According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate in this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate is 2300 yuan / ton, which is equal to 2300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 13.11% year on year. On April 17, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, unchanged from yesterday, 3.36% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 125.26 (2020-03-15), and 56.46% higher than the lowest point, 77.37, on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China is temporarily stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plants is normal. The on-site supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The price trend of manufacturers is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal. Transportation has been alleviated to a certain extent. The market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. In recent years, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is not good, the downstream purchase is on demand, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2100-2300 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2000-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2200-2600 yuan / ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China fell this week, with the weekend price of 1516.67 yuan / ton, and this week’s price trend fell 3.12%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1450 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1700 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1450 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1630 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation of domestic maintenance devices is normal, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site delivery situation is poor. The price trend of nitric acid market has dropped by 50-100 yuan / ton. The decline of nitric acid price is the negative impact of ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market has been temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia this week is temporarily stable. On the one hand, the current inventory pressure of the manufacturer is not large at the early stage, and the downstream fertilizer replenishment leads to the continuous stability of the manufacturer’s shipment, but most of the manufacturers report stable today, mainly because the spring farming season has passed, the downstream has ended the centralized preparation, the strength of taking the goods has decreased, and most of the purchases are on demand. At present, the overall supply and demand of the market is in a balanced stage. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current quotation of liquid ammonia in the northern region is 3000-3100 yuan / ton, the price trend of upstream raw materials is temporarily stable, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable.

In the near future, the downstream demand is limited, but the market price of raw materials is slightly lower. For the ammonium nitrate Market, it has lost certain cost support. The ammonium nitrate analyst of the business association thinks that the market price of ammonium nitrate may be slightly lower in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market ushered in a long-standing rise. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 2590.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 2706.67 yuan / ton, up 4.5% in the week, with the price down 22.30% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On Tuesday, the trading atmosphere in the methyl ether (Henan) market improved. As of April 10, Hebei Yutai, Shanxi orchid, Dezhou shengdeyuan and other devices had been shut down for maintenance; Henan Yima Xinyuan DME device failed, so no quotation was offered temporarily. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan is 2700 yuan / ton, that of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 2670 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2700 yuan / ton, that of Henan lankaohuitong is 2750 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang is 2650 yuan / ton.

On Tuesday, the market of methyl ether rebounded upward, and the market operating rate slightly increased from last week, about 10%. At the beginning of the week, the rise of international crude oil for two consecutive days boosted the gas market, the rise of liquefied gas generally, and the rebound of cost methanol, which led to the rise of dimethyl ether. Henan xinlianxin rose 20 yuan / ton every day for 4 consecutive days. At present, in the civil market of liquefied gas, many terminals have recovered, demand has increased, downstream procurement is more active, and market entry has improved. The price of DME remained stable at the end of the week, the demand was still limited, and the market benefit was limited.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 14th week of 2020 (4.6-4.10), there are 6 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, including 2 commodities with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are methanol (6.32%), Brent crude oil (5.14%) and dimethyl ether (4.50%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are asphalt (- 10.68%), WTI crude oil (- 10.11%) and power coal (- 3.45%). This week’s average was – 0.71%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the civil use of liquefied gas is mainly stable, and the methanol market is running higher, which has boosted the market. However, the terminal demand of DME market is still limited, with limited benefits. It is expected that the market will maintain stability in the near future.

On April 14, the sulfur commodity index was 32.92, down 1.47 points from yesterday, 68.30% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), and 27.65% higher than 25.79, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur production price in East China fell 4.26% to 600 yuan / ton on the 14th. Last week, the domestic sulfur market showed a cold performance, the enthusiasm of the downstream market procurement was not high, the port inventory was high, and the consumption was slow. In the end of the spring ploughing with fertilizer, the export of phosphate fertilizer was not clear, the market stalemate and wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the attitude of the industry towards the future market was unstable. At present, the domestic supply and demand performance is stagnant, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, the trading atmosphere of the sulphuric acid market is sluggish, and the supply and demand in the market lacks the guidance of substantive information, so the buyer and the seller have different forecasts for the future market. On April 14, refineries in various regions in China adjusted their prices according to their own shipments. Sinopec Zhenhai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced the price of liquid sulfur by 30 yuan / ton, Jinling Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced the price of solid sulfur by 30 yuan / ton, East China region by 57-680 yuan / ton, and liquid sulfur by 510-600 yuan / ton. Sinopec North China region quotation was temporarily stable. Sinopec Shandong region reduced the price of solid sulfur by 20-30 yuan / ton, and the price was 610-620 yuan / ton 。

Future forecast: it is expected that the domestic sulfur market will be weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong Province at the end of this week was 4233 yuan / ton, and the average price at the beginning of this week was 4200 yuan / ton, up 0.79%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4000 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4100 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than last week. The prices of some POM manufacturers rose, and the market demand was average.

Industry chain: upstream methanol situation, domestic methanol market rebounded and began to rise. According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market on April 1 was 1600 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market on April 8 was 1715 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.19%. Compared with the same period last month, the price fell 13.38% month on month and 29.37% year on year.

3、 Future forecast

Polyoxymethylene analyst of business association thinks that polyoxymethylene may go up due to the positive boost of raw material methanol.

Prices remained stable in the first ten days of this month, with 5800 yuan / ton in East China and other regions, except for 5900 yuan / ton in South China.

As of today, the upstream ethylene CFR market price in Northeast Asia has dropped to 355 US dollars / ton. Affected by the international situation, the price is difficult to rise in a short period of time. The profits of ethylene oxide are still considerable. The price of downstream monomer factories has been raised, the purchasing mentality has been enhanced, and the ethylene glycol has stabilized after a narrow rise. However, the overall support surface is still weak and lacks the power to rise. In the future, some devices will be overhauled, and resources on the market may be tightened to a certain extent.

It is reported that tomorrow’s EO will be increased by 200 yuan / ton, but overall stability maintenance should still be the main thing, and timely attention should be paid to the factory news.

1、 Price trend

In March, the domestic propane market continued to decline, with a large range. At the beginning of the month, the average price of propane market was 3717.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 2725 yuan / ton, with a drop of 26.7% in the month. The price was 35.08% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market situation

In March, the trading atmosphere of propane market was light, and the price mainly fell. As of March 31, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. have no propane in stock, so they will not offer. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 2700 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Company is 2800 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 2800 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 2800 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2600 yuan / ton.

It can be seen from the figure that in March, due to the irrational decline of international crude oil, the price of propane Market naturally fell all the way, and the market never recovered. On March 2, the price of international crude oil rebounded sharply under the stimulation of multiple favorable factors, which boosted the mentality of propane Market. In addition, the price of CP was introduced in March, and the decline was less than expected. Downstream more buy up do not buy down mentality, mainly replenishment into the market. The manufacturer’s shipment was smooth, the inventory was released, and the price slightly pushed up. But the good times will not last long. On March 6, OPEC + cooperation collapsed, oil prices plummeted by more than 20%, and propane’s firmness is not there. It follows the trend of crude oil and falls sharply in the short term. On March 16, the international crude oil continued to decline, falling below $30 per barrel again, the cost of imported gas fell, and the propane market was once again depressed, falling 6.57% in just one day. The downstream continued to wait-and-see attitude, entered the market cautiously, and the trading atmosphere of propane market continued to be depressed, with no significant improvement. Until March 19, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rebounded sharply, which brought some benefits to the market. The terminal demand was higher than that in the earlier stage, and the market was able to stop falling and adjust narrowly. At the end of the month, the international crude oil dropped significantly, and the CP price was expected to fall broadly in April, and the propane market fell again.

International crude oil: in March, the international crude oil market staged an amazing avalanche, and the price suffered a “cut back”. According to the data monitored by the business agency, WTI crude oil fell by 57.34%, Brent crude oil fell by nearly 50%. The oil price collapse is naturally one of the “black swan” events in 2020. There are two main reasons: the sharp reduction of global demand caused by social and public events, and the supply risk caused by the “price war” of Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase production.

Latest CP price: Saudi Aramco announced in April that the price of propane and butane were lowered. Propane fell to $230 / T, down $200 / T from last month; butane $240 / T, down $240 / T from last month.

3、 Future forecast

The decline of propane Market in March was relatively large. The main reason for the decline was due to the impact of crude oil. CP’s expectation continued to fall, which continuously depressed the mentality of the industry. The manufacturer’s late shipment situation was light, and the price was constantly lowered to make profits. But during this period, the downstream continued to wait and see, with a more cautious attitude. At present, affected by seasonal factors, with the gradual warming of the weather, the propane market demand is expected to decrease. But at present, the price has been at a low level, and there is little room to fall. It is expected that the propane market will rise to a certain extent in April, and more attention should be paid to the trend of international crude oil.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the domestic market price of isomeric xylene fell sharply this week. As of Friday, the average domestic price was about 3110 yuan / ton, down 8.8% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Products: The overseas epidemic continued to spread, worrying about the shrinking demand for crude oil caused by the economic recession. In addition, the international oil price generally maintained a sharp decline trend before Thursday. Affected by this, the domestic xylene price followed the sharp decline. After trump stepped in the oil price, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively stated that the crude oil production reduction agreement is turning around, the international oil price jumped sharply, and the domestic xylene price finally ushered in a bottoming out recovery At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3600 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price generally maintained a sharp decline trend before Thursday. After trump intervened in the oil price, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively stated that the crude oil production reduction agreement is turning around, and the international oil price jumped sharply. By Friday day, Brent fell 9.36%, Brent futures rose 16.32%, WTI futures rose 11.53%, and Dubai futures fell 14.34%.

Downstream, in PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about 456 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 474 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will fluctuate and rebound next week. In terms of PTA market, the spot market price of PTA in China is about 3400 yuan / ton, and the external market price is about 417 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA prices will stabilize and rebound next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s price of o-benzene fell, with the price at 3800 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene is about 450 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea. It is expected that o-benzene will rebound in shock next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business news agency, in the short term, trump is involved in the oil price. Saudi Arabia and Russia have made statements one after another. The crude oil production reduction agreement is now turning, and the technical impact is expected to usher in a shock rebound. In the medium term, it depends on the demand side, when the inflection point of the epidemic occurs and the progress of economic recovery. Next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement, worries about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption of work. On the whole, it is expected that the price of xylene in the international crude oil market and the Korean market will gradually fluctuate and stabilize next week. In addition, the domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period, and the market demand will gradually improve. In the next week, the price of xylene in the domestic market will fluctuate and stabilize. However, in the environment of high inventory of xylene industry and the industrial chain recovery is not smooth, it is not optimistic to expect the rebound range.

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel fell this week. The price of domestic gasoline was 5194 yuan / ton, 3.11% lower than that of last week. The price of domestic diesel was 5002 yuan / ton, 4.18% lower than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: crude oil futures price falls first and then rises, and the refined oil market follows the price adjustment. Domestic enterprises return to work and resume production, which brings good demand. However, recently, the operating rate of domestic refining and chemical equipment has risen to a high level, and the market price of refined oil is insufficient.

Industry chain: Saudi Arabia has been waging a price war, constantly putting downward pressure on oil prices through increasing production. However, trump has repeatedly released optimistic comments. On Thursday, he tweeted that Russia and Saudi Arabia are expected to cut production by 10-15 million barrels, which was later refuted by Saudi officials, and the increase in international oil prices fell. But as of 15:00 on the 3rd, the price of WTI crude oil was 25.5 US dollars / barrel, and this week, WTI crude oil futures rose 16.5%.

Market: the rebound of international oil price is good for the market price of refined oil, but the average starting load of refining and purchase in recent years has risen rapidly to 70.35%, 8.51 percentage points higher on a month on month basis. On the demand side and on the gasoline side, domestic enterprises have basically resumed production, and the retail price of domestic gasoline has dropped to a low point. Traders and downstream customers have low-cost replenishment operations, and gasoline transactions are acceptable. In terms of diesel, the construction and infrastructure construction maintain a high operating rate. In terms of logistics and transportation, according to the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the prosperity index of China’s logistics industry in March 2020 was 51.5%, up 25.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the logistics and transportation industry picked up faster and supported the demand for diesel oil significantly. This week, the price of domestic refined oil market first fell and then rose, but the increase was limited.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that: at present, crude oil prices are rising and falling by a large margin, market news is long and empty, and there are signs of recovery in the refined oil market. However, the recovery in the operating rate of refinery units has restrained the increase in the price of refined oil, and it is expected that the market price of refined oil will be stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the market price of domestic aggregate MDI continued to be depressed. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI was 12875 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of aggregate MDI was 11750 yuan / ton, down 8.74% in the month, 34.27% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in March, the domestic aggregate MDI market began to fall again after rebounding from its low point, and the fluctuation range of the whole month was about 1000-1300 yuan / ton. It is difficult for the demand side to have obvious positive news, only the occasionally released supplier good news, and it is difficult for the aggregate MDI market price to be stable for a long time. Supply side: the overall load of each manufacturer is still around 40%, and the Ruian plant is still in the state of shutdown. During the whole March, the manufacturer’s information was scarce, and there was no attitude. Occasionally, the market operators released false device information to raise market prices and actively shipped goods. In summary, the market price dropped to 11000 yuan / ton at the end of the month. Trade side: in the early months, the manufacturers put pressure on the traders, and the stocks of the traders were high, and they actively negotiated the shipment at a low price. However, the settlement price at the end of the month is on the high side, and the profit of the agent is seriously reduced. At present, the trade side is cautious in shipment and dare not go too low in price.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell sharply this month. In the month, Saudi Arabia and Russia plan to increase production substantially, and the oil demand is greatly reduced due to the epidemic prevention and control of city closures in overseas countries, and the imbalance between supply and demand leads to a sharp drop in crude oil; while the macroeconomic indicators such as US stocks are also greatly reduced due to the impact of health events. Affected by the above macro negative factors, the price of pure benzene weakened significantly in March, with a drop of more than 2600 yuan / ton in East China. In March, Sinopec’s listing price was lowered seven times, totaling 2750 yuan / ton.

Aniline: in terms of aniline, the domestic aniline market fell in the month. Raw materials: affected by health events and crude oil plummeting, leading to the decline of bulk commodities, Sinopec’s pure benzene fell 2750 yuan / ton to 2600 yuan / ton in the month of listing, with wide fall in cost, weak support for aniline and negative market for aniline

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (55.64%), methylic acid (20.51%) and ammonium chloride (20.48%). There are 59 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 46 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 8.47%.

3、 Future forecast

View of business community: at the end of the month, the listing prices of all suppliers’ factories held steady in April, but the positive boost was weak. The weekly guidance prices of costron and Ryanair showed some signs of bearish, and the post market mentality of the industry was more pessimistic. Good news is hard to find. MDI analysts predict that the MDI market will continue to decline slightly next month, but the agent will be slightly cautious in considering the settlement price of the manufacturer, and the overall decline rate will be slow.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market fell in March. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2310 yuan / ton, down 2.94% from 2380 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 13.61% year on year.

In March, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market fell slightly. In March, some domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices were restarted. In the near future, the supply of goods in the market was normal, and the domestic price trend declined slightly affected by the increase of supply. In the near future, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturer’s shipment is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production a lot. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturer’s commencement has increased, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has slightly dropped. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2100-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2000-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2200-2600 yuan / ton.

In March, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China rose slightly, up 3.23%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1550 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1600 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1750 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1600 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1750 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation of domestic maintenance devices is stable, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the goods in the field are generally transported. In March, the price of nitric acid market rose slightly due to the increase of fertilizer price, and the price of raw material nitric acid rose somewhat, which is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price drop of ammonium nitrate Market is limited.

The price of liquid ammonia in the upstream market rose sharply in March, up 14.2% in March. The domestic liquid ammonia market rose sharply, especially in the first half of the year. The price continued to rise, mainly due to the resumption of work in the downstream after the festival and the recovery of demand. The increase in the northern region was once more than 15%. But at the end of the month, the liquid ammonia market peaked, and the price declined slightly. On the one hand, the price of the manufacturer’s early stage continued to rise, and there was a certain amount of speculation. On the other hand, the peak season of spring ploughing has passed, and the downstream has finished preparing goods, and the strength of taking goods has declined, which led to a slight increase in the manufacturer’s liquid ammonia inventory. Therefore, some manufacturers reduced their prices to eliminate inventory. At present, the price of liquid ammonia in the northern region is 3000-3200 yuan / ton. In the whole March, the market price of liquid ammonia has risen sharply. Due to the price rise of liquid ammonia in the upstream market, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market slightly declined.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal. In addition, the market price of raw material liquid ammonia drops slightly, which loses certain cost support for the market price of ammonium nitrate. Ammonium nitrate analysts of business association think that the market price of ammonium nitrate may be slightly lower in the later period.