According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6500.00 yuan / ton on the 18th, and 6575.00 yuan / ton on the 22nd, an increase of 1.15%. The current price increased by 1.54% month on month and 3.75% year on year.

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

Recently, the domestic potash market is becoming stronger. The inventory of various manufacturers is at a low level, and the market supply is tight. Most downstream factories take goods according to orders. There is less circulation of bulk goods in the trading market. Traders are mainly supplied by old customers. Potash manufacturers have a positive attitude, and the market is soaring. According to the statistics of the business society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6400-6700 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the different procurement situation.

 

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers remained at a high level: on January 22, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 2050 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On January 22, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2300 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. This week, potassium chloride market inventory low, market high consolidation.

 

Analysts of potassium carbonate from business news agency believe that domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have been overhauling in recent years, and the production of devices has been continuously reduced, with less inventory in the field. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

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1、 Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend this week. Xylene price was 3930 yuan / ton on January 10, and 4110 yuan / ton on this Sunday (January 17), 170 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 4.31%.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

Within the week, Sinopec’s xylene increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. In terms of external market, as of January 15, the price of imported xylene from South Korea was 583 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton or 0.17% compared with January 8; the price of imported xylene from East China was 591 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton or 0.17% compared with January 8. The good news of crude oil in the week supported the domestic xylene market price to rise. This week, the xylene inventory of East China port was about 80700 tons, down 15400 tons compared with last week.

 

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell after rising this week, which was lower than last week. Compared with January 8, Brent fell by $0.775/barrel, or 1.42%; WTI rose by $0.16/barrel, or 0.31%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.

 

Downstream, PX market, the domestic PX price this week is more stable than last week, Sinopec’s listed price is about 4700 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 31.88%. As of January 15, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $671-673 / T FOB Korea and US $689-691 / T CFR China.

 

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fluctuated slightly this week. On January 17, the price was 3900 yuan / ton, down 0.2% and 20.14% year on year. As of January 15, PTA industry operating rate was 81.36%.

 

In the ox market, the price of ox fell this week. The price of ox in East China was 4700 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton or 6% from last week. The downstream market is weak and the demand is general. The transaction of o-benzene is weak, and the market of o-benzene is weak.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

 

Affected by the public health events in Hebei and the rain and snow weather in northern China, transportation is limited, and some domestic downstream terminal plants are expected to shut down one after another, resulting in weaker demand for xylene. Toluene prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate next Tuesday. Continue to pay attention to the situation of downstream stock before the Spring Festival, and the impact of gasoline blending price trend on xylene price.

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1、 Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

This week, the distribution price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable, with the quoted price of 317.50 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 49.42 on January 15.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week, with large inventory and general downstream demand. At the end of the week, Heze Jiangyuan quoted 460 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 290 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 400 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Taiyuan kunshengda quoted 120 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

 

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has risen slightly recently, and the cost support is good. However, the market prices of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and bromine in the downstream rose slightly, which had a positive impact on sulfuric acid.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In late January, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been consolidated at a high level in recent years, the market in the lower reaches is better, the purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches is normal, and the product trend rises under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or small shock rise.

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1、 Price trend

 

This week, the EPS market has a good trading direction. At present, the styrene market is rising obviously, the cost support price is rising slightly, and the market transaction is picking up. However, the mentality of downstream businesses is different, and the replenishment mood is cautious.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Ex factory: Zhongshan Taida EPS ex factory price is stable, material acceptance price is 8600 yuan / ton, fuel acceptance price is 8900 yuan / ton, firm offer negotiation. East China’s EPS factories are limited in production and parking, some brands are in tight supply, some businesses are replenishing goods in an appropriate amount, and traders are cautious in operation, with fast in and fast out focusing on profits. As of January 14, Jiangyin Jianlong’s ordinary material was 8350 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton, or 3.09% on a month on month basis, and its fuel was 8650 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton, or 2.98% on a month on month basis.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

It is expected that the domestic EPS price will be stronger in the short term, and weaker in the medium and long term.

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Price trend:

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic ABS market was weak and volatile in early January, and the spot prices of various brands were down. As of January 12, the mainstream offer price of general ABS was about 15450 yuan / ton, down 1.90% from the average price level in early January.

 

Factor analysis:

 

ABS upstream Styrene Market finishing up slightly. In the first ten days of this year, the international crude oil price went up, the pure benzene was benefited, the external ethylene rose, the spot offer was strengthened, and the styrene cost support surface was strengthened. In January, the inventory of northern styrene enterprises decreased, the impact on East China arbitrage weakened, the price of production enterprises rose again, the cost support and some downstream replenishment transactions supported the market to open higher. And the terminal inventory continued to rise, the emergence of class library, on-site supply increased. The overall downstream production and sales declined, but some of the downstream began to prepare for the holiday in succession. The market transactions were improved, and the price rise of production enterprises followed up. It is expected that there is still room for styrene to rise in the short term.

 

Butadiene market continued to be weak in the near future, with a large decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of the sample data as of the 12th was 7170 yuan / ton, down 7.50% from the average price at the beginning of the month. With the gradual release of production after the restart of some domestic units, the market supply side has increased significantly. In addition, the external price has been declining and the supply pressure is still there. In the first ten days of January, the butadiene market was obviously weak due to the supply side drag. At present, the supply price of Sinopec, the main producer, continues to decline, and the market confidence is weak, generally bearish. Short term domestic butadiene market may be difficult to improve.

 

In the first ten days of January, the domestic ABS market continued its downward trend, the upstream butadiene fell a lot, and the cost support weakened. The domestic ABS supply is relatively stable, and the spot stock begins to decrease. The current time point is close to the Spring Festival, and the medium and long-term demand is empty. The market atmosphere is not strong, and the transaction price is low. However, recently, downstream factories have been buying at bargain hunting, and there are stock operations before the festival, which, to a certain extent, lift the market price.

 

Future forecast:

 

Business analysts believe that: in early January, the ABS market was weak, and the prices of various brands fell. On the cost side, the overall bad news is ABS, and the support of cost side is weakened. At present, in addition to the individual terminal stock hot brands in short supply, ABS spot supply is relatively sufficient. The market is about to turn into the off-season of Spring Festival holiday demand, and it is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to decline in the near future.

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1、 Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

This week, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China was temporarily stable, at 280.00 yuan / ton, down. Overall, the hydrochloric acid market is stable this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index at 46.05 on January 8.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From the manufacturer’s quotation, this week’s hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer’s quotation is temporarily stable, the overall market is general. Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid quotation is 480 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 550 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid quotation is 240 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid quotation is 300 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 100 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

 

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain of hydrochloric acid, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the market prices of silica and ammonium chloride in the downstream have a slight drop, which has a negative impact on hydrochloric acid. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole fell this week, hydrochloric acid shipment is still a big problem.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The recent market of liquid chlorine in the upper reaches is general, while the market of silica and ammonium chloride in the lower reaches falls. Business community analysts believe that hydrochloric acid in the recent small shocks, mainly down.

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According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price is stable this week. The average price at the weekend is 4700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 31.88%.

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

The price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable. The domestic PX operation rate is about 60%. The operation of Hongrun 600000 tons new plant is stable, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, Fuhai Chuang plant starts one line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, Yangzi Petrochemical plant is normal, Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable, Qingdao Lidong plant is full load, Qilu Petrochemical plant is stable The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant is running normally, the supply of domestic p-xylene is normal, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of p-xylene plant in Asia was about 70%, and the supply of PX in Asia was normal. The PX external price rose sharply this week. By the end of the week, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was US $676-678 / T FOB South Korea and US $694-696 / t CFR China. The PX external price rose this week, and about 40% of domestic products needed to be imported, so the PX external price closed Higher to the domestic market to bring a certain positive support impact, domestic PX market price trend temporarily stable.

 

The price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose sharply this week. As of the 7th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $50.83/barrel. The price of Brent crude oil futures market rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $54.38/barrel. The oil price continued to rise, and WTI hit the highest point in nearly 11 months. The main reason is that the market is still concerned about Saudi Arabia’s commitment to reduce production and the tension between the United States and Iraq The strong stock market and other factors are favorable for oil prices. The rising trend of international crude oil prices is a good support for domestic petrochemical products. The price trend of domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

 

This week, the price trend of PTA Market in the lower reaches rose. By the end of the week, the negotiation of PTA Market in East China was around 3800-3900 yuan, and the recent PTA downstream orders were acceptable. PTA enterprises had good production enthusiasm, and there was no large-scale maintenance phenomenon. As of January 7, the starting load of domestic PTA production enterprises was 84%, which was at the normal level. At present, the periodic contradiction between supply and demand of PTA is not sharp, and crude oil still brings some support to the market. PTA price is expected to continue the strong oscillation situation, so the price trend of upstream PX is mainly stable.

 

In general, the demand of textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is relatively normal, the terminal demand is general, the upstream PX is mainly purchased on demand, and the price trend of PX market is mainly stable.

 

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that the recent trend of crude oil price remains at a high level, coupled with the rising trend of downstream PYA market price, the domestic PX market supply is normal, and it is expected that the PX market price will rise slightly next week.

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, on January 1, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 18766 yuan / ton. On December 31, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 21833 yuan / ton. The annual price increased by 4000 yuan / ton, or 22.66%.

 

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of silicone DMC from January to December in 2020, it can be seen that silicone DMC will go down in March, July and December in 2020. The biggest decline was in December, with an overall decline of 34.5%, and the biggest increase was in November, with an overall rise of 63.4%. The lowest price of the whole year was on April 21, the reference average price of silicone DMC was 14600 yuan / ton, and the highest price of the whole year was on December 1, the reference average price of silicone DMC was 33333 yuan / ton, the maximum amplitude of the whole year was 128.31%.

 

In the first half of 2020, the market performance of silicone DMC was flat, and the overall market fell

 

In the first half of 2020, the overall performance of China’s domestic silicone DMC market is flat. In January, the market trend of silicone DMC in China was stable. The factories were shut down one after another near the Spring Festival, and the early preparation was coming to an end. The market fluctuation was limited. The mainstream offer of silicone DMC market in January was around 18500-19000 yuan / ton.

 

In February, affected by public health incidents, the domestic logistics was not smooth, the overall recovery of silicone market was slow, most silicone DMC enterprises were closed, the operating rate was low, the downstream participation was not high, and the market atmosphere was weak. In February, the mainstream quotation of silicone DMC was about 19000 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was between 18500-19000 yuan / ton.

 

In March, the domestic silicone DMC market gradually recovered, and the factories began to work one after another. However, the downstream demand failed to follow up in time, and the export was also restricted. Therefore, the inventory of silicone DMC factories began to accumulate at the beginning of this month. Until the end of March, most factories reduced the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC. The market price of silicone DMC dropped sharply, and the average quotation of silicone DMC was 152 00 yuan / ton, a monthly decrease of 20%.

 

Silicone DMC market fell to the bottom in April, now the lowest price of the whole year

 

In April, the silicone market was still weak, the market demand was insufficient, and there was no obvious improvement in the market. The continuous low operation for many days made the manufacturers digest part of the inventory in the early stage. However, due to the terminal market demand still could not be fully released, and the downstream demand was cautious, the factory lowered the ex factory quotation of DMC again, and the silicone DMC dropped to the bottom. On April 22, the silicone DMC was ex factory The annual average price has dropped to 14600 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the DMC market rebounded at the end of the month, with an overall monthly increase of 0.88%, driven by the slight recovery of the downstream Silicone Market and the plan to stop production and limit production at the end of the month.

 

In April, the silicone market was still weak, the market demand was insufficient, and there was no obvious improvement in the market. The continuous low operation for many days made the manufacturers digest part of the inventory in the early stage. However, due to the terminal market demand still could not be fully released, and the downstream demand was cautious, the factory lowered the ex factory quotation of DMC again, and the silicone DMC dropped to the bottom. On April 22, the silicone DMC was ex factory The annual average price has dropped to 14600 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the DMC market rebounded at the end of the month, with an overall monthly increase of 0.88%, driven by the slight recovery of the downstream Silicone Market and the plan to stop production and limit production at the end of the month. In May, the stock up before the labor day in the lower reaches had ended, the market’s ability to receive new orders was weak, and the demand was half. The offer of silicone DMC factory was lowered by 500-1000 yuan / ton. On May 11, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC fell into a trough again, and the market mainstream quotation returned to 14400-15000 yuan / ton. As the price fell to a relatively low level and the lower reaches entered the market on bargain hunting, the market transaction atmosphere improved. The ex factory price of silicone DMC rose slightly, with an overall monthly increase of 1.3%.

 

In June, the domestic silicone market as a whole went well, up 12.88%

 

In June, China’s Silicone DMC market continued to have a good trend at the end of May. Most of the monomer factories had little inventory pressure on silicone DMC, and the quotation continued to be firm. With the mentality of buying up but not buying down in the downstream, the demand also improved, and the inventory available for factories continued to decrease. In addition, some factories shut down for maintenance and supported by various parties, the silicone DMC market continued to rise for three weeks. On June 19, the average market price rose to 17500 yuan / ton 。 In late June, the market quotation has been rising and falling, but it has little influence on the market as a whole. Most factories continue to have a strong trend.

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

As of June 30, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the ex factory prices of silicone DMC were 17533 yuan / ton. Compared with June 1, the average price increased by 2000 yuan / ton, or 12.88%. Compared with the prices of June 1 and June 1, the average price decreased by 1200 yuan / ton, or 6.57%.

 

Silicone DMC has a bright trend in the second half of the year and a rapid rise in November

 

In the second half of 2020, in July and August, the overall trend of the domestic silicone DMC market was relatively flat. In July, affected by the weakening downstream demand and slow factory delivery, most monomer enterprises made profits to ship. The silicone DMC market once went down sharply in the middle and late July, with a decrease of 500-1000 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, under the active control of the factory, the silicone DMC quotation slightly rebounded, At the end of August, DMC’s demand for organic silicon was stable, and DMC’s demand for raw materials was almost flat As of August 31, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 16866 yuan / ton. Compared with August 1, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 266 yuan / ton, up 1.61%.

 

Welcome Jinjiu silicone DMC to rise in an all-round way

 

In September, the domestic silicone DMC continued to rise, and the rise of raw material metal silicon gave strong support to silicone DMC. The market momentum was strong, the downstream demand was good, the attitude of the industry was positive, the mood of buying up but not buying down appeared, the amount of stock replenishment increased, the supply and demand of upstream and downstream were smooth, the market continued to push up, and the price gap between high and low continued to shrink According to the Italian news agency data monitoring, the factory price of silicone DMC is 17800 yuan / ton. Compared with September 1, the average price is increased by 1000 yuan / ton, or 5.53%.

 

Silicone DMC market broke through the sky in November

 

After the National Day in October, the market of organic silicon DMC rose steadily, the downstream demand was good, the trading atmosphere was active, the low-end offer of organic silicon DMC continued to decrease, and the price was close to the high-end concentration. The industry was full of confidence. According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 31, the average price of organic silicon DMC market exceeded 20400 yuan / ton, increased by 2600 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, or 1 4.61%。 In November, silicone DMC continued to open a wide range of channels to pull up. The inventory of the factory was low, and the sealing was common. The downstream demand was insufficient. The offer of silicone DMC factory rose sharply again. In the middle of the month, the market of silicone DMC had exceeded 26000 yuan / ton. As the end of the month, the silicone DMC factory continued to increase the ex factory quotation by a large margin. As of November 30, the mainstream offer of silicone DMC was 33000-34500 yuan / ton, with an average price reference of 33333 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month (November 1), the average price increased by 12933 yuan / ton, or 63.40%.

 

Demand calms down, silicone DMC market falls in December

 

In December, the trend of organosilicon DMC’s soaring was eased. The strong quotation for nearly two months made the downstream industry strongly resist high prices. The wait-and-see mood of the downstream industry increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm also declined. Therefore, on the 2nd of the first month, the leading manufacturers of Shandong organosilicon DMC took the lead in reducing the ex factory quotation of organosilicon DMC by 2000 yuan / ton. As of the 13th, the ex factory quotation of organosilicon DMC was for reference In the range of 32000-33000 yuan / ton. In the following week, some silicone factories lowered their DMC ex factory quotation twice, with a reduction range of 1000-5500 yuan / ton within one week. As of the 21st, the market mainstream quotation was around 28000-30000 yuan / ton. After the decline of silicone DMC, there was no large-scale replenishment in the lower reaches, and most of them were still waiting to fall. On the 25th, individual manufacturers of silicone DMC in Shandong sharply reduced the ex factory quotation of DMC to 22000 yuan / ton, down by 5000 yuan / ton. The rest of the factories also began to reduce the profit and shipment, and gradually reduced the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC. For a time, “the market dropped a lot”, and the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC was around 22000-23000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of December, the average price of silicone decreased by 218377 yuan / ton compared with the quoted price of DMC at the beginning of December.

 

Aftermarket analysis

 

With the decline of organosilicon DMC market at the end of 2020, the current market price has returned to a rational level. After new year’s day and approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream will start replenishment one after another. With the increase of demand, the downward space of factory offer is limited. Therefore, the organosilicon DMC Data Engineer of the business community believes that in the early 2021, the organosilicon DMC will continue to expand Most of the market will run smoothly, and prices may rise slightly due to rising demand.

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1、 Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price trend of cryolite market in December was stable, and the average market price at the end of the month was 5800 yuan / ton, down 2.79% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This month, the market of cryolite in Henan Province was weak and stable, the downstream demand was general, and the quotation of enterprises was stable. Most of the cryolite were sold by order, and the market transaction was fair. At present, the annual output of cryolite of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10000 tons, and the plant is running normally; the cryolite of Jiaozuo mingminli Industrial Co., Ltd. is currently in full load production, and the start-up is normal; the annual output of cryolite of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 30000 tons / year, and about 70% of the plant is now in operation. As of the 31st, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan is 5000-6200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation is 5500-6800 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is flexible, and the specific price is mainly based on negotiation.

 

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market price continued to rise. At the end of the month, the average domestic fluorite price was 2718.89 yuan / ton, up 3.91% in the month. The start-up of domestic fluorite plants has declined, the fluorite supply on the site is slightly tight, and the market price rises slightly. It is expected that the fluorite market will rise slightly in the future. In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, the social inventory continues to move down, the domestic demand is strong, the manufacturing industry is steadily rising, the downstream consumption is rising, the supply and demand factors support the strong upward of aluminum price, and it is expected that the market will fluctuate in the future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

At present, the cryolite market is in sufficient stock, the downstream demand generally has no obvious improvement, and the market transaction remains stable. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market will be stable temporarily.

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1、 Trend analysis

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

In 2020, the domestic nickel market will fall first and then rise. According to the data monitoring of business society, the nickel price will be 113733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2020, and will rise to 130700 yuan / ton at the end of 2020, with an increase of 14.92%. Looking at the trend of nickel in the whole year, the nickel price first fell to the lowest price of 92050 yuan / ton on April 2, and then rose to the highest price of 132750 yuan / ton on December 14, with an amplitude of 44.21%.

 

According to the comparison chart of nickel current period of business cooperatives, the trend of nickel current period in 2020 is basically the same, and the futures price is very close to the spot price. Near the end of the year, the spread expands and the main basis is positive, which is bad for buying hedging.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From January to early April, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, domestic production and resumption of work were slow, and enterprises almost stagnated. In particular, the demand of downstream civilian areas of terminals was obviously affected by the epidemic situation of coronavirus infection, including stainless steel products (construction, decoration, tableware, equipment), electroplating (cars and bathrooms), batteries (cars, 3C digital), which led to repeated nickel prices fall.

 

Nickel prices rose sharply (early April to December): at the beginning of April, with the resumption of production by domestic enterprises, nickel mines in the Philippines decreased, the decrease in supply was more clear than that in the earlier period, and the demand increased. Nickel prices began to rise slowly. Due to the epidemic situation, several major mining areas in the Philippines were closed down gradually, and the shipment ban was delayed from the initial April 18 to the end of April. Later, the blockade was extended to August 18 again. As China’s largest nickel exporter, the Philippines continued to rise due to the decline of nickel supply. In December, Indonesia’s ore price rose and the Philippines’ mine delivery dropped seasonally. In addition, the recent frequent support policies for new energy around the world, the market’s enthusiasm for nickel for new energy rose again, and the nickel price rose to the highest price of the whole year.

 

Import and export of nickel in 2010-2020

 

From 2010 to 2013, the net import of nickel increased year by year, and from 2013 to 2020, the net import of nickel decreased year by year. In November 2020, China imported 12873 tons of refined nickel (unwrought and rolled non alloy nickel and other unwrought and rolled non alloy nickel with total nickel and cobalt content ≥ 99.99% and cobalt content ≤ 0.005%), with a month on month growth of 53% and a year-on-year growth of 80.38%. Among them, the proportion of other unwrought alloy nickel was 91.25%, accounting for 11747 tons, an increase of 4095 tons compared with October; while the proportion of unwrought non alloy nickel with total nickel and cobalt content ≥ 99.99% and cobalt ≤ 0.005% was about 1126.9 tons, an increase of 365 tons compared with October. In 2020, the annual import volume of nickel is estimated to be 129700 tons, and the export volume is 19600 tons.

 

Global nickel and China’s nickel production in 2010-2020

 

Compared with 2018 and 2019, global nickel production in 2020 will decrease slightly, while China’s nickel production will increase slightly. From January to October 2020, the global output of refined nickel is 1.9586 million tons, and the demand is 1.8949 million tons. In November 2020, China’s Refined Nickel output was 13667 tons, with a month on month increase of 10.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%. From January to November 2020, China will produce 150500 tons of refined nickel, an increase of 2.9% year on year. The annual output is expected to reach 164000 tons, an increase of 1.2% year on year.

 

Apparent consumption of nickel in 2010-2020

 

The apparent consumption of nickel in China from January to October 2020 is 2368200 tons, which is lower than that in 2019.

 

Downstream consumption

 

The consumption of nickel mainly depends on stainless steel. 80% of nickel in China is used for forging stainless steel. In 2020, the consumption of primary nickel is expected to reach 1.4 million tons, an increase of 11.1% year on year. In the next few years, the growth rate of nickel driven by new energy is expected to be only 8%.

 

Trend of downstream stainless steel

 

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the price of stainless steel at the beginning of the year was 133663.67 yuan / ton, and it dropped slightly by 1.12% to 13216.67 yuan / ton at the end of the year. The lowest price of the year was 11491.67 yuan / ton on March 30, and the highest price was 13808.33 yuan / ton on September 7, with an amplitude of 20.15%. According to the price comparison chart of the business community, before October 15, the price trend of stainless steel and nickel was basically the same. After that, the price of nickel and stainless steel deviated. The main reason was that the Philippine mining area entered the rainy season in November, which intensified the tension of nickel supply. Combined with Indonesia’s export ban policy, the nickel raw material end was tight, and the nickel price soared sharply. However, due to the weak downstream demand and high inventory of stainless steel, it has not been pulled up for a long time.

 

The “head effect” of China’s new energy vehicle industry appears

 

Since last year, China’s new energy vehicle production and sales have declined due to the overall downturn of the automobile industry, the decline of subsidy policy, and the advance overdraft of shared travel and other operating vehicle markets, which has hindered the development of the industry. However, driven by a number of “leading enterprises”, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are back on the fast track. In September, the sales of new energy vehicles across the country increased by 67.7% year-on-year. Industry insiders said that the new energy vehicle industry is turning to a “self growth” stage driven by technology upgrading and industrial chain improvement.

 

To sum up, in 2020, nickel was first suppressed and then increased. In the first quarter, it fell to the lowest price due to the epidemic situation, and then rose sharply due to the supply shortage. According to statistics, the import and export volume, output and apparent consumption of nickel in 2020 have decreased to varying degrees, so the overall performance is not as good as that in 2019. Indonesia’s ore ban policy will not change in the short term, while the nickel mine in the Philippines is limited by the rainy season. Therefore, the supply of nickel mine is expected to be stretched before the second quarter, and the port inventory is also low. It is expected that the tense situation of nickel in 2021 will continue from the first quarter to the second quarter, but there are still a large number of new production capacity expected to be put into operation in the downstream stainless steel industry. The new energy vehicle market is expected to be better, and it will remain stable in 2021 However, the overall center of gravity may be higher than that in 2020, and the price range is 120000-150000 yuan / ton.

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