1、 Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

This week, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China was temporarily stable, at 280.00 yuan / ton, down. Overall, the hydrochloric acid market is stable this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index at 46.05 on January 8.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From the manufacturer’s quotation, this week’s hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer’s quotation is temporarily stable, the overall market is general. Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid quotation is 480 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 550 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid quotation is 240 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid quotation is 300 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 100 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

 

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain of hydrochloric acid, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the market prices of silica and ammonium chloride in the downstream have a slight drop, which has a negative impact on hydrochloric acid. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole fell this week, hydrochloric acid shipment is still a big problem.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The recent market of liquid chlorine in the upper reaches is general, while the market of silica and ammonium chloride in the lower reaches falls. Business community analysts believe that hydrochloric acid in the recent small shocks, mainly down.

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According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price is stable this week. The average price at the weekend is 4700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 31.88%.

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

The price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable. The domestic PX operation rate is about 60%. The operation of Hongrun 600000 tons new plant is stable, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, Fuhai Chuang plant starts one line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, Yangzi Petrochemical plant is normal, Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable, Qingdao Lidong plant is full load, Qilu Petrochemical plant is stable The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant is running normally, the supply of domestic p-xylene is normal, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of p-xylene plant in Asia was about 70%, and the supply of PX in Asia was normal. The PX external price rose sharply this week. By the end of the week, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was US $676-678 / T FOB South Korea and US $694-696 / t CFR China. The PX external price rose this week, and about 40% of domestic products needed to be imported, so the PX external price closed Higher to the domestic market to bring a certain positive support impact, domestic PX market price trend temporarily stable.

 

The price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose sharply this week. As of the 7th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $50.83/barrel. The price of Brent crude oil futures market rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $54.38/barrel. The oil price continued to rise, and WTI hit the highest point in nearly 11 months. The main reason is that the market is still concerned about Saudi Arabia’s commitment to reduce production and the tension between the United States and Iraq The strong stock market and other factors are favorable for oil prices. The rising trend of international crude oil prices is a good support for domestic petrochemical products. The price trend of domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

 

This week, the price trend of PTA Market in the lower reaches rose. By the end of the week, the negotiation of PTA Market in East China was around 3800-3900 yuan, and the recent PTA downstream orders were acceptable. PTA enterprises had good production enthusiasm, and there was no large-scale maintenance phenomenon. As of January 7, the starting load of domestic PTA production enterprises was 84%, which was at the normal level. At present, the periodic contradiction between supply and demand of PTA is not sharp, and crude oil still brings some support to the market. PTA price is expected to continue the strong oscillation situation, so the price trend of upstream PX is mainly stable.

 

In general, the demand of textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is relatively normal, the terminal demand is general, the upstream PX is mainly purchased on demand, and the price trend of PX market is mainly stable.

 

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that the recent trend of crude oil price remains at a high level, coupled with the rising trend of downstream PYA market price, the domestic PX market supply is normal, and it is expected that the PX market price will rise slightly next week.

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, on January 1, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 18766 yuan / ton. On December 31, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 21833 yuan / ton. The annual price increased by 4000 yuan / ton, or 22.66%.

 

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of silicone DMC from January to December in 2020, it can be seen that silicone DMC will go down in March, July and December in 2020. The biggest decline was in December, with an overall decline of 34.5%, and the biggest increase was in November, with an overall rise of 63.4%. The lowest price of the whole year was on April 21, the reference average price of silicone DMC was 14600 yuan / ton, and the highest price of the whole year was on December 1, the reference average price of silicone DMC was 33333 yuan / ton, the maximum amplitude of the whole year was 128.31%.

 

In the first half of 2020, the market performance of silicone DMC was flat, and the overall market fell

 

In the first half of 2020, the overall performance of China’s domestic silicone DMC market is flat. In January, the market trend of silicone DMC in China was stable. The factories were shut down one after another near the Spring Festival, and the early preparation was coming to an end. The market fluctuation was limited. The mainstream offer of silicone DMC market in January was around 18500-19000 yuan / ton.

 

In February, affected by public health incidents, the domestic logistics was not smooth, the overall recovery of silicone market was slow, most silicone DMC enterprises were closed, the operating rate was low, the downstream participation was not high, and the market atmosphere was weak. In February, the mainstream quotation of silicone DMC was about 19000 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was between 18500-19000 yuan / ton.

 

In March, the domestic silicone DMC market gradually recovered, and the factories began to work one after another. However, the downstream demand failed to follow up in time, and the export was also restricted. Therefore, the inventory of silicone DMC factories began to accumulate at the beginning of this month. Until the end of March, most factories reduced the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC. The market price of silicone DMC dropped sharply, and the average quotation of silicone DMC was 152 00 yuan / ton, a monthly decrease of 20%.

 

Silicone DMC market fell to the bottom in April, now the lowest price of the whole year

 

In April, the silicone market was still weak, the market demand was insufficient, and there was no obvious improvement in the market. The continuous low operation for many days made the manufacturers digest part of the inventory in the early stage. However, due to the terminal market demand still could not be fully released, and the downstream demand was cautious, the factory lowered the ex factory quotation of DMC again, and the silicone DMC dropped to the bottom. On April 22, the silicone DMC was ex factory The annual average price has dropped to 14600 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the DMC market rebounded at the end of the month, with an overall monthly increase of 0.88%, driven by the slight recovery of the downstream Silicone Market and the plan to stop production and limit production at the end of the month.

 

In April, the silicone market was still weak, the market demand was insufficient, and there was no obvious improvement in the market. The continuous low operation for many days made the manufacturers digest part of the inventory in the early stage. However, due to the terminal market demand still could not be fully released, and the downstream demand was cautious, the factory lowered the ex factory quotation of DMC again, and the silicone DMC dropped to the bottom. On April 22, the silicone DMC was ex factory The annual average price has dropped to 14600 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the DMC market rebounded at the end of the month, with an overall monthly increase of 0.88%, driven by the slight recovery of the downstream Silicone Market and the plan to stop production and limit production at the end of the month. In May, the stock up before the labor day in the lower reaches had ended, the market’s ability to receive new orders was weak, and the demand was half. The offer of silicone DMC factory was lowered by 500-1000 yuan / ton. On May 11, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC fell into a trough again, and the market mainstream quotation returned to 14400-15000 yuan / ton. As the price fell to a relatively low level and the lower reaches entered the market on bargain hunting, the market transaction atmosphere improved. The ex factory price of silicone DMC rose slightly, with an overall monthly increase of 1.3%.

 

In June, the domestic silicone market as a whole went well, up 12.88%

 

In June, China’s Silicone DMC market continued to have a good trend at the end of May. Most of the monomer factories had little inventory pressure on silicone DMC, and the quotation continued to be firm. With the mentality of buying up but not buying down in the downstream, the demand also improved, and the inventory available for factories continued to decrease. In addition, some factories shut down for maintenance and supported by various parties, the silicone DMC market continued to rise for three weeks. On June 19, the average market price rose to 17500 yuan / ton 。 In late June, the market quotation has been rising and falling, but it has little influence on the market as a whole. Most factories continue to have a strong trend.

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

As of June 30, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the ex factory prices of silicone DMC were 17533 yuan / ton. Compared with June 1, the average price increased by 2000 yuan / ton, or 12.88%. Compared with the prices of June 1 and June 1, the average price decreased by 1200 yuan / ton, or 6.57%.

 

Silicone DMC has a bright trend in the second half of the year and a rapid rise in November

 

In the second half of 2020, in July and August, the overall trend of the domestic silicone DMC market was relatively flat. In July, affected by the weakening downstream demand and slow factory delivery, most monomer enterprises made profits to ship. The silicone DMC market once went down sharply in the middle and late July, with a decrease of 500-1000 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, under the active control of the factory, the silicone DMC quotation slightly rebounded, At the end of August, DMC’s demand for organic silicon was stable, and DMC’s demand for raw materials was almost flat As of August 31, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 16866 yuan / ton. Compared with August 1, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 266 yuan / ton, up 1.61%.

 

Welcome Jinjiu silicone DMC to rise in an all-round way

 

In September, the domestic silicone DMC continued to rise, and the rise of raw material metal silicon gave strong support to silicone DMC. The market momentum was strong, the downstream demand was good, the attitude of the industry was positive, the mood of buying up but not buying down appeared, the amount of stock replenishment increased, the supply and demand of upstream and downstream were smooth, the market continued to push up, and the price gap between high and low continued to shrink According to the Italian news agency data monitoring, the factory price of silicone DMC is 17800 yuan / ton. Compared with September 1, the average price is increased by 1000 yuan / ton, or 5.53%.

 

Silicone DMC market broke through the sky in November

 

After the National Day in October, the market of organic silicon DMC rose steadily, the downstream demand was good, the trading atmosphere was active, the low-end offer of organic silicon DMC continued to decrease, and the price was close to the high-end concentration. The industry was full of confidence. According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 31, the average price of organic silicon DMC market exceeded 20400 yuan / ton, increased by 2600 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, or 1 4.61%。 In November, silicone DMC continued to open a wide range of channels to pull up. The inventory of the factory was low, and the sealing was common. The downstream demand was insufficient. The offer of silicone DMC factory rose sharply again. In the middle of the month, the market of silicone DMC had exceeded 26000 yuan / ton. As the end of the month, the silicone DMC factory continued to increase the ex factory quotation by a large margin. As of November 30, the mainstream offer of silicone DMC was 33000-34500 yuan / ton, with an average price reference of 33333 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month (November 1), the average price increased by 12933 yuan / ton, or 63.40%.

 

Demand calms down, silicone DMC market falls in December

 

In December, the trend of organosilicon DMC’s soaring was eased. The strong quotation for nearly two months made the downstream industry strongly resist high prices. The wait-and-see mood of the downstream industry increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm also declined. Therefore, on the 2nd of the first month, the leading manufacturers of Shandong organosilicon DMC took the lead in reducing the ex factory quotation of organosilicon DMC by 2000 yuan / ton. As of the 13th, the ex factory quotation of organosilicon DMC was for reference In the range of 32000-33000 yuan / ton. In the following week, some silicone factories lowered their DMC ex factory quotation twice, with a reduction range of 1000-5500 yuan / ton within one week. As of the 21st, the market mainstream quotation was around 28000-30000 yuan / ton. After the decline of silicone DMC, there was no large-scale replenishment in the lower reaches, and most of them were still waiting to fall. On the 25th, individual manufacturers of silicone DMC in Shandong sharply reduced the ex factory quotation of DMC to 22000 yuan / ton, down by 5000 yuan / ton. The rest of the factories also began to reduce the profit and shipment, and gradually reduced the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC. For a time, “the market dropped a lot”, and the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC was around 22000-23000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of December, the average price of silicone decreased by 218377 yuan / ton compared with the quoted price of DMC at the beginning of December.

 

Aftermarket analysis

 

With the decline of organosilicon DMC market at the end of 2020, the current market price has returned to a rational level. After new year’s day and approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream will start replenishment one after another. With the increase of demand, the downward space of factory offer is limited. Therefore, the organosilicon DMC Data Engineer of the business community believes that in the early 2021, the organosilicon DMC will continue to expand Most of the market will run smoothly, and prices may rise slightly due to rising demand.

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1、 Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price trend of cryolite market in December was stable, and the average market price at the end of the month was 5800 yuan / ton, down 2.79% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This month, the market of cryolite in Henan Province was weak and stable, the downstream demand was general, and the quotation of enterprises was stable. Most of the cryolite were sold by order, and the market transaction was fair. At present, the annual output of cryolite of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10000 tons, and the plant is running normally; the cryolite of Jiaozuo mingminli Industrial Co., Ltd. is currently in full load production, and the start-up is normal; the annual output of cryolite of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 30000 tons / year, and about 70% of the plant is now in operation. As of the 31st, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan is 5000-6200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation is 5500-6800 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is flexible, and the specific price is mainly based on negotiation.

 

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market price continued to rise. At the end of the month, the average domestic fluorite price was 2718.89 yuan / ton, up 3.91% in the month. The start-up of domestic fluorite plants has declined, the fluorite supply on the site is slightly tight, and the market price rises slightly. It is expected that the fluorite market will rise slightly in the future. In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, the social inventory continues to move down, the domestic demand is strong, the manufacturing industry is steadily rising, the downstream consumption is rising, the supply and demand factors support the strong upward of aluminum price, and it is expected that the market will fluctuate in the future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

At present, the cryolite market is in sufficient stock, the downstream demand generally has no obvious improvement, and the market transaction remains stable. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market will be stable temporarily.

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1、 Trend analysis

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

In 2020, the domestic nickel market will fall first and then rise. According to the data monitoring of business society, the nickel price will be 113733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2020, and will rise to 130700 yuan / ton at the end of 2020, with an increase of 14.92%. Looking at the trend of nickel in the whole year, the nickel price first fell to the lowest price of 92050 yuan / ton on April 2, and then rose to the highest price of 132750 yuan / ton on December 14, with an amplitude of 44.21%.

 

According to the comparison chart of nickel current period of business cooperatives, the trend of nickel current period in 2020 is basically the same, and the futures price is very close to the spot price. Near the end of the year, the spread expands and the main basis is positive, which is bad for buying hedging.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From January to early April, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, domestic production and resumption of work were slow, and enterprises almost stagnated. In particular, the demand of downstream civilian areas of terminals was obviously affected by the epidemic situation of coronavirus infection, including stainless steel products (construction, decoration, tableware, equipment), electroplating (cars and bathrooms), batteries (cars, 3C digital), which led to repeated nickel prices fall.

 

Nickel prices rose sharply (early April to December): at the beginning of April, with the resumption of production by domestic enterprises, nickel mines in the Philippines decreased, the decrease in supply was more clear than that in the earlier period, and the demand increased. Nickel prices began to rise slowly. Due to the epidemic situation, several major mining areas in the Philippines were closed down gradually, and the shipment ban was delayed from the initial April 18 to the end of April. Later, the blockade was extended to August 18 again. As China’s largest nickel exporter, the Philippines continued to rise due to the decline of nickel supply. In December, Indonesia’s ore price rose and the Philippines’ mine delivery dropped seasonally. In addition, the recent frequent support policies for new energy around the world, the market’s enthusiasm for nickel for new energy rose again, and the nickel price rose to the highest price of the whole year.

 

Import and export of nickel in 2010-2020

 

From 2010 to 2013, the net import of nickel increased year by year, and from 2013 to 2020, the net import of nickel decreased year by year. In November 2020, China imported 12873 tons of refined nickel (unwrought and rolled non alloy nickel and other unwrought and rolled non alloy nickel with total nickel and cobalt content ≥ 99.99% and cobalt content ≤ 0.005%), with a month on month growth of 53% and a year-on-year growth of 80.38%. Among them, the proportion of other unwrought alloy nickel was 91.25%, accounting for 11747 tons, an increase of 4095 tons compared with October; while the proportion of unwrought non alloy nickel with total nickel and cobalt content ≥ 99.99% and cobalt ≤ 0.005% was about 1126.9 tons, an increase of 365 tons compared with October. In 2020, the annual import volume of nickel is estimated to be 129700 tons, and the export volume is 19600 tons.

 

Global nickel and China’s nickel production in 2010-2020

 

Compared with 2018 and 2019, global nickel production in 2020 will decrease slightly, while China’s nickel production will increase slightly. From January to October 2020, the global output of refined nickel is 1.9586 million tons, and the demand is 1.8949 million tons. In November 2020, China’s Refined Nickel output was 13667 tons, with a month on month increase of 10.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%. From January to November 2020, China will produce 150500 tons of refined nickel, an increase of 2.9% year on year. The annual output is expected to reach 164000 tons, an increase of 1.2% year on year.

 

Apparent consumption of nickel in 2010-2020

 

The apparent consumption of nickel in China from January to October 2020 is 2368200 tons, which is lower than that in 2019.

 

Downstream consumption

 

The consumption of nickel mainly depends on stainless steel. 80% of nickel in China is used for forging stainless steel. In 2020, the consumption of primary nickel is expected to reach 1.4 million tons, an increase of 11.1% year on year. In the next few years, the growth rate of nickel driven by new energy is expected to be only 8%.

 

Trend of downstream stainless steel

 

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the price of stainless steel at the beginning of the year was 133663.67 yuan / ton, and it dropped slightly by 1.12% to 13216.67 yuan / ton at the end of the year. The lowest price of the year was 11491.67 yuan / ton on March 30, and the highest price was 13808.33 yuan / ton on September 7, with an amplitude of 20.15%. According to the price comparison chart of the business community, before October 15, the price trend of stainless steel and nickel was basically the same. After that, the price of nickel and stainless steel deviated. The main reason was that the Philippine mining area entered the rainy season in November, which intensified the tension of nickel supply. Combined with Indonesia’s export ban policy, the nickel raw material end was tight, and the nickel price soared sharply. However, due to the weak downstream demand and high inventory of stainless steel, it has not been pulled up for a long time.

 

The “head effect” of China’s new energy vehicle industry appears

 

Since last year, China’s new energy vehicle production and sales have declined due to the overall downturn of the automobile industry, the decline of subsidy policy, and the advance overdraft of shared travel and other operating vehicle markets, which has hindered the development of the industry. However, driven by a number of “leading enterprises”, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are back on the fast track. In September, the sales of new energy vehicles across the country increased by 67.7% year-on-year. Industry insiders said that the new energy vehicle industry is turning to a “self growth” stage driven by technology upgrading and industrial chain improvement.

 

To sum up, in 2020, nickel was first suppressed and then increased. In the first quarter, it fell to the lowest price due to the epidemic situation, and then rose sharply due to the supply shortage. According to statistics, the import and export volume, output and apparent consumption of nickel in 2020 have decreased to varying degrees, so the overall performance is not as good as that in 2019. Indonesia’s ore ban policy will not change in the short term, while the nickel mine in the Philippines is limited by the rainy season. Therefore, the supply of nickel mine is expected to be stretched before the second quarter, and the port inventory is also low. It is expected that the tense situation of nickel in 2021 will continue from the first quarter to the second quarter, but there are still a large number of new production capacity expected to be put into operation in the downstream stainless steel industry. The new energy vehicle market is expected to be better, and it will remain stable in 2021 However, the overall center of gravity may be higher than that in 2020, and the price range is 120000-150000 yuan / ton.

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1、 Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price trend of cryolite market was stable this week. The average price of Henan market at the weekend was 5800 yuan / ton, which was stable within the week, down 2.79% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price trend of domestic cryolite was stable this week. As of the 27th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Shandong was 5500-6800 yuan / ton, while that in Henan was 5000-6200 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. In terms of plant conditions of domestic enterprises, Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. has a capacity of 30000 tons / year, and about 70% of the plant has started operation. Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. has a normal load and starts operation. Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. has an annual capacity of 40000 tons of cryolite, and the plant is in normal operation. At present, the cryolite market is in sufficient stock, the downstream demand is general, and the enterprises are mostly single talking, and the transaction is fair.

 

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market has been running smoothly, the start-up of manufacturers’ equipment has declined, the supply of goods in the yard is tight, the demand in the downstream is insufficient, and the delivery of goods is general. In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, this week’s price trend showed a “V” type operation, with prices falling first and then rising, and the overall price fell by 1.33% within the week. At present, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to move down, the market demand is acceptable, and it is expected that the market will remain volatile in the later period.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

This week, the domestic cryolite manufacturers started work normally, the market supply was sufficient, the downstream electrolytic aluminum industry was insufficient to support the cryolite industry, the demand did not fluctuate significantly, the market transactions were general, the short-term cryolite market continued to run weakly and stably, and the specific attention was paid to the market demand.

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1、 Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic xylene market price showed a downward trend this week. Xylene price was 4060 yuan / ton on December 20, and 3954 yuan / ton on this Sunday (December 27), down 104 yuan / ton or 2.61% compared with last week.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

During the week, Sinopec’s xylene prices in East and central China were reduced by about 150 yuan / ton, while those in South and North China were reduced by 100 yuan / ton. Xylene inventory in East China ports this week was about 88700 tons, a month on month decrease of 18000 tons. During the week, crude oil fell due to bad news, which led to the weakness of xylene external market, while the domestic xylene market fell. Downstream PTA, PX, ox and other weak demand; this week’s gasoline price volatility, weak market atmosphere. Xylene holders are reluctant to sell at low prices and wait and see the price trend of crude oil and refined oil.

 

In terms of crude oil, a more infectious new crown mutant virus was found in the UK last weekend. Most cities in the UK implemented strict City closure measures. The market worried that the demand for crude oil would be frustrated again, and crude oil fell due to bad news. Friday is the Christmas holiday, crude oil information is not available. Compared with December 18, Brent fell $1.575/barrel, or 3.03%; WTI fell $1.01/barrel, or 2.05%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.52% and WTI decreased by 20.64%.

 

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week, and the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton, down 35.82% year on year. PX market based on demand procurement, price stability. As of December 24, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $601-591 / T FOB Korea and US $619-621 / T CFR China.

 

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China rose after falling this week. Compared with last week, the overall price of PTA fell by 25 yuan / ton, or 0.68%, down 25.87% year on year. PTA due to limited maintenance efforts, supply is high, as of December 24, PTA industry operating rate in the vicinity of 85%. In terms of inventory, the downstream polyester started, but it was difficult to further improve due to the “double 11″ and the basic end of Christmas orders, which led to a substantial accumulation of domestic PTA inventory again.

 

In the ox market, ox prices fell sharply this week. The price of ox in East China was 5000 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton or 9.09% from last week. The cost of o-benzene is weak, and the rising power is insufficient; the price of downstream phthalic anhydride plummeted in December, which is bad for o-benzene market, and the demand for o-benzene decreased, and the insufficient demand dragged down the price of o-benzene plummeting. In the future, the good news of o-benzene market weakened and the bad news increased.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Xylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil wells, weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress of new crown vaccine research and development, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

 

Friday is Christmas, crude oil market demand is expected to decline, coupled with uncertainty in the crude oil market, toluene is expected to be weak next Tuesday. The downstream demand is weak, xylene price has great resistance to break through upward, and focus on the trend of gasoline price.

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1、 Nitric acid market price trend chart

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

Nitric acid price curve

 

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the average price of nitric acid in domestic areas was 2066 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 2050 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 0.81%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Anhui Jinhe quoted 2000 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 2030 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last week; Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical quoted 1950 yuan / ton; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 19 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid The price of dilute nitric acid is 810 yuan / ton, and that of concentrated nitric acid is the same as last week. Nitric acid market is slowing down, and some areas are adjusting down.

 

According to the monitoring of business society, the average price of upstream liquid ammonia at the beginning of this week was 3233 yuan / ton, and that at the end of this week was 3290 yuan / ton, up 1.75%; the average price of downstream aniline was temporarily stable this week, with an average price of 7733 yuan / ton; the average price of downstream TDI was temporarily stable this week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Upstream liquid ammonia support, business community nitric acid analysts expect, nitric acid price decline space is limited.

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Price trend

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic caprolactam market will fall sharply in 2020, and it will return to the price level at the beginning of the year, and the overall performance will be weak. As of December 22, the average offer price of caprolactam sample enterprises was 11300 yuan / ton, only 3.04% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the year. This year, almost all industries have been impacted to varying degrees, such as global health events, anti globalization trade war, and the game between crude oil producing areas, etc., which may be unbearable in 2020, but is there any imbalance in caprolactam industry itself. Business agency analysts take you back to the domestic caprolactam market this year.

 

Cause analysis

 

In the beginning of 2020, the situation in the Middle East will become tense, crude oil will rise, pure benzene market will rise, and cyclohexanone cost pressure will increase. Caprolactam slightly increased depending on raw material price support and logistics resistance. With the influence of social public events, all the good and bad suddenly stopped. Crude oil fell sharply, and the demand for pure benzene was very limited. At the same time, the transportation restriction is more serious, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is not active, just like the manager has a long holiday, and the market is stagnant. Caprolactam went down all the way for the rest of the first quarter. On April 7, it dropped from the annual low of 7833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 28.57% compared with the beginning of the year.

 

The turning point appeared in mid April, and a number of economic stimulus strategies were promulgated at home and abroad. Due to the change of crude oil and raw material pure benzene price, caprolactam price began to stop falling and rise. In addition, the recovery growth and ultra-low rebound brought about by the resumption of production and work, the downstream purchase of pure benzene was active, and the price of pure benzene recovered nearly 30% in the short term, and some areas of Shandong even had tight supply. At the same time, the downstream polyamide polymerization plant resumed production, and the situation of caprolactam supply shortage even lasted until May. Cost side and demand side jointly push up caprolactam spot, but there is a certain contradiction between supply and demand of PA6 callback range is very limited, the support for caprolactam is hard to say stable. Domestic pure benzene price was also higher than the import price, stagflation domestic spot.

 

The domestic market demand for caprolactam is not warm for a long time, and the spot price can only passively follow the ups and downs of upstream. To the third quarter, raw material prices continued to fall in early July, caprolactam cost support weakened, followed by the upstream. Then the pressure of pure benzene delivery was released rapidly, and the price rose sharply. The consumption of caprolactam was weak and the follow-up was lagging behind. The rally came late in August and September. And September is the traditional peak season of downstream PA6, and the industry is looking forward to the positive market brought by large demand. However, PA6′s response to “Jinjiu” was cold, and the consumption of PA6 dropped.

 

In September, the peak season of PA6 downstream of caprolactam was not prosperous, and some enterprises resumed production, resulting in a standstill of pure benzene. Among them, the transaction of PA6 high-speed spinning chips is particularly slow, and the downstream factories are generally hoarding goods in conventional spinning, which is detrimental to the spot price of caprolactam. Fortunately, the “silver 10″ recovered some gains, but this time the market is not so direct. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of PA6 was strong after the October Festival, and the downstream staple fiber and wrapping yarn enterprises were more active in resuming work after the festival, but the demand for replenishment failed to maintain, and the conventional spinning chips were weak at the end of October. The main advantage of caprolactam rise in the fourth quarter is the maintenance and load reduction operation of many enterprises. Orchid science and technology innovation, Zhejiang Juhua and Shandong Haili concentrated parking and maintenance, aggravating the supply shortage pattern. On site supply decreased, inventory position decreased, Sinopec high-end caprolactam increased to increase market confidence. By the end of the year, some enterprises resumed work, but the operating rate was still not high, and the pattern of tight supply remained unchanged. Caprolactam continues to be supported by the supply side. Large domestic caprolactam factories generally increase the ex factory price, and the market demand atmosphere remains firm.

 

Year end overview

 

Business agency analysts believe: caprolactam market in 2020 will be depressed first and then rise, and the price center of gravity will be recovered. At the end of the year, both supply and Inventory were low, and the downstream load level was high. At present, the atmosphere of caprolactam is acceptable. It is expected that the market will maintain a positive operation in the short term. But overall, the demand is not strong, almost throughout the year, analysts worry that the temporary supply side will not boost prices for a long time. The health of caprolactam industry is inseparable from the coordinated development of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.

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According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price index of domestic rare earth market has declined, the price of praseodymium and neodymium in China has continued to decline, the price of terbium series market has remained at a high level, and the domestic rare earth market price has dropped slightly. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on December 18 was 412 points, which was the same as yesterday, which was 58.80% lower than the highest point of 1000 points (December 06, 2011) On September 13, 2015, the lowest point 271 was up 52.03%. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the domestic rare earth prices continued to fall this week, and the recent rare earth market changes frequently, and the market prices have been falling. In terms of products:

 

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of PR Nd oxide, PR nd alloy, Nd 2O 3 and Nd metal decreased slightly. As of December 18, the price of PR Nd oxide in domestic rare earth was 399500 yuan / T, with a decline of 0.75% this week; the price of PR nd alloy was 502500 yuan / T, with a decrease of 0.99% this week; the price of neodymium oxide was 492500 yuan / T, which fell this week The price of neodymium was 592500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.84%; the price of praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal also declined to varying degrees, and the market price of light rare earth continued to decline slightly in recent years.

 

In recent years, domestic sales of new energy vehicles are normal, and wind power, electronic products and other terminal industries are developing rapidly. With the slowing down of the epidemic situation, downstream manufacturers’ capacity utilization rate is normal, and the demand for NdFeB is mainly on demand. However, the demand for NdFeB is still high. However, some time ago, merchants have been active in purchasing, and their stocks are high. Recently, the market price of light rare earth is gradually falling. Recently, the demand and stock up situation of permanent magnet manufacturers has come to an end, and overseas demand is relatively normal. With the official entry into force of the export control law of the people’s Republic of China on December 1, the market expects that China’s rare earth export will be further reduced, and the global rare earth supply may further shrink. At that time, the supply of rare earth will be more tense, but the domestic demand for rare earth is general, and the price of rare earth market will rise and fall 。 Recently, the domestic heavy rare earth market terbium series price maintains the high level, but the direct market price trend this week is temporarily stable.

 

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of domestic direct line is temporarily stable. As of the 18th day, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1930000 yuan / ton, which was flat this week; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.92 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium was 2.425 million yuan / ton, but the domestic price of terbium series continued to rise, with 6.8 million yuan / ton of terbium oxide, 8.65 million yuan / ton of terbium oxide, and the price of terbium series rose to 10 A new high in the year. In the near future, the domestic supply and demand of rare earths are expected to be greatly affected by the tight domestic supply and demand of rare earth, and the domestic demand for rare earth is expected to be greatly affected by the tightening of rare earth supply and demand in China Market supply tension, supply and demand imbalance, terbium series market prices remain high.

 

Under the new situation, the strategic value of rare earth is expected to continue to increase. The United States, Japan and Europe and the United States have made corresponding plans to include rare earth in the national strategic resource reserve plan. The advantages of rare earth strategic resources are prominent. China is a large rare earth reserve country, and its rare earth reserves account for 37% of the world. At the same time, China is also a major rare earth export country. The state has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry, and the rare earth industry is moving towards high quality Development and favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry, and the price of domestic rare earth market has declined.

 

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earths has not changed much, and the domestic supply of rare earths is still tense. Downstream businesses have stopped purchasing, and the rare earth market prices have dropped slightly. Business analysts expect that the rare earth market prices will remain mainly volatile in the future.

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