On March 18, international oil prices plummeted, while domestic oil product prices and MTBE market prices fell steadily. According to the data of business news agency, the price of MTBE was 5743 yuan / ton on March 19, a one-day drop of only 0.46%.

According to business news agency monitoring, oil prices have been falling for five consecutive trading days. At the macro level, due to the release of water from the Federal Reserve and central banks, inflation expectations continued to rise, US bond yields rose, and the prices of risky assets such as stock markets and commodities were suppressed. On Thursday, the market’s expectation of inflation intensified and the tide of US debt selling hit. The yield of 10-year US debt rose to more than 1.7% for the first time in 14 months. The strengthening of the US dollar led to the decline of the stock index and the sharp drop of oil price. In addition, the pace of global economic recovery was once again dragged down by the epidemic. This time, it mainly came from the European region. The European vaccination process was blocked, which led to the expectation of slower economic recovery, Oil prices are under pressure. WTI and Brent crude oil fell to two-week lows one after another. WTI closed below US $60. WTI crude oil hit the biggest one-day decline in the second half of the year.

The international oil price plummeted. Under the bad news, the bearish sentiment of MTBE market rose, and the overall buying and selling atmosphere of MTBE weakened. However, gasoline production remained at a high level. By the week of March 17, the average operating load of primary atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit of Shandong Di Lian was about 73%. The market demand for MTBE remains high. In addition, domestic gasoline prices remained at a high level of 7000 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of nearly 0.93%. Therefore, the domestic MTBE market price decline is far less than that of crude oil.

MTBE product analysts of business society energy branch think: the impact of the sharp drop in crude oil price has not yet affected the gasoline and MTBE markets, but the sharp drop in crude oil price is bound to lower the price center of MTBE market. In addition, the domestic MTBE price is at a high level, so it is expected that the price of MTBE market will soon callback.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of March 16, pet water bottle manufacturers had quoted 7450.00 yuan / ton. This week, the market of PET bottle chips rose first and then decreased, with narrow finishing. The raw material ethylene glycol fluctuated in a narrow range. The cost support of PET was insufficient, and the overall market was weak.

PET raw material price is weak, market supply and demand is balanced, negotiation focus is stable, inventory is high, pet cost side support is general, negotiation atmosphere is flat, downstream demand quantity is limited, short-term shock finishing is main, at present, the mainstream reference price in North China is 7400-7600 yuan / ton, negotiation focus is stable, wait-and-see is main, negotiation in South China is flat, reference price is 6700-7200 yuan / ton, North China is low The regional reference price is 7000-7200 yuan / ton, and the East China price is 7200-7300 yuan / ton. The overall market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the purchasing enthusiasm is general.

Manufacturer / region: Quotation (yuan / ton) date

Zhejiang wankai polyester bottle chip 7400 March 16

Zhuhai China Resources Co., Ltd. ﹣ 7450 ﹣ March 16

Henan Anhua polyester bottle chip 7400 March 16

Yizheng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. – polyester bottle piece 7300 March 16

Xiamen Tenglong polyester bottle chip Co., Ltd. 7300 March 16

Guangdong Taibao polyester bottle chip 7400 March 16

The upstream ethylene glycol is in weak operation, with low price and frequent low price, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. On March 15, the ethylene glycol commodity index was 57.77, up 0.33 points from yesterday, down 44.91% from the highest point of 104.87 points (2011-09-18) in the cycle, and up 72.29% from the lowest point of 33.53 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Rubber and plastic index: on March 15, the rubber and plastic index was 823 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 22.36% from 1060 points (March 14, 2012), the highest point in the cycle, and up 55.87% from 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community pet analysts believe that: lack of raw material support, pet market in the short term weak operation. (to know more about the latest market trends of pet industry chain, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, help enterprises to operate, help stock investment, help futures investment, log in the business community’s small programs, release commodity prices, promote promotional products, obtain commodity information, and grasp commodity prices.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (March 15): 207.50 yuan / ton

On March 15, the price of hydrochloric acid mixture in Shandong increased by 2.50 yuan / ton, or 1.22%, compared with the price quoted on March 12. The market of liquid chlorine in the upper reaches is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid. The market of silica and ammonium chloride in the lower reaches rises slightly, which brings certain benefits to the price of hydrochloric acid. At the same time, the recent increase in enterprise maintenance, hydrochloric acid supply is tight, downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. The by-product acid is still impacting the market, and the pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is greater.

Recently, the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the quotation is about 210 yuan / ton.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde this week was 6466 yuan / ton at the weekend and 6533 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a price drop of 1.02%.

2、 Market analysis

On March 9, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offered 6300 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax, which was the same as last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 6300 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory price of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax is 6800 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that of the last time. The manufacturer’s price is higher, so the price is reduced. Paraformaldehyde market is fair, mainly used in pesticide resin.

The upstream raw material methanol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of Shandong producers was 2335 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 2462 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a price increase of 5.46%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community polyoxymethylene analysts expect that the upstream methanol market is better, polyoxymethylene prices may rise.

Spot market: raw materials fell after the drop of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of pure polyester yarn in Shandong Province was about 14333 yuan / ton, down 600 yuan / ton, down 4.0% compared with the previous high of 14933 yuan / ton. Fujian traders take more goods at low price, and the high-level turnover of the factory is rare, and more orders are delivered in the early stage. Some of the shortage of the yarn factory still have 7-10 days, if the market continues to be sluggish, next week the pressure of the mill will increase, the decline will accelerate.

Upstream polyester staple fiber: yesterday, short fiber futures continued to fall sharply, reaching a drop in the session, pf05 contract closed at 7370 yuan / T, down 404 from the settlement price of the previous day. Some of the factory’s quotations were lowered, and the focus of semi smooth 1.4d was reduced to 7400-7600 yuan / ton. The production and sales of the factory are light, with an average of about 6%. Jiangsu and Zhejiang half light 1.4d mainstream 7050-7600 yuan / ton, Fujian half light 1.4d mainstream 7600-7700 yuan, Shandong, Hebei mainstream 7500-7700 yuan.

Downstream demand: the export orders in March to May are lower than expected, the enthusiasm of textile factories to inquire and pick up yarn has been significantly reduced, and the price reduction momentum is relatively fierce; some yarn factories have been actively starting to reduce their quotation due to the phenomenon of tired warehouse after Spring Festival or the order of medium and short-term lines is insufficient. The whole yarn and grey cloth are in the trend of “mountain rain is coming to wind and full of buildings” with the wide correction of raw polyester staple fiber.

Suggestions: the futures market continues to decline, and the wait-and-see mentality is aggravating. At present, 7000 points in the market are not willing to break. Later, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the impact of raw material price and downstream demand.

In March, Shandong propane market ushered in a rising market. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average market price of propane was 3932.50 yuan / ton on March 4 and 4250.75 yuan / ton on March 8, with an increase of 8.09% during the period, and 5.39% on March 8, with an increase of 6.80% compared with March 1.

As of March 8, the mainstream propane prices in different regions in China are as follows:

Mar. 8, 2007

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4250-4300 yuan / ton

In North China,% (V / V) is not less than 95.4000-4120 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province,% (V / V) propane is not less than 95.4000-4250 yuan / ton

In South China,% (V / V) is not less than: 95 4520-4850 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4400-4650 yuan / ton

After the festival, propane market rose first and then fell, and the overall market trend was weak. Entering March, Shandong propane market ushered in a recovery. On the 4th, it began to rise. On the 8th, the price rose significantly. Shandong propane market rose by 5.58% on a single day, with an increase range of 100-240 yuan / ton. The rally was mainly driven by international crude oil. The results of the OPEC + meeting finally came to fruition, and the organization agreed to extend the oil production reduction to April. Saudi Arabia, OPEC leader, said it would extend the plan of voluntarily reducing production by 1 million barrels per day and decide when to phase out the reduction in the next few months. In addition, Russia and Kazakhstan were allowed to increase production by 130000 B / D and 20000 B / D respectively. The results of the meeting exceeded market expectations and pushed the oil price up to the highest level in more than a year. Propane Market in this favorable situation, the price has been rising. The enthusiasm of the downstream market has improved compared with the previous period, but the current market demand is still weak, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general. The trend of domestic propane market is also different between the north and the south. The north market is rising obviously, especially in Shandong market. The south market is mostly stable, but due to the lack of demand, individual market declines.

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco announced in March that there was an increase in propane and butane. Propane was $625 / T, up $20 / T from last month; butane was $595 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

In March, CP was introduced. Although the price of propylene butane rose, the rising rate did not meet the expectation, which brought Limited benefits to the market. The rising market is mainly driven by the sharp rise of international crude oil, and the market demand is still weak. Although the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has improved, the market rise is still limited. Propane market is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 3566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3616.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 50 yuan / ton, or 1.40%, up 30.41% over the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market rose this week, with the commodity index of 94.76 on March 5.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 3850 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 3400 yuan / ton, stable compared with the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 3600 yuan / ton, stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was high this week. The quotation of small material is 720 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of medium material is 800 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of large material is 800 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The price of raw materials in the upstream was high and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices fell slightly this week. PVC quotation fell by 2.00% from 8750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8575.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 37.47%. This week, PVC prices fell slightly, the market is general, downstream calcium carbide purchasing enthusiasm is normal, overall, this week’s PVC market has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of March, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. Although the downstream PVC market has dropped slightly recently, the same ratio is high, and the downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall slightly in mid March.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of domestic light potassium carbonate this week is 6625.00 yuan / ton, which is stable. The current price is up 0.76% month on month, and the current price is up 3.92% year on year.

Recently, the domestic potash market has been stable with low market inventory. Most of the orders in the early stage of the factory have not been completed, and the orders are mainly shipped in the early stage. The potash market has a general trading atmosphere and stable market. According to the statistics of the business society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6400-6700 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the different procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers was stable: on March 5, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 2050 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On March 5, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2260 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. This week potassium chloride market high consolidation, little volatility.

Potash analysts of business news agency believe that the recent potash supply at the port is not sufficient, and the stock in the market is small, showing an upward trend. Under the support of cost, it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will rise mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

In February, the liquid ammonia market rebounded after falling. According to the monitoring of the business community, the overall decline of liquid ammonia in the whole month was 0.20%.

Before the year, the market was in a downward trend, which was mainly affected by the light atmosphere before the festival, the decline of purchasing intention and the loose supply. With the recovery of natural gas supply in Southwest China before the festival, the supply of liquid ammonia has been eased, the amount of ammonia continues to increase, and the price in Southwest China also continues to decline, with a range of 400-500 yuan / ton. However, some enterprises in Shandong, Henan and other regions are still short of normal supply in the short term, and the prices in this region are relatively resistant. The decrease is only 200-300 yuan / ton.

After the year, the market gradually warmed up, the long-distance transportation recovered rapidly, and the liquid ammonia market ushered in the delivery period. As the inventory of liquid ammonia of most manufacturers has declined, it has also cleared the way for the price rise. After the festival, the demand for urea, phosphate fertilizer and other downstream products has picked up, and the purchase has increased. The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong and Hebei has also picked up significantly.

In terms of urea, the overall trend of urea in February was good, with a strong increase of 6.47%. The urea market continued to be affected by the higher demand for spring stock. The fertilizer use in spring was expected to rise, and the price continued to rise. After the festival, the market growth slowed down slightly, mainly because of the high price of urea, some liquid ammonia enterprises switched to urea, the supply of urea was loose, and the price stopped rising.

As far as the downstream compound fertilizer is concerned, it generally rose. According to the monitoring of the business society, the growth rate of monoammonium phosphate was 17.25% in February, and that of diammonium phosphate was 16.27% (as shown in the figure above). In February, the downstream demand rose as a whole. In agriculture, driven by the concentration of spring ploughing, the price gradually increased. In addition, with the increase of foreign export demand, the price of ammonium phosphate was high.

In the future, the business community believes that the liquid ammonia market may gradually return to stability in March, and the operation rate of the downstream product industry will gradually double, which has a certain support for the liquid ammonia Market. Some enterprises begin to recover ammonium nitrate plants, and the downstream procurement may be increased later. Moreover, the current urea price is high, and the overall pressure on the supply of liquid ammonia is not big. With the start of the spring ploughing season, the price of liquid ammonia in the later stage may still rise There is room for inflation.

This round of domestic BD rising market can be described as “out of control”. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of March 1, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 31750 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 133.46% and a year-on-year increase of 228%. The quotation of production enterprises continued to rise, and the market follow-up sentiment was high. In a short period of time, the BDO market rose sharply.

The domestic BDO market continues to rise. Some enterprises’ quotation continued to rise, and the transaction price of individual bidding enterprises was high. The main reason for this price rise is still the shortage of goods. “Goods in hand” has become a popular topic for a while. Even if the price is a little higher, the transaction can still be concluded, but the trading volume is generally low. Most of the production enterprises maintain long-term contract customers, basically no external sales. Xinye stopped for a short time due to hydrogen problem, Dongyuan replaced the catalyst on February 20-26, and Panjin Dalian was short of raw materials, resulting in the load dropping to 50-60%. The market supply side was supported by favorable conditions, and the supplier’s intention to support the market remained unchanged. At present, the lower reaches of the general normal start-up, demand goods actively, BDO market eventually broke years of “Silence” situation, “soaring.”.

For the unit, Dongyuan 100000 ton unit was shut down from February 20 to 26 to replace the catalyst. Due to the shortage of raw materials, the load of Panjin Dalian was reduced to 50%; the Yanchang oil plant was unstable, and the load was about 50%; the black cat has been restarted, and the load was about 50%; one set of great wall energy plant was stable, and the other set was still under maintenance; the Xinye plant was shut down due to hydrogen problem on February 14 to February 21.

The current factory strong offer, tight supply situation continues. BDO business analysts expect that the domestic BDO market in the short term high volatility.