.

In January, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was mainly rising. The equipment of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the floor was tight. The situation of goods on the floor improved, and the price trend on the floor rose slightly. In the near future, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is stable. There are still many production stops in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start to work normally. The market price of ammonium nitrate rises slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2800-2900 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

In January, the price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid dropped slightly. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2016.67 yuan / ton, 1.63% lower than 2050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Shanxi Xinghua quoted 1950 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2000 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2200 yuan / ton. Anhui Audley quoted 1950 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been running stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market is general. In January, the price trend of nitric acid market dropped slightly, and the price of raw nitric acid dropped, which has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly.

The price of domestic liquid ammonia in the upstream market rose in January. By the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3383.33 yuan / ton, up 2.84% from 3290 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of domestic liquid ammonia market rose, and the main rising stage was mainly concentrated in the middle of this month. The main reason was that the manufacturers had too many devices for maintenance, especially the four major manufacturers in Northeast China, with two devices shut down for maintenance, which brought great pressure on the supply in northern China. With the resumption of production by some manufacturers in the latter half of the year, the amount of ammonia increased and the price gradually stabilized. From the downstream perspective, in the off-season of agricultural fertilizer, the terminal does not pick up the goods, there is no market in many places, the market price of liquid ammonia rises slightly, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate rises slightly in February.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the market price of raw materials has a certain supporting role. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community think that the market price of ammonium nitrate will fluctuate in the later stage.

1、 Formic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of formic acid product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 31, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2650 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of January 1, and increased by 20.45% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In January, the market price of 85% industrial grade formic acid was stable. In January, the quotation of formic acid market remained high and stable. The downstream pesticide, rubber, leather and pharmaceutical industries purchased goods according to the market demand, mainly with rigid demand, and the focus of market negotiation was stable.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price quotation of some formic acid enterprises is summarized as follows: the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2600 yuan / ton, the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2550 yuan / ton, the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. is 2800 yuan / ton, and the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Shandong tamasuk Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2600 yuan / ton It’s 2550 yuan / ton. The spot price of the merchants depends on the market. The actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

On the upstream side, according to the monitoring data of the business community (1.25-1.29), the average price of upstream caustic soda as of January 29 was 472.50 yuan / ton, down 2.07% compared with the beginning of the week; the average price of upstream liquid ammonia as of January 29 was 3383.33 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week; the average price of upstream sulfuric acid as of January 29 was 322.50 yuan / ton, up 5.74% compared with the beginning of the week; As of January 29, the average quoted price of upstream methanol was 2290 yuan / ton, down 1.93% compared with the beginning of the week.

According to the price monitoring of business community, in the list of rise and fall of commodity prices in January 2021, there were 55 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 28 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 30.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities increased were bisphenol A (39.00%), lithium carbonate (36.40%) and DMF (25.96%). There were 31 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 14 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 15.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products with a decrease were hydrochloric acid (- 32.17%), chloroform (- 31.51%) and sulfuric acid (- 25.43%). The average rise and fall this month was 1.85%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community formic acid analysts believe that at present, the overall price of domestic industrial grade formic acid market is relatively stable, the cost support is acceptable, and the market demand remains just in demand. It is expected that the formic acid market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

In January, the price of dimethyl ether Market increased mainly in the first half of the month, but continued to decline in the second half of the month. Only in the middle of the month, it remained at the level of 3500 yuan / ton for a few days, and then the price fell back below 3500 yuan. As of the 28th, the average price of main production area in Henan was only a few tens of yuan lower than that at the beginning of the month. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3333.33 yuan / ton on January 1, and 3396.67 yuan / ton on January 28, with an increase of 1.90% within the month, and the largest amplitude of 6.20%. As of January 28, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether are as follows:

Region specification Date Quotation

The mass fraction of DME in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0% on January 28th, > 3350-3430 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0% on January 28th to 3370 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan area: ≥ 99.0% on January 28th ＜ 3410 yuan / ton

In the first half of January, the dimethyl ether market continued the rising trend of the end of 2020. After the festival, due to the strong trend of international crude oil, the price of liquefied gas civil market rose sharply. The news is favorable to the market mentality, and the demand for inventory and replenishment after the festival in the downstream, the market enthusiasm is high, the market transaction atmosphere is good, the manufacturers ship smoothly, the inventory is mostly at a low level, and the ex factory price is greatly increased. In the first half of the month, it only weakened on October 11, but with the rise of international crude oil boosting the LPG market again, the DME market continued to follow the upward trend.

In the second half of the month, the dimethyl ether Market went down one after another. Although the overall decline was small, the market lacked positive support. First of all, in terms of raw material methanol, the methanol market in Shandong was full of twists and turns in January. During the period, most of the methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the overall trend was weak. At present, the freight of methanol market is not reduced, the cost of traders is not low, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high, and some enterprises stop for holidays one after another, and the demand side support is limited. Cost weakness brings limited benefits to the market. The second is the LPG civil market. The international crude oil fell in shock, the news was bad, the market mentality was bad, the market transaction atmosphere was not good, and the manufacturers continuously lowered the ex factory price. With the decline of the civil gas market, the price difference between gas and ether gradually narrowed. Affected by this, the inventory pressure of dimethyl ether increased, and mainly followed the decline.

At present, the main production areas of Henan market mostly to stop falling to stabilize, Shandong and Hebei markets also follow to stabilize. The weak cost of methanol has limited support for the market, the rebound of civil gas market has brought some support to the dimethyl ether Market, the mentality of the downstream has improved, the enthusiasm for entering the market has increased, the inventory pressure of manufacturers has eased, and the price has stopped falling. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, there may be a slight rise in the market before and after the festival, but the market terminal demand is limited. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market may fall more and rise less in February.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of bulk commodities, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus was slightly lower this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 16733.33 yuan / ton last Thursday and 16666.66 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price of yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced within the week, with a range of 0.4%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price is basically stable, slightly lower than last week. At present, there are few new orders in the market, and the enterprises mainly make orders in the early stage, and the delivery volume before the festival is also very small. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16300-16600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 16900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 16500 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole is stable, and the downstream procurement is mainly cautious. The price of 28% low-grade phosphate rock in Guizhou Province is around 300-330 yuan / ton. Compared with a week ago, the price fluctuates little, the market atmosphere is general, and the orders are mainly in the early stage of delivery.

In terms of coke, the demand of downstream steel plants is better in the near future, the negotiation atmosphere at the port is warm, the overall supply of coke is tight, which supports the traders’ attitude of supporting the price, and the trade price is relatively strong. In the future, we will focus on the maintenance and production limit plan of downstream steel plants and the change of coke inventory in each link. The market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) is 3030 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous trading day and 500 yuan / ton higher than that of the same period last month. The market price of Liupanshui coke (secondary metallurgical coke) is 2670 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day and 370 yuan / ton higher than that of the same period last month.

This week, the phosphoric acid market continued to maintain a stable consolidation, with few new orders in the market. The downstream stock market entered the closing stage a year ago. There was no major change in the quotation of enterprises, and the phosphoric acid Market tended to be stable.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus will fall this week. At present, the tight spot market has been eased, and the business owners issue orders in the early stage, with a small amount of replenishment in the downstream. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4100.00 yuan / ton on the 1st, 4175.00 yuan / ton on the 28th, with an increase of 0.91%. The current price has increased by 0.91% on a month on month basis, and the current price has decreased by 3.75% on a year-on-year basis.

In January, the domestic potassium nitrate market continued to rise. Due to the tight supply of domestic potassium, some regions turned to import potassium. The floor trading atmosphere was good, and the supply of goods on the market was insufficient. Downstream factories just needed to purchase in the early spring festival. The potassium nitrate manufacturers had a positive attitude, and the potassium nitrate market rose. According to the statistics of the business society, this week the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 4000-4500 yuan / ton (quotation for reference only) According to the different purchasing situation, the quotation is different.

Recently, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2050 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the distribution quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride at the weekend is 2300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Recently, the supply of new products in the potassium chloride market is relatively limited, and the ports are shipping in succession, and the market is consolidation at a high level.

In the near future, the new arrival of potassium chloride in domestic ports is relatively limited, the inventory in the field is low, and the cost support is good. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic caprolactam market in late January was warmer than that in the first half of the month, and the spot price showed a certain correction, but the current price is still lower than that at the beginning of the month. As of January 27, the average offer price of caprolactam sample enterprises in the business community was 10683.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.88% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

At the beginning of this month, the domestic caprolactam price continued the high callback at the end of last year. After the festival, the spot price continued to decrease due to the recovery of supply. However, in the second half of the month, there were changes in the supply side. The load of Haili chemical plant was low, and the operation rate of Baling Hengyi fluctuated. At present, Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price 10750 yuan / ton, cash factory, factory capacity of 300000 tons, the actual deal can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price 11600 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, about 80% of the unit operating rate. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price 11300 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year plant is now back to normal operation, acceptance delivery. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11300 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance.

The price of upstream pure benzene has recently declined. Although the news of crude oil and external market is good, the inventory of downstream raw materials is high, and the enthusiasm of stock preparation and purchase before the festival is not high; moreover, the spot price of domestic pure benzene declines due to the impact of the low price of northern hydrogenation benzene. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 5000 tons lower than last week. News within the week Brunei Hengyi benzene plant failure, is expected to have a certain impact on later shipping. Affected by the public health events and the rain and snow weather in the north, many downstream units are expected to stop, and the demand for pure benzene is weakening. Styrene is still expected to decline, which may drag down pure benzene. However, crude oil, high support outside the market, pure benzene is expected to decline little.

Future forecast

Business community caprolactam analysts believe that: at present, the upstream pure benzene market is general, and the cost support for caprolactam is weakened. At present, the domestic caprolactam market is mainly oriented by the supply side, and the supply is tight in the second half of January, driving the price to pick up. The trading atmosphere of downstream PA6 improved, the operating rate was acceptable, and the increase of just needed replenishment also supported the price of caprolactam. However, in the near future, the supply and demand of caprolactam market tends to be balanced. It is expected that caprolactam market will gradually enter the pre festival market, and the market will be light with a narrow range of material price adjustment.