According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, before the National Day holiday at the end of September, Xinjiang Meike and Lanshan Tunhe announced the settlement price in September and the listing price in October. On October 9 after the festival, the latest domestic BDO market price was 8800 yuan / ton, up 2.33% month on month and 7.56% lower than the same period last year. Part of the implementation of the monthly listing settlement price enterprises have not released the latest quotation. As of today (10.12), the spot bulk water negotiation in East China is 8800-9000 yuan / ton, the barreled bulk water negotiation is 9000-9800 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery), the bulk water negotiation in South China is 8800-9100 yuan / ton, and the barreled water negotiation is 9000-9800 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery).

Some enterprises announced the settlement price in September and the listing price in October:

Settlement in September (bulk water delivery) listing in October (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 8350 yuan / ton, South China 8500 yuan / ton, East China 9200 yuan / ton, South China 9400 yuan / ton

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 8350 yuan / ton, South China 8500 yuan / ton, East China 9100-9400 yuan / ton, South China 8200-9500 yuan / ton

At present, the situation of Dongyuan restart is not as expected, and the main supply of goods is North China; Tianye, Xinye and heimao are still in parking, and the restart time is uncertain; in the recent commissioning of Yanchang oil, it is expected to produce products at the end of October and early November; the operation of other devices is relatively stable.

At present, the spot supply is still tight, supporting manufacturers’ high offer to support the market. Downstream contract procurement is the main part, and other downstream inventory and spot replenishment demand are pushed up by manufacturers, and the focus continues to rise. Business agency BDO analysts expect that this week the domestic BDO market high finishing.

In September 2020, the domestic 1 ᦇ tin ingot Market fluctuated and fell, with the average price of domestic market at 144887.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 143250 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 1.13%.

On September 29, the tin commodity index was 72.97, up 0.98 points compared with yesterday, 27.21% lower than 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and 70.25% higher than the lowest 42.86 points on December 09, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In September, Lunxi, Xihu, Wuxi, Wuxi and Wuxi futures market mainly fluctuated downward, closing at 145800 yuan / ton on the first day and 141720 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with the highest value of 148690 yuan / ton and the lowest of 138180 yuan / ton, falling by 4080 yuan / ton or 2.8%. It was mainly affected by the sharp fall of US stocks, the rebound of the US dollar index and the decline of the nonferrous metal market. In the middle of the month, the US dollar index went down, but then continued to rebound. In the near end of the month, the US dollar continued to fluctuate under the influence of foreign public events. The trend of metal market is fluctuating this month.

The spot market followed the trend of Shanghai and Wuxi this month, and the overall trend was mainly volatile. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of domestic spot market was 144000-146000 yuan / ton. Myanmar’s export ban was extended to the end of October. Affected by local public health, the export of the mine was blocked. According to the latest statistics, the domestic tin ore import in August decreased by 37% year-on-year, with an import of 8077 tons. In terms of refined tin, the import volume in August was 348 tons, down 87.5% month on month. Although the production of yinman has been resumed in China, it can only partially improve the domestic supply situation. During the long holiday, there will be more uncertainties in the international fundamentals, and there will be some pressure on the market after the holiday.

As for the future market, the business community believes that it is necessary to focus on fundamental factors such as the US dollar index, the progress of public health events in Europe, and LME inventory situation, while the domestic focus on the inventory situation.

Relevant data:

Us tin imports increased month on month in July, while exports declined: Washington reported on September 4, according to the data released by the US Department of Commerce, US tin imports in July were 2147053kg, higher than 1340193kg in June, and the total imports in the first seven months of this year were 20589033kg. U.S. tin exports in July were 129475kg, lower than 169541kg in June. In the first seven months of this year, US exports totaled 1077194kg.

Indonesia’s refined tin export in August increased by 11.6% year-on-year: according to the data released by Indonesia’s Ministry of trade on September 8, Indonesia’s refined tin export volume in August was 6158.67 tons, up 11.6% over the same period of last year and 27.1% higher than that of the previous month.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid continued to fall in September. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8440 yuan / ton, down 1.52% from the beginning of the month, and 16.02% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

In September, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend dropped slightly. So far, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiated in various regions is 7600-8500 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid demand is general, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is mainly down. The domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, and the hydrofluoric acid plant is running stably. The manufacturers report that the recent delivery situation is not good, and the on-site price is lower. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 7600-8300 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 7600-8500 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend has mainly declined, some manufacturers reflect that hydrofluoric acid exists in the cracks, some manufacturers report that the domestic hydrofluoric acid transaction situation is poor, and the hydrofluoric acid trading market is weak.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite decreased slightly in September. As of the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2666.67 yuan / ton, and the price rose slightly by 0.42% in September. The domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, the downstream market was not improved, and the trend of fluorite price was mainly stable. By the end of the month, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. The fluctuation of fluorite price in the market was a negative factor in the hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price decreased slightly.

In September, the market trend of domestic refrigerants fell, the demand of domestic refrigerant industry did not improve significantly, the start-up of refrigerant industry remained low, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid decreased slightly. The foreign economic development is general, but the refrigerant terminal export has not changed much. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level, and the after-sales demand for maintenance is weak. On the whole, the foreign demand has not improved significantly. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price drops slightly. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction center of gravity is shifted downward. Some traders are looking for positive shipment, and the quotation is slightly lower than the manufacturer’s ex factory price. There is a phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 15000-15500 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a market rose slightly, but the automobile market industry continued to be depressed, the demand was weak, the market trading center was low, and the transaction atmosphere was light. With sufficient supply of goods in the market and the impact of new production capacity entering the market, the competition is fierce, the supply side gradually forms a negative situation, the price fluctuates at a low level, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid falls slightly.

On the whole, hydrofluoric acid market is mainly declining, but the upstream raw material fluorite market has an upward trend, and the demand for downstream refrigerant industry has not improved significantly. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business club, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may remain volatile.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week is 1516 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable.

2、 Market analysis

Anhui Jinhe quoted 1350-1400 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1750 yuan / T, which was flat compared with last time; Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. offered 1400 yuan / T of concentrated nitric acid, which was flat compared with last week; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. offered 1350 yuan / T of concentrated nitric acid, which was flat compared with last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd., concentrated nitric acid Co., Ltd The quotation of nitric acid is 1530 yuan / ton, that of dilute nitric acid is 680 yuan / ton, and that of concentrated nitric acid is the same as that of last week; the trading of nitric acid market is acceptable.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the upstream product liquid ammonia is temporarily stable this week; the downstream aniline is up 2.76% this week; the TDI quotation is temporarily stable this week.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid analysts of business club predict that the price of nitric acid will be stable.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has been running steadily recently. As of September 27, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2553 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.83% compared with 2390 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. At present, there are 2450-2600 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2520-2580 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2630-2700 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2400-2450 yuan / ton in Henan, 2500-2530 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2100 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.3000

Hualu Hengsheng 50.1600

Yangtze BP 50 1300

Jiangsu Sopu 120 3500

Celanese 1200 2500

Jiantao, Hebei, 50.1400

Tianjin Bohua 35.1000

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Longyu, Henan 50.1300

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 30.1000

Shanghai Huayi 70.1800

Anhui Huayi 50.1200

Dalian Hengli 35.1100

In recent years, the domestic acetic acid market has maintained stable operation, the trading before the festival has been basically completed, the market purchasing enthusiasm has decreased, the enterprise start-up has generally returned to the normal level, the overall inventory in the industry is still at a low level, the spot supply in the market is relatively loose, and the operation tends to be stable in the short term.

In the upstream market, the methanol market is stable before the festival, with few offers for logistics goods. Most of the operators wait and see, and the market transaction is average. At present, it is about 1790 yuan / ton. In terms of downstream, the transaction of acetic acid downstream industries, such as vinyl acetate and acetate, is flat. Enterprises mainly focus on delivery contracts. The preparation of goods before the festival is basically completed, and the operation is stable in a short period of time.

In recent years, the international acetic acid market has been running steadily, and the Asian acetic acid market has been slightly higher under the support of supply decline and expected increase in demand, and the current quotation is about 315-370 US dollars / ton; the supply of acetic acid in European market is relatively down, and the price is stable and upward, at present, 550 euro / ton; the North American market has limited supply, and the price of acetic acid is firm and upward, about 550 US dollars / ton.

The acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that the domestic acetic acid market starts stably at present. Affected by the logistics control, the downstream and traders’ purchase is basically completed, and the trade in the industry is light. Due to the small inventory pressure of enterprises, the market is stable in a short period of time.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products fell. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong was 1385.25 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1357.75 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 1.99% and 10.28% higher than that of last year. On September 24, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 107.16, flat with yesterday, down 31.13% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), and 60.20% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The market of petroleum coke is greatly affected by the coming of the double festival, and the price of petroleum coke rises and falls. In terms of low sulfur coke, due to the limited resources of low sulfur coke and better downstream demand, the price of low sulfur coke is still good. In terms of medium and high sulfur coke, the downward risk is relatively large, because the trend of electrolytic aluminum is obvious.

Upstream: the US WTI crude oil futures market price rose, and the settlement price of main contracts rose by US $0.38 to US $40.31/barrel. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts rising by $0.20 to $42.46/barrel. Oil prices rose slightly, mainly supported by signs of tight US crude oil supply.

Downstream: in recent years, the general trend of glass spot market is general, and the delivery speed of production enterprises has not changed much, mainly to increase the funds for delivery and withdrawal, and the market prices of some manufacturers have been adjusted sporadically. At present, the orders of processing enterprises are fair, the purchase of glass is mainly based on rigid demand, and the market transaction is general. At the same time, most of the production lines for ignition and resumption in some areas also play a normal capacity, increasing the supply capacity of the local and surrounding areas. Generally speaking, there is little change in the inventory of traders and production enterprises. In terms of carbon, the recent price drop in the raw material market is good for carbon formation, but the downstream electrolytic aluminum continues to decline, which is a blow to the mentality of the industry. It is expected that the carbon price will be under pressure in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 37th week of 2020 (9.14-9.18), among which there are 2 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the total commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities of increase are WTI crude oil (9.84%), Brent crude oil (8.09%) and MTBE (3.61%). There were two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis. The top two products were LPG (- 1.88%) and fuel oil (- 1.36%). This week, the average rise and fall was 1.85%.

Business agency petroleum coke analysts believe: the current decline in the price of petroleum coke, the price of weak operation, manufacturers before the festival more stable shipment, inventory control. It is expected that the current trend of Petroleum Coke will continue before the festival, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market fell slightly in the first half of this week, and stabilized in the second half. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3560 yuan / ton, down 1.93% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices fell slightly this week. Port inventory stopped falling and rebounded. As of the end of this week, the East China region was about 127000 tons, with an increase of 17000 tons compared with last week. The pressure to go to the warehouse has rebounded, and the price is slightly weak in the near future. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand improved, isomer xylene demand slightly improved, market transactions improved, overall supply and demand situation tended to be stable. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3560 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia at the OPEC + meeting called for a “cheating country” to cut production, boosting market sentiment, making oil prices rise continuously, leading to a “dramatic reversal” in the crude oil market, the largest weekly increase since June. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $3.445/barrel to close at $42.49/barrel, up 8.82% from last week.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4600 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price was about 544 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 562 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will usher in an adjustment trend. In terms of PTA market, the market price began to stabilize this week. The domestic PTA spot market price was about 3504 yuan / ton, and the external price was about 443 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will stabilize and rebound next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / ton, and the external price of o-benzene is about 540 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 558 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will stabilize and rebound next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data, and the implementation of OPEC + production reduction. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the impact of US dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, xylene prices in the domestic market are expected to stabilize next week.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fell first and then rose in September, and the overall zinc price remained stable. As of September 21, the average price of zinc was 20493.33 yuan / ton, down 0.47% from 20590.00 yuan / ton on September 1.

Domestic zinc production

Date current month output (10000 tons) cumulative output (10000 tons)

August 2020 53.9-410.9

July 2020: 52.4-356.9

June 2020 52 304.8

May 2020 51.4 252.7

April 2020 51.7-201.3

March 2020 48.9 149.5

February 2020 – 104

December 2019 60.7-623.6

November 2019 59.4 569.2

October 2019 54.8 512.3

September 2019 54.8-458.3

August 2019 52.8 403.4

July 2019 51.2 343.8

June 2019 51.3 281.5

May 2019 48.226.9

April 2019 46.5-176.5

March 2019 45.3-130.6

February 2019 – 85.1

It can be seen from the table that the monthly output of zinc ingots in domestic zinc market has increased on a month on month basis, and the cumulative output has increased. Zinc market supply growth, zinc market downward pressure increased. In the first ten days of September, the price of zinc fluctuated and fell.

Zinc inventory in Shanghai market

Time this week inventory increase / decrease

Subtotal futures

9.1-9.6 74325 26776 -685 -2930

9.7-9.13 58453 20774 -15872 -6002

9.14-9.20 62495 19072 4042 -1702

It can be seen from the table that the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures exchange market decreased significantly in September, and the futures inventory decreased significantly. With the advent of “golden nine silver decade”, domestic zinc market demand increased and zinc market inventory decreased. The rising power of zinc market increased, and the price of zinc recovered and rose in mid September.

Analysis, review and Prospect

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, the price of zinc first rose and then fell in September. Domestic zinc ingot output increased from January to August, the supply of zinc market increased, and the downward pressure of zinc price increased. In the first ten days of September, zinc price fluctuated and fell; in September, the spot zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market fell first and then rose, and futures inventory fell sharply. With the advent of the golden age, the demand of zinc market is rising, the output of zinc market is rising, and the supply of zinc market is increasing. The overall supply and demand of zinc market is basically stable. It is expected that the future zinc market will be stable.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 18, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 6883.33 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic DMF market price was high and firm, and the market went up. Compared with the same period last month, the price rose by 8.12% and 1.72% compared with the beginning of September.

This week, the DMF market showed an upward trend. The downstream demand increased, the shipment was smooth, the replenishment was positive, the center of gravity was firm, and the high level was moved up. As of September 18, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 6850 yuan / T, Zhangqiu Riyue 6800 yuan / T, Hualu Hengsheng 7000 yuan / T, Shaanxi Xinghua 6200 yuan / T, East China 7400-7600 yuan / T, and South China 7800-8000 yuan / T.

The upstream methanol just needs to purchase, the current inventory is not high, the enterprise mentality is supported by a certain degree, the current shipment is smooth, and the transaction order is limited.

The chemical index on September 17 was 726 points, up 4 points compared with yesterday, 28.54% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 21.40% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, the DMF market is mainly stable, digesting the early gains, and there is limited room for further growth. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (September 16): 1875.00 yuan / ton

On September 16, the mixed price of potassium chloride in Qinghai was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on September 14. At present, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream purchasing is mainly required, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

Recently, the price of potassium chloride in Qinghai area may fluctuate slightly, with the quotation of 1850-1900 yuan / ton.