Zinc price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring shows: since October 16, the price of zinc has risen, and the zinc market has recovered. As of October 28, the average price of zinc was 20163.33 yuan / ton, up 3.12% compared with 19553.33 yuan / ton on October 16 at the beginning of the month.

Fed’s measures to extend quantitative easing

On October 9, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the Fed would expand quantitative easing if the economic recovery slowed. In addition to Evans, a number of Federal Reserve officials have recently supported the expansion of QE, calling for more fiscal policy. Quantitative easing policy is good for macro-economy, boosting the future economic expectation, and the future zinc market is expected to recover.

EU may increase its easing policy

As the epidemic returns, many institutions expect the European Central Bank to maintain stability this week, but in view of the deteriorating economic outlook of the euro area, Lagarde will release the signal of the December meeting to increase QE. The early fermentation of the loose expectation of the Bank of Europe puts pressure on the euro, and the euro may fall sharply. Loose monetary policy, stimulate economic recovery, good for zinc market.

Analysis, review and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, said: the United States and the European Union have successively issued stimulus policy signals to stimulate the market to recover, which is good for the zinc market. However, in the past few weeks, the epidemic situation in the European Union and other places has intensified, leading to new local blockade restrictions, and the possibility of the economy facing pressure again is rising. The macro-economic environment is not ideal, the growth of zinc market in the future is under great pressure, and the rising power of zinc market in the future is expected to be limited. On the whole, the positive signals of macro policies continue to stimulate the recovery of zinc market, but the global economic environment is not good, the effect of policy stimulus is still to be determined, and the zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

The market of propylene oxide fell on October 27. As of October 27, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 18066.67 yuan / ton, down 1.81% compared with the previous trading day, and 1.63% lower than that of September 27. The start-up of Po manufacturers in Northeast China led to a short-term increase in Po supply and a strong sense of risk aversion and wait-and-see mood in the downstream. Manufacturers offered profits to ship goods, and the focus of market negotiation was lower. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 17600-17800 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, on October 26, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. According to the price chart of the business agency, since October 1, the price of propylene has remained stable on the whole, with some enterprises’ prices rising and falling slightly this week. On Friday, only a few enterprises’ prices fell slightly. Most enterprises continued to hold steady, but fell about 200 yuan / ton from 17 to 19, a small range from 20 to 23, and an obvious downward trend appeared again at the weekend (October 24 and 25), and 200 yuan / ton on the 26th At present, the market turnover is between 7075 and 7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7100 yuan / ton. Now the pressure of shipment is increasing.

As of October 26, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was around 11266.67 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 167 yuan / ton or 1.46% compared with that on October 19 (average price was 11433.33 yuan). The downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, showed that as of October 26, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11266.67 yuan / ton, which was 1.46% lower than that on October 19 (average price was 11433.33 yuan) As of October 27, the average ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol was 9366.67 yuan / ton, which was 2.18% higher than the price at the beginning of the month. For the downstream soft foam polyether, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong was lowered on October 26, the price of raw material propylene oxide fell, the cost support was weakened, the mentality of downstream enterprises to avoid risks was waiting to fall, the factory shipment was under pressure, and the offer was lower.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene oxide analysts of the business agency believe that the recent rise and fall of dual raw materials, abundant on-site cargo volume, and strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be dominated by weak consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance for the specific trend.

International crude oil declined slightly due to the impact of demand, but the main refineries such as Sinopec increased the ex factory price of asphalt, which led to the rise of mainstream asphalt price in some areas. In addition, the weather is suitable for road construction in recent years, and the domestic asphalt market demand is supported, and the domestic asphalt price rises slightly. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price was reported at 2330 yuan / ton on October 23, 2.76% higher than that at the beginning of the week.

As of October 16, Cushing’s crude oil inventory increased by 975000 barrels in the week; the implementation rate of OPEC member states’ production reduction in September was as high as 102%, but the oil market was dragged down by the second epidemic in Europe, and crude oil demand continued to decline; the international crude oil price fell this week, WTI crude oil price fell by 3.09%, Brent crude oil price fell by 2.00%.

Sinopec and other major refineries raised the ex factory price of asphalt, which led to the rise of mainstream asphalt prices in some areas. Moreover, the asphalt market demand is stable in recent years, and the weather in most areas of China is sunny, which is suitable for project construction. In Northeast China, the demand for road construction and asphalt rigidity may gradually decline; in North China, Shandong and East China, the weather and temperature are suitable, and the road construction projects enter the rush period, and the demand is supported; in southwest and South China, the rainfall is reduced, and the project construction increases, which leads to the steady increase of demand. On the whole, domestic demand is supported, and large factories push up the ex factory price of asphalt, which drives up the domestic asphalt price.

Business agency analysts believe that in the short term, international crude oil prices will continue to be under pressure; however, road construction has entered the rush period, and the asphalt market demand is supported, and it is expected that domestic asphalt prices will have a small upward trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on October 19 was 560 yuan / ton, and that on October 23 was 560 yuan / ton. The price market was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic market of coking grade ammonium sulfate is stable. Ammonium sulfate in hexane is mainly ordered in the early stage. The main factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Henan Province is 520-580 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Province is 480-540 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Province is 540-580 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Province is 420-490 yuan, and that of Northeast China is 520-630 yuan / ton.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer prices slightly adjusted, the operating rate decreased compared with last week, and the field held a wait-and-see attitude. This week, the compound fertilizer enterprise shipment is fair, the demand for ammonium sulfate is general.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate goods are OK, the market trend is stable to explore the rise. The export of domestic ammonium sulfate is good, and the price fluctuates slightly. It is expected that the trend of coking grade ammonium sulfate will be stable in the short term, and the range adjustment of internal grade ammonium sulfate will be given priority to.

Price trend of 441 silicon

On October 21, the price of silicon metal (441) rose slightly. According to the data of business agency, on October 21, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 11908.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.22% compared with the average market price of 11650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (10.1); compared with the average market price of (7.1) in the year, the average price was 10491.67 yuan / ton, up 13.50%; compared with the average market price of (1.1) at the beginning of the year, the average price was 11833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.63%.

On the 21st, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 11400-11500 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 12500-12700 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 12000-12100 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu port is 11900-12100 yuan / ton 。

In October, export orders picked up, foreign investors had a strong demand for standby stocks, and the export situation improved slightly. At present, some silicon manufacturers are optimistic about the price of silicon factories after inquiry.

The price of silicon moved up slightly, the market was expected to be better, and the reluctance to sell was aggravated. Some traders were cautious in preparing their stocks. At present, the low-grade silicon market is in short supply and the spot is tight. It is expected that the silicon price will be strong and stable in the near future.

October 19, the beginning of the week, the domestic adipic acid market stable operation, part of the distributor quotation slightly up and down. The quotation of domestic manufacturers is mainly stable, the normal operating rate of the device is about 80%, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is maintained at a high level. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the downstream demand is relatively weak. At present, adipic acid is still at the off-season level. At the cost end: since October, pure benzene has continued to adjust and rebounded after falling, but on the whole, it has still fallen by 0.59% so far. The upstream cost is negative, and the support for the downstream adipic acid is insufficient. In addition, the rigid demand of terminal is stable, and the demand growth is not as expected.

In terms of local markets:

At the beginning of the week, the market of adipic acid in East China continued to be stable, and the dealer’s quotation was mainly adjusted slightly, with the overall range within 100 yuan, and the market inquiry was general. The downstream demand is low. Most dealers follow the market and make profits to ship goods. The manufacturers’ inventory pressure is general and the transaction is cold. The mainstream prices in today’s market are: Shandong source 6400-6600 yuan / T acceptance price, Jiangsu source acceptance price is 6500-6800 yuan / T, and the downstream is mainly rigid demand procurement.

At the beginning of the week, the market situation of adipic acid in South China continued to be stable, with little change in the quotation compared with the previous weekend. The dealers gave priority to the shipment, and the manufacturer’s inventory pressure was general, and the transaction was fair. The mainstream market prices today are: 6500-6800 yuan / T acceptance price of Shandong source, 6600-6900 yuan / T of Jiangsu source, and rigid demand procurement is the main downstream.

From the perspective of adipic acid fundamentals this week, the contradiction between supply and demand is still troubling the whole industry. At present, the price rise and fall are mostly affected by local supply. Overall, the market is still weak and stable, trapped by supply pressure and weak demand, which may still maintain a weak situation. Price rise and fall powerless, do not rule out the possibility that prices continue to fall.

Trade name: octanol

Latest price (October 19): 7533.33 yuan / ton

On October 19, the factory quotation of octanol in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on October 16. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, which gave octanol certain support. The downstream DOP market was high consolidation, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was rising. The octanol supply was normal.

Recently, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province has fluctuated slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 7600 yuan / ton.

Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the market performance of o-benzene was strong in October, and the price of o-benzene contract was stable. As of October 16, Sinopec has offered 4400.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene in East China and 4400 yuan / ton in North China, which is stable compared with the beginning of the month, and the market of o-xylene is strong and temporarily stable.

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart that the mixed xylene price of o-xylene raw material recovered and rose in October, the mixed xylene price rose by 0.84% in October, the cost of o-xylene rose slightly, the price of mixed xylene rose in shock, the pressure on the cost of o-xylene increased, and the driving force for the rise of o-xylene increased.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the phthalic anhydride market stopped falling and recovered in October, and the phthalic anhydride price rose by 2.94%. The phthalic anhydride market rose, which was good for the o-benzene market, and the downstream demand for o-phthalic anhydride rose, and the driving force for the price rise of o-phthalic anhydride increased.

Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst from business agency, in October, the prices of raw materials for o-benzene rose slightly, while the prices of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer in the downstream sector rose, and the market of downstream industrial chain of o-benzene increased, and the momentum of o-benzene’s rise was sufficient, which was beneficial to the market of o-benzene. Generally speaking, the market of o-benzene has sufficient momentum to rise, the market of o-benzene is strong, and the price is strong and stable temporarily.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, before the National Day holiday at the end of September, Xinjiang Meike and Lanshan Tunhe announced the settlement price in September and the listing price in October. On October 9 after the festival, the latest domestic BDO market price was 8800 yuan / ton, up 2.33% month on month and 7.56% lower than the same period last year. Part of the implementation of the monthly listing settlement price enterprises have not released the latest quotation. As of today (10.12), the spot bulk water negotiation in East China is 8800-9000 yuan / ton, the barreled bulk water negotiation is 9000-9800 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery), the bulk water negotiation in South China is 8800-9100 yuan / ton, and the barreled water negotiation is 9000-9800 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery).

Some enterprises announced the settlement price in September and the listing price in October:

Settlement in September (bulk water delivery) listing in October (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 8350 yuan / ton, South China 8500 yuan / ton, East China 9200 yuan / ton, South China 9400 yuan / ton

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 8350 yuan / ton, South China 8500 yuan / ton, East China 9100-9400 yuan / ton, South China 8200-9500 yuan / ton

At present, the situation of Dongyuan restart is not as expected, and the main supply of goods is North China; Tianye, Xinye and heimao are still in parking, and the restart time is uncertain; in the recent commissioning of Yanchang oil, it is expected to produce products at the end of October and early November; the operation of other devices is relatively stable.

At present, the spot supply is still tight, supporting manufacturers’ high offer to support the market. Downstream contract procurement is the main part, and other downstream inventory and spot replenishment demand are pushed up by manufacturers, and the focus continues to rise. Business agency BDO analysts expect that this week the domestic BDO market high finishing.

In September 2020, the domestic 1 ᦇ tin ingot Market fluctuated and fell, with the average price of domestic market at 144887.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 143250 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 1.13%.

On September 29, the tin commodity index was 72.97, up 0.98 points compared with yesterday, 27.21% lower than 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and 70.25% higher than the lowest 42.86 points on December 09, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In September, Lunxi, Xihu, Wuxi, Wuxi and Wuxi futures market mainly fluctuated downward, closing at 145800 yuan / ton on the first day and 141720 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with the highest value of 148690 yuan / ton and the lowest of 138180 yuan / ton, falling by 4080 yuan / ton or 2.8%. It was mainly affected by the sharp fall of US stocks, the rebound of the US dollar index and the decline of the nonferrous metal market. In the middle of the month, the US dollar index went down, but then continued to rebound. In the near end of the month, the US dollar continued to fluctuate under the influence of foreign public events. The trend of metal market is fluctuating this month.

The spot market followed the trend of Shanghai and Wuxi this month, and the overall trend was mainly volatile. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of domestic spot market was 144000-146000 yuan / ton. Myanmar’s export ban was extended to the end of October. Affected by local public health, the export of the mine was blocked. According to the latest statistics, the domestic tin ore import in August decreased by 37% year-on-year, with an import of 8077 tons. In terms of refined tin, the import volume in August was 348 tons, down 87.5% month on month. Although the production of yinman has been resumed in China, it can only partially improve the domestic supply situation. During the long holiday, there will be more uncertainties in the international fundamentals, and there will be some pressure on the market after the holiday.

As for the future market, the business community believes that it is necessary to focus on fundamental factors such as the US dollar index, the progress of public health events in Europe, and LME inventory situation, while the domestic focus on the inventory situation.

Relevant data:

Us tin imports increased month on month in July, while exports declined: Washington reported on September 4, according to the data released by the US Department of Commerce, US tin imports in July were 2147053kg, higher than 1340193kg in June, and the total imports in the first seven months of this year were 20589033kg. U.S. tin exports in July were 129475kg, lower than 169541kg in June. In the first seven months of this year, US exports totaled 1077194kg.

Indonesia’s refined tin export in August increased by 11.6% year-on-year: according to the data released by Indonesia’s Ministry of trade on September 8, Indonesia’s refined tin export volume in August was 6158.67 tons, up 11.6% over the same period of last year and 27.1% higher than that of the previous month.