1、 Price trend

This month, EO price adjustment is frequent. For example, in the mainstream East China region, the price has been increased three times, from 6300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 11%.

2、 Industrial chain:

Thanks to the continuous increase of crude oil price, the market went up. On January 1, the price of ethylene in the CFR Northeast Asia market was $375.00/t, and on September 29, it was $720 / T. although the increase slowed down, the trend was still strong. In addition, the supply of ethylene in Northeast Asia was tight, which led the downstream industry to recover. The consolidation after the rise of ethylene glycol has brought certain support to the market of ethylene oxide on the basic level. However, due to the maintenance of some ethylene oxide units, the supply side is tight and the price is rising, which plays a driving role in the downstream market. The downstream monomer market is stable after the price rise, and the follow-up situation is still based on rigid demand, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is reported that the overhaul device in North China is planned to be restarted in early July, and that in East China is planned to be overhauled from July to August.

3、 Forecast:

We need to pay attention to the change of raw material price and factory news in a timely manner.

On May 27, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell sharply, and the settlement price of major contracts was 32.81 yuan / barrel, down $1.54 or 4.5%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of major contracts was $35.45/barrel, down $1.29 or 3.5%, mainly due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and tension between China and the US.

The weekly crude oil inventory reports of the American Petroleum Association (API) and the American Energy Information Agency (EIA) were delayed one day due to the impact of Monday’s memorial day of the United States. Coincidentally, an in-depth survey released by the market on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventory may decline for the third consecutive week last week, and analysts surveyed expect that U.S. crude oil inventory may decrease by about 1.9 million barrels as of the week of May 22. However, the data released by API on Thursday Beijing time showed a significant increase in inventory, breaking the previous optimistic expectations of the market. Market confidence was once frustrated, and oil prices fell sharply. The data released by API showed that the inventory of crude oil, gasoline and distillate oil in the United States increased by 8.7 million barrels in the week ending may 22, while analysts predicted that the inventory of crude oil in the United States would decrease by 1.9 million barrels The oil storage is more than 10 million barrels higher than the previous market expectation.

At the same time, tensions between the United States and China continue to heat up, which also casts a shadow on the market. U.S. President trump said he would soon announce the U.S. response to China’s national security laws in Hong Kong and Macao. In addition, China also said it would take corresponding countermeasures against us actions, which may include sanctions. As the world’s two largest economies, the rising trade friction is likely to further hit the demand for crude oil.

At present, OPEC + production reduction is still the focus of market attention. On May 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Salman made a call to reach an agreement on further “close coordination” to limit oil production. It includes a statement: “the two sides agree to further close cooperation on this issue through the energy ministries of the two countries.” But that didn’t seem to give the market much boost, although OPEC agreed to cut its combined oil production by nearly 10 million barrels per day in May and June to deal with the oversupply of crude oil hit by the epidemic. However, from the content of the previous agreement, the restrictions on crude oil output may be relaxed in July, and the share of production reduction may be further reduced. Moreover, this is likely to become a contradiction between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Saudi Arabia’s intention may be to maintain the current level of production reduction, but Russia’s attitude is relatively ambiguous, which also has a certain negative effect on oil prices.

In the view of business cooperatives, the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil is still prominent, and the problem of excess supply is still the primary problem that plagues the oil market. However, with the reduction of production in oil producing countries and the restart of economy in more countries, the supply and demand of crude oil will tend to a new balance. During this period, oil prices will be accompanied by wide swings. At present, on the one hand, the risk factors of the market are Sino US relations, and more importantly, the resumption of the economy may lead to the recurrence of the epidemic. On the premise that the supply problem has not been completely solved, the market should be careful to prevent the secondary damage of repeated epidemic situation to the oil price.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the caustic soda price continues to be in a weak consolidation operation this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 487.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 482.5 yuan / ton, with the price down 1.03. On May 24, the caustic soda commodity index was 69.42, the same as yesterday, 66.44% lower than 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 2.65% higher than 67.63, the lowest point on May 10, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the price of caustic soda is weak this week. At present, 32% ionic membrane alkali: about 420-500 yuan / ton in Shandong market, about 1400-1450 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, and about 550-650 yuan / ton in Jiangsu market. In terms of liquid caustic soda, the price of caustic soda in Shandong has returned to stability, the price performance of some markets in the south is stable, and some shipments are weak. At present, the overall price of domestic market is relatively low. Quotation of flake alkali: about 1780-1800 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, 2050-2100 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 2120-2150 yuan / ton in East China market and 1550-1600 yuan / ton in Xinjiang market. In terms of flake alkali, the manufacturer’s quotation continues to be firm, and some enterprises are still in maintenance state. However, due to the lack of downstream procurement, some traders gave up their profits in a narrow range.

Industry chain: from the perspective of downstream market, the starting load of downstream alumina and viscose industries is not high, among which, the starting load of viscose fiber industry has a downward trend, while other industries have a flat performance. On the whole, the market relies on the maintenance of enterprises for good support, but the terminal demand support strength is relatively weak, and the good support is insufficient.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, 2 kinds of commodities falling and 1 kind of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were PVC (3.34%), calcium carbide (0.68%); the main commodities falling were light soda ash (- 3.75%), caustic soda (- 1.03%). This week’s average was – 0.15%.

Macro: in April 2020, the BCI of the business community was -0.02, with an average increase of 0.38%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy compared with the previous month and the stable operation of the economy.

According to the analysts of the business association, the overall demand of domestic caustic soda market is general, the starting load of alumina is low, the price performance of some markets in the south is relatively strong, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. Because the price of liquid caustic soda is stagnant in the cost line, it is expected that the domestic caustic soda market will still operate stably as a whole, or there will be minor adjustment and operation in some parts.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, this week (5.18-22), the domestic adipic acid market changed little compared with last week. This week did not continue the rebound trend of last week, and the price returned to stability. The data monitored by the business club showed that the rise and fall of adipic acid in East China was 0, the market demand was still weak, and the supply was relatively abundant. The quotations of some dealers kept within 100 yuan. Most manufacturers It is still bearish and light inventory operation is the main thing. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the quotation range of adipic acid market is generally 6600-6800 yuan / ton at present.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of market supply, this week’s operating rate of enterprises is relatively high. At present, more than 80% of them are in sufficient supply. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is still high, and the delivery strength is insufficient. At present, although most dealers have returned to normal delivery, the downstream demand has not yet reached the pre epidemic level. Dealers are cautious in taking delivery. Some dealers purchase according to orders and operate in light of inventory. On the whole, the current market has shown a trend of both high enterprise inventory and market inventory. In terms of cost, from the beginning of May to now, pure benzene has rebounded sharply, boosted by peripheral cost factors such as crude oil recovery, and the monitoring of the business community shows that the increase of pure benzene is nearly 15%, but it has not brought fundamental benefits to adipic acid. On the one hand, the delay of cost transmission, on the other hand, the sharp decline of pure benzene in the early stage, and the decline of adipic acid has not fully kept up with the decline of pure benzene At present, adipic acid still has some profit space without rebound, so adipic acid is also more resistant to falling than the upstream pure benzene. The price of adipic acid is mainly affected by the low demand at present.

From the perspective of terminal demand, downstream demand is relatively weak, and it is still in the off-season level. The operating rate of downstream factories has not been significantly improved, and the overall consumption level of plastic products has not been significantly improved, which is difficult to boost the upstream raw material market. In particular, the operating rate of downstream real estate is generally lower than the same period last year, and the sales volume of polyurethane and other insulation materials is also lower than the same period last year. In addition, downstream products such as PA66 have not come out of the dilemma, and the price is still at a low level. As a result, the demand for adipic acid is difficult to fundamentally improve, the inventory is difficult to digest, the manufacturers press more inventory, and dealers generally follow the market and purchase on demand. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, the external demand has also worsened, especially affected by the overseas epidemic, the external demand has decreased, and the pressure on adipic acid export has continued to increase, which does not rule out the possibility that the inventory will continue to rise in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

In the later stage, the business association predicted that the upstream chemical products have recovered due to the impact of crude oil rebound, but the intermediate products such as adipic acid did not enjoy the dividend at the cost end, but increased the burden of enterprises due to the increase of upstream cost. This further reflects the dilemma of current demand, especially the fact that the overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled, foreign orders have declined sharply, and adipic acid exports have been hit. At present, adipic acid is in a dilemma both at home and abroad. In a comprehensive consideration, adipic acid will still shake and adjust at the bottom in the near future.

According to the data of business agency: on May 18, the weekly average price of domestic industrial grade formic acid was 2066.67 yuan / ton. As of May 22, the weekly average price of domestic industrial grade formic acid was 2016.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.47%. This week, the formic acid market was mainly weak and stable.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole showed a weak trend of maintaining stability, with restrictions on foreign trade and import, and prices of some manufacturers slightly reduced. At present, the market has sufficient supply of goods, and the devices are shipped normally. Price: this week, the price of industrial barreled water is generally around 2040 yuan / ton, and the factory price of main industrial purified water of formic acid is about 1775 yuan / ton. As of Friday (May 22), Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 2000 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. 1750 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou Sanan Chemical Co., Ltd. 1600 yuan / ton; Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. 1750 yuan / ton; Hangzhou Fengchang Trade Co., Ltd. 85% formic acid industrial barrel price 2300 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the mainstream of liquid ammonia Market of formic acid upstream products is stable, moderate and narrow adjustment, local prices are up and down, and the market demand of liquid ammonia market is acceptable. The domestic caustic soda market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream is mostly purchased on demand. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the later period. The upstream products generally support the formic acid market, while the demand for leather and pesticide industry of the downstream products does not increase significantly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data division of business association, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole shows a weak trend of maintaining stability. At present, the market supply is fair, the downstream demand does not increase significantly, and the formic acid market is not good enough. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable and decline in the short term.

On May 19, the average price of formic acid samples was 2016.67 yuan / ton, down 5.47% from yesterday. The price is at a historical low. At present, the formic acid market is weak and stable, and some manufacturers adjust. Jinzhou jinhongda offers 2000 yuan / ton, Zibo Pulis 1750 yuan / ton, Hangzhou Fengchang Trade Co., Ltd. 2300 yuan / ton.

The main manufacturers of formic acid in China have normal operation and sufficient supply in the market, but the price of formic acid is low due to the recent restrictions on the export of goods. The downstream pesticide, leather and other industries are affected by environmental protection and other factors, the unit operation rate is not high, the enthusiasm of receiving goods is general, the pharmaceutical industry purchases on demand, and the upstream cost can still be supported. At present, formic acid is in a market situation where the supply exceeds the demand. Influenced by the market supply-demand relationship, it is estimated that the short-term formic acid price is still weak. (Note: the above prices are for reference only. For details, please contact the merchants for consultation; and the above prices refer to 85% formic acid and the net water price including tax from the warehouse).

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, today’s comprehensive price in the domestic PC market is 13300.00 yuan / ton, With the introduction of the “one helmet one belt” policy, the PC market has recently seen an increase of 200-600 yuan / ton, 3.1% higher than that of the same period last week, 9.92% higher than that of the beginning of May, and 29.38% lower than that of the same period last year. At present, the supply of PC spot market is sufficient, and the proportion of PC in helmets is very limited, accounting for about 2% of the annual output.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: according to the Ministry of public security, since June 1, 2020, the “one helmet area” security guard operation will be carried out nationwide. The public security traffic control department will strengthen law enforcement management, check and correct according to law. Motorcycle electric bicycle riders do not wear safety helmets and car drivers do not use safety belts, The market of riding safety helmets will see growth. As the raw material of helmet front baffle, the price of PC will rise by 200-600 yuan / ton. Some traders are reluctant to sell. The PC market will undoubtedly usher in a wave of development peak. In a 500g helmet, the consumption of PC is between 100-150g. According to the demand of 100 million helmets, the total consumption of PC will reach 15000 In 2020, the domestic PC output is expected to exceed 1.5 million tons, far exceeding the demand driven by the helmet baffle. In the near future, the supply of domestic PC market is sufficient, while the downstream demand is general, so this action is difficult to reverse the overall situation of the domestic PC industry in the future. At present, the PC price in East China is increasing by 200-300 yuan / ton, and the PC price in South China is increasing by 200-600 yuan / ton 。 The latest price of keschuang PC is 14600 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton; the price of Luxi Chemical PC is 12500 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton; the listing price of lihuayi PC is 12800 yuan / ton, an increase of 600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the upstream BPA and BPA markets are generally traded. At present, they are not active in purchasing. The downstream factories have little initiative. The traders are able to deliver goods stably. The range reference is around 9650-9700 yuan / ton. The overall wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

Industry: on May 18, the rubber and plastic index was 570, up 4 points from yesterday, down 46.23% from 1060 (2012-03-14), and up 7.95% from 528, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

PC analysts of business club believe that: in the short term, the price of PC as the raw material for helmet production is expected to keep rising in the near future. Compared with the mask industry, the technical content of helmet is low, the service life is long, and the market is coming and going fast. In the long run, the domestic PC market still has a weak expectation, reminding everyone to be cautious about investment and not blindly follow the trend. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation)

1、 Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the quotation of o-benzol Sinopec contract remained stable after the festival. Executed contract price of o-xylene Sinopec as of May 18 four thousand Yuan / ton, compared with the price of benzene at the beginning of the month four thousand and two hundred Yuan / ton price down 4.76% 。 Prices are down from the same period last year 37.50% 。 Ortho benzene market remained stable after falling.

2、 Market analysis:

Crude oil market rebounded sharply

After the festival, the crude oil market recovered and the crude oil price rose sharply; as of May 18, the price of wit crude oil rose in May 49.24% ; Brent crude oil price rose in May 22.92% 。 The sharp rise in international crude oil price is good for domestic crude oil market, the rise in the cost of mixed xylene, the rise in the cost of raw materials for o-benzene and the good for o-benzene market.

Trend of o-benzene industry chain

According to the rise and fall chart of o-benzene industry chain in May, the price of o-benzene raw material mixed xylene rose first and then fell after the festival, and the cost of o-benzene rose in shock; the price of o-benzene fell and then remained stable. In general, the market of ortho benzene has limited positive effects, and the downward pressure of ortho benzene still has a strong upward momentum.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of the business association, after the festival, the price of o-xylene raw materials rose, the cost of o-xylene rose, and the growth momentum of o-xylene was strong; for the downstream, although domestic demand recovered, the growth momentum of o-xylene increased. Generally speaking, the good and bad situation of ortho benzene market still exists, and the rising momentum of ortho benzene Market in the future is greater.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of the mainstream manufacturers of salicylic acid on May 15 fourteen thousand six hundred and sixty-six point six seven Yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week. On May 14, the chemical industry index was 639, up 1 point from yesterday, down from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle 37.11% , up from 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020 6.86% 。 (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the trend of salicylic acid is stable this week. At present, the market atmosphere is better, the raw material end is strongly supported, the confidence of the industry is enhanced, the export situation of salicylic acid is better, but the shipment volume is not up to the expectation, and the follow-up ability is insufficient. Salicylic acid was dragged down by demand, and there was no real support for the price rise. This week’s trend maintained stable operation. As of May 15, the industrial price of chemical salicylic acid in Maoyuan, Zhenjiang is about 15000 yuan / ton, the pharmaceutical price is 24000 yuan / ton, and the sublimation price is 22000 yuan / ton. The industrial price of salicylic acid is about 14000 yuan / ton, the pharmaceutical price is 29000 yuan / ton, and the sublimation price is 20000 yuan / ton. The industrial price of salicylic acid in Shandong Longxin pharmaceutical industry is about 15500 yuan / ton, the factory price of pharmaceutical grade is about 25300 yuan / ton, the factory price of sublimation grade is about 18300 yuan / ton, and the factory price of methyl salicylate is about 24300 yuan / ton. The industrial price of Shandong new hualongxin salicylic acid is about 15000 yuan / ton, the pharmaceutical price is 24000 yuan / ton, and the sublimation price is 18000 yuan / ton. The prices of all enterprises have not been adjusted yet.

Industry chain: this week, phenol market was affected by poor demand in the downstream, which stopped rising and turned down. At present, the reference offer in East China market is 6600 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is light. The daily opening and early offer of the carriers are low, but the demand is still sluggish. In the atmosphere of buying up and not buying down, in addition to the high price of phenol in the early phenol rising market, the terminal participation enthusiasm slows down, and the trading is poor. According to the monitoring of the business association, the listing price of petrochemical manufacturers has remained stable at 6900-7000 yuan / ton. However, the prices of major markets were lower. The prices in East China were 6600-6650 yuan / ton, South China 6850 yuan / ton, and Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas were relatively stable at 7000 yuan / ton. The market fell 150-350 yuan / ton this week.

3、 Future forecast

According to salicylic acid analysts of business club, at present, the raw material end is strongly supported, but the demand end is not enough to follow up, and it is expected that the market of salicylic acid will maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid keeps falling. As of May 12, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 8850 yuan / ton, which is lower than the price trend at the beginning of the year 13.57% , down year on year 18.13% , lower than the price trend on May 12, 2018 7.17% , the market price of hydrofluoric acid keeps falling, reaching a new low of two years.

Products: in recent years, the price of hydrofluoric acid in China has declined unilaterally. The goods in the hydrofluoric acid yard are generally sold. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient. However, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is not good. The market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined significantly. In addition, the price of raw material fluorite has declined. The market price of hydrofluoric acid has been affected by certain negative effects. The price of hydrofluoric acid in China has declined significantly. As of May 12, the southern region The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 7500-8500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 7500-9000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the domestic market has dropped sharply. The downstream refrigerant industry purchases on demand. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry is low, and the delivery of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is poor. Some manufacturers report that the price continues to fall in the near future, and some manufacturers report that the loss is serious. The market of hydrofluoric acid has many advantages and disadvantages, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has hit a new low in two years.

Industrial chain: from the industrial chain diagram, it can be seen that the price of upstream and downstream products of hydrofluoric acid will decline in varying degrees in 2020, and the price of upstream fluorite will drop significantly 10.94% As of the 12th day, the factory price of fluorite is two thousand five hundred and seventy-seven point seven eight RMB / ton, the supply of fluorite in China is sufficient, the price of fluorite drops sharply, and the fall of upstream cost price has a certain negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market The grid is affected to lower. In the near future, the price of refrigerant products keeps falling. As of December 12, the price of domestic R22 products is fourteen thousand eight hundred and thirty-three point three three RMB / ton, R134a price is twenty-one thousand six hundred and sixty-six point six seven Yuan / ton, the recent automobile industry sales downturn, the terminal downstream refrigerant market trend is poor, the demand for refrigerant continues to decline, foreign special events are serious, the refrigerant terminal export is not smooth, mainly for the domestic market, but the domestic air conditioning industry started Low level, weak after-sales demand for maintenance, overall, domestic and foreign demand are less than expected. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is reduced, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the price pressure is reduced due to the drag of demand. However, the situation of market price or not is obvious. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises is 14000-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the downstream industry purchase is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, the price of refrigerant products continues to fall, and the price of hydrofluoric acid market is affected by the negative air.

Industry: in the near future, the upstream raw material fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market has sufficient spot supply. In addition, the downstream refrigerant industry purchases on demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has declined.

In the near future, the operation rate of domestic refrigerant units has been kept at a low level. The demand for hydrofluoric acid market is general, and there is strong downstream resistance. In addition, the price of fluorite has been greatly reduced. Chen Ling, an hydrofluoric acid analyst at the business club, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to be slightly lower.