1、 Price trend

In this month, ethylene oxide price has been adjusted twice, among which, the price in East China has been reduced from 7600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 5800 yuan / ton, in South China from 7800 yuan / ton to 5900 yuan / ton, and in Northeast, central and North China from 7800 yuan / ton to 5800 yuan / ton.

2、 Industrial chain:

This month, ethylene oxide Market moved greatly, ethylene price fell continuously, ethylene glycol was affected by crude oil, the market kept bottoming out, the progress of downstream infrastructure industry was not fully opened, the terminal export was not smooth, resulting in weak basic support of ethylene oxide, the market price reduction rumors were very noisy, finally fell on the 24th of this month, and cut again today (31), the market bearish atmosphere was strong Depressed. According to the current ethylene price calculation, the profit of ethylene oxide still exists. However, due to the wide range of public health events, there are many negative factors in the industry as a whole and lack of upward momentum.

3、 Forecast:

It is expected that the market will remain stable in the later period, but it is still necessary to pay close attention to the price changes of upstream and downstream products and the latest news guidance of the factory.

1、 Price trend

This week, the lead market (2.10-2.14) continued to rise. The average price in the domestic market was 14012.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 14225 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.52%.

On March 29, the lead commodity index was 84.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.90% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.31% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week’s low price of lunlu lead rebounded, with a weekly increase of more than 4%. This week’s inventory changes little, with a cumulative increase of 175 tons. It is expected that lunlu lead may fall back in the next week. In the spot market, the transaction price this week is 13500-14100 yuan / ton, and the delivery of primary lead this week is good. The market brands of lead are concentrated in Shanghai Jinsha, South China, Henan Jinli, Yuguang and other brands of lead.

Industry: this week, the basic metals are in a state of recovery and stabilization. The main reason is that the Federal Reserve announced unlimited quantitative easing policy, and the major central banks around the world have followed the policy of continuous interest rate reduction and easing. After the G20 meeting, the stimulus policy of introducing more than 5 trillion US dollars into the world was announced. The market gained confidence and left the market short in the week, which made the basic metals recovery.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 8 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities are silver (15.02%), gold (7.72%) and copper (6.48%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are antimony (- 4.98%), silicon metal (- 3.51%) and titanium concentrate (- 3.17%). This week’s average was 0.82%.

3、 Future prospects

Next week will enter April, the domestic situation has been further controlled, local governments and central banks continue to offer various stimulus policies to help enterprises to start a good recovery of life and production order, the market is expected to warm up consumption in April, but the overseas market is still relatively serious, the market risk is dependent, the domestic resistance is still stronger than the external market, and the ratio of some products will continue to be repaired.

In this week (3.23-3.27), the price of NBR continued to be weak. According to the monitoring, the price of NBR this week was 14866 yuan / ton, which was stable and weak as a whole.

From the aspect of raw materials, the price of raw materials is low, and the cost is negative in the face of NBR: according to the understanding of the business community, the price of raw materials butadiene is low due to the drop in crude oil price. At the beginning of this week, the price of butadiene is 5845 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, the price is 5578 yuan / ton, down 4.57% as a whole.

From the perspective of NBR enterprises, the overall operating rate of NBR enterprises is around 70%, the ex factory price of NBR is basically stable, and some of them are not quoted. According to the business association, the NBR unit of Lanzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates normally with stable ex factory price. At present, n41e reports 14000 yuan / ton and 3305e reports 14500 yuan / ton. Nandi’s NBR unit operates normally with the mainstream price of 15700-16000 yuan / ton in 1052 market.

In terms of the downstream, the overall operating rate of the downstream is still insufficient, the delivery of NBR is not ideal, and the downstream procurement is weak, which has a strong negative effect on NBR.

Outlook for the future

According to the NBR analysts of the business club, the price of raw materials has fallen sharply, and the downstream purchase on demand has formed a negative situation for NBR as a whole. It is expected that the NBR market will continue to weaken in the later stage.

On March 24, the cryolite commodity index was 70.85, down 0.81 points from yesterday, down 30.00% from 101.21 (2011-10-31), and up 6.78% from 66.35, the lowest point on September 5, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the average market price of cryolite in Henan Province on the 24th was 5833.33 yuan / ton, and the current market price trend of cryolite is down. The upstream fluorite price trend is slightly stable temporarily. At present, the average price in the domestic market is 3400 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant is relatively low, and there is less resumption of construction of in-situ mines and flotation plants, and the supply of fluorite is still in short supply. In the downstream aluminum industry, the recent increase in the processing cost of aluminum bars has stimulated the downstream production and partially supported the aluminum price. The domestic production of electrolytic aluminum continued to grow, the downstream production of aluminum declined year on year, the electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to increase, and the pressure on aluminum price was greater.

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association, cryolite enterprises are operating normally with sufficient inventory, and the quotation of manufacturers is mainly stable. Environmental protection policies still play an important role. The cryolite market is in order and operation, with specific attention to market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of March 20, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several major areas monitored by the data was around 17000 yuan / ton, which was about 1200 yuan / ton lower than that a week ago (March 13), with a decrease of nearly 7%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the silicone market fell again this week. This weak market decline started from the end of February. Influenced by international public events, the orders of silicone DMC have been few since the beginning of the year. However, the inventory accumulation of more than two months has put a lot of pressure on some manufacturers. From the beginning of March, the negative operation has been reduced, the quotation and equipment maintenance have been reduced, and some manufacturers are looking for ways to stimulate shipment In order to find a way out, the price is also falling again and again. At present, the stock pressure of manufacturers still exists, and the export is also declining recently. There are many parking enterprises, so it is difficult to balance the overall supply and demand of the market. Up to now, the market comprehensive quotation has been reduced by 300-500 yuan / ton again. The mainstream quotation of organosilicon DMC manufacturers is around 16500-17800 yuan / ton. The lowest quotation of some manufacturers is even more 16000 yuan / ton. The market price has almost dropped to the low level, and the raw material cost is close to negative. It is predicted that the subsequent decline of organosilicon DMC will be limited. We hope the market will recover soon.

Industry chain: upstream silicon metal market: in domestic aspect, the market supply end is still low, the production reduction in Xinjiang is large, and it is difficult to improve the operating rate in March. It is expected that at the end of the month, some silicon plants in Yunnan will start production. Downstream 107 rubber Market: affected by the decline of raw materials, the price of downstream silicone product 107 rubber will be explored. At present, the market pressure is not small, the terminal recovery is slow, and the downstream demand release is insufficient. At present, the market reference price is around 17500-18000 yuan / ton, and the market is weak as a whole.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of business club, at present, the market of organosilicon DMC has fallen to a low point. Under the pressure of cost, it is expected that there will be limited downward space in the future. The domestic market is gradually returning to normal. After the demand for downstream products has been increasing, it is hoped that the organosilicon market will usher in spring as soon as possible.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current price of activated carbon is 11150 yuan / ton, and the price drops.

Products: the price of domestic activated carbon is stable and weak. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton. The domestic activated carbon market orders on demand, and it will take time for the market to recover.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the single order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. The environmental protection policy promotes the activated carbon market. The downstream factories purchase goods according to the demand, and the market transaction is light.

Forecast: the market of activated carbon lacks good support, and it is expected that the short-term market of activated carbon will be dominated by weak operation.

1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: melamine market fell slightly this week. The operating rate of melamine enterprises has gradually picked up, downstream users purchase on demand, buying gas in general, enterprise inventory is still under pressure, and this week some enterprise prices are down. According to the data of the large scale list of business associations, the average price of melamine enterprises on the 20th was 5433.33 yuan / ton, down 1.21% compared with that at the beginning of the week, and the mainstream price of domestic melamine market on the 20th was around 4800-5600 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5200 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5100 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in recent (3.9-3.19), the upstream urea price dropped, with a drop of 1.29% in this period. At present, the agricultural demand is weak, the downstream industry is less active in urea procurement, and there is no obvious good support. The downstream procurement is cautious.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on March 19, 2020, among which the top three commodities are isopropanol (3.52%), ammonium chloride (2.85%) and dichloromethane (2.62%). There are 20 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are ox (- 8.00%), propane (- 6.57%), chloroform (- 5.88%). The average price of this day was – 0.54%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to melamine analysts of the business club, it is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be dominated by low-level consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the transaction situation in the mainstream market.

On March 17, the sulfur commodity index was 35.85, up 0.37 points from yesterday, down 65.48% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 39.01% from 25.79, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of sulfur production in East China rose 1.03% to 653.33 yuan / ton on the 17th. The relevant downstream enterprises of sulfur industry resumed construction, the operating rates of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate enterprises increased, Hubei phosphate fertilizer manufacturers started one after another, the supply of downstream phosphate fertilizer increased, the demand for sulfur was improved by fertilizer spring ploughing, which effectively boosted the overall confidence of the market. The enthusiasm of the downstream market entry procurement is weakened and mainly on demand, the buyer and the seller intend to keep the price difference, and the on-site transaction and investment are mostly stuck on the sidelines. In addition to the price stabilization of individual refineries, the prices of refineries in other regions are increased according to their own shipping situation.

Future forecast: it is expected that the domestic sulfur market will wait and see the finishing operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2740.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2730.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.36%, 3.28% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, carbide market fell slightly this week, with the carbide commodity index at 71.53 on March 13.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week: oveganone’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2720 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2580 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; China United Inner Mongolia’s quotation for calcium carbide this week was 2720 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Xingping Ningxia’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2750 yuan / ton , compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: this week, the ex factory quotation of Lancan is temporarily stable, the quotation of small materials is 730.00 yuan / ton, the quotation of medium materials is 820 yuan / ton, and the quotation of large materials is 880 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price fell slightly this week. PVC price dropped from 6250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6237.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.20%, down 2.20% year on year. PVC prices in the lower reaches of this week fell, the market trend is low, and the enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement is also low. As a whole, PVC market this week has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of March, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, the cost support is not enough, the price of PVC in the downstream is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of customers in the downstream is low. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may fall slightly in the middle of March.

1、 Price trend:

In the second week of March, the market of PA6 in China fell and the price of PA6 fell in a weak way, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. As of Friday, March 13, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 12000.00 yuan / ton, down 6.74% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Recent market news hit, crude oil and chemical negative news continued. As crude oil plummeted, the raw material market fell sharply, and pure benzene is now down a lot. Due to upstream drag, caprolactam enterprises in the upstream of PA6 are under heavy pressure. The operators showed insufficient confidence in the future market, and the merchants reduced their orders; the price of upstream caprolactam fell, but the support for PA6 was poor. At present, the price of PA6 in China not only takes on the decline trend of last month, but also presents a new negative challenge. The inventory consumption of slicing enterprises is not good, the downstream return rate is not high, the range of replenishment is difficult to expand, the demand is still weak naturally, and downstream factories follow the strategy of bargain hunting and appropriate replenishment. The business offers are weak, the space for detailed discussion is large, and the price center inevitably falls. The market atmosphere was cold and trading was slow.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the second week of March, the domestic PA6 market fell, and some spot prices fell significantly. The trend of upstream caprolactam is not good, and the support for PA6 cost end is weak. The resumption of downstream factories needs to be further improved and the demand remains low. In recent years, the domestic market atmosphere is cold, and the operators sell at a profit. It is expected that PA6 market will continue weak adjustment in the near future, and it is recommended to operate cautiously.