1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market rose steadily this week, with an average price of 3540 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 6.31% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Boosted by the rise of international crude oil prices, xylene prices rebounded and rose this week. The listed price of xylene in Sinopec’s enterprises rose by 150-250 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is high. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 135000 tons, which is basically flat compared with last week, and the pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3650 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the optimism that the vaccine news will boost crude oil demand at the beginning of the week, and the crude oil inventory decline announced by the American Petroleum Association is significantly higher than expected, which supports the strong rebound of international crude oil. It rebounds to around $43 / barrel on Wednesday and then gradually falls back to close around 40 on Friday. At the beginning of next week, we will focus on the gains and losses of $40 / barrel support. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $3.485/barrel to close at $41.785/barrel, up 9.1% month on month. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week was about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest external price was about 510 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 528 US dollars / ton CFR China. Short term PX market is expected to decline slightly. In terms of PTA market, this week, the market price stopped falling and rebounded. The domestic PTA spot market price was about 3230 yuan / ton, and the external price was about 425 US dollars / ton CFR China. PTA price is expected to maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 4400 yuan / ton of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 553 USD / T FOB Korea and 580 USD / T CFR China. The price trend of o-benzene is expected to remain stable next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene in the domestic market will return slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the recent domestic caprolactam price rise. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on November 9 was 9833 yuan / ton, and that on November 13 was 10000 yuan / ton. The price rose by 1.69% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week due to raw material pure benzene rose, tight supply, good increase, caprolactam prices rose strongly. As of November 13, Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 10700 yuan / ton, cash factory, the factory capacity of 300000 tons, the actual transaction can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price is 10700 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year unit is running normally, caprolactam unit is running normally. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price 10800 yuan / ton. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price 10800 yuan / T, 450000 tons / year, the plant was normally started, accepted and delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 10800 yuan / T, and the 300000 tons / year unit is normally started up and accepted.

Driven by the strong rise of styrene downstream, combined with the strong support of crude oil and external market wide rise, the price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise this week. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was raised twice, from 250 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that due to the rise of raw material pure benzene, the cost is favorable to support, supply is more tight, caprolactam prices are up. The trend of caprolactam is still upward, and some enterprises are still under short-term maintenance plan.

The price trend of some domestic rare earth market continued to rise this week, heavy rare earth price rose, and neodymium series price rose in light rare earth market. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on November 12 was 369 points, up 1 point compared with yesterday, 63.10% lower than 1000 points (2011-12-06) and 36.16% higher than 271 point, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the end of the week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 345000 yuan / ton, up 0.29% from 344000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 435000 yuan / ton, up 0.69% from 432000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of neodymium oxide was 386000 yuan / ton, 3.76% higher than 372000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of metal neodymium was 479000 yuan / ton, 2.79% higher than 466000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The price of praseodymium oxide was 330500 yuan / ton, up 0.92% from 327500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the weekend price of metal praseodymium was 615000 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 615000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

In recent years, the domestic market price of light rare earth continues to rise, the wait-and-see attitude still exists, the trading volume changes little, the manufacturer’s price has been supported to some extent, the price of some light rare earth market continues to rise, and the price trend of other products is mainly stable. Recently, the demand and stock situation of permanent magnet manufacturers are more positive, the price of praseodymium and neodymium series rare earth has increased slightly, and the market price of light rare earth has improved Rise, recently due to the normal supply and demand of praseodymium series products, praseodymium series prices remain stable. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic situation on rare earth production and export, overseas demand has not improved, and the domestic light rare earth market prices have increased slightly recently.

This week, the price trend of domestic direct family rose slightly. By the end of the week, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.735 million yuan / ton, which was 0.29% higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.715 million yuan / ton, which was 0.59% higher this week It is the uncertain information about the collection and storage. At present, Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth. However, the downstream demand is positive recently, and the market price of heavy rare earth has risen slightly. Due to the tight supply, the price of terbium series continued to rise. Recently, the price of heavy rare earth has been at a high level, and the market price of heavy rare earth has continued to rise.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. Favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. Meanwhile, Sino US relations are tense. Key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, and the demand is more positive. This week, the domestic rare earth price continued to rise slightly.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earth has improved, and the downstream purchase is active, and the trading market has risen. Analysts from business agency expect that the rare earth market price will continue to rise slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of November 10, the spot price of 1.4d polyester staple fiber was about 5888 yuan / ton, down 1.65% about 100 yuan / ton compared with 5987.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the spot price of 32S polyester yarn in Shandong was about 13375 yuan / ton, up 0.94% from 13250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, about 125 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, as of November 10, the overall load of upstream domestic PTA plant was stable at 85.25%, and domestic PTA supply will continue to maintain a high level in the near future. Polyester comprehensive operating load is stable 88.05%. In the case of rigid demand in China, the support of downstream demand side is insufficient, or supply exceeds demand.

On September 17, a set of 100000 t / a polyester staple fiber plant in Jiangyin was put into operation. The overall production and sales of the plant were 28.75%, and the operation rate of staple fiber remained high and the production and sales rate decreased. At the same time, according to customs statistics, China imported 14500 tons of polyester in September, with an average import price of 1230.84 US dollars / ton, and the import volume decreased by 13.17% month on month. In the current period, 77400 tons of polyester staple fiber were exported, with an average export price of 825.67 US dollars / ton, and the export volume decreased by 5.02% month on month.

In terms of downstream demand, the domestic weaving load is stable at 83.20%, and manufacturers rush to make “double 11″ orders. It is expected that the construction will be stable in the near future, and the textile manufacturers will follow up the new single order shrinkage. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 93%, and that of water jet and air-jet looms in Shengze is about 80-90%. In terms of inventory, Shengze area grey fabric weaving inventory for more than 40 days, some manufacturers are difficult to do flat production and sales, began to accumulate.

This small rebound in downstream demand has driven the enthusiasm of the market, and the production enthusiasm of manufacturers has obviously improved, but it will also bring about the possibility of overcapacity. As for the domestic textile fabric industry development boom driven by domestic demand and foreign trade, industry professionals generally believe that the domestic clothing industry is still in a historical predicament In the environment. Experts said that the epidemic has caused impact on China’s and even the global supply chain market. The global market has not yet fully recovered and improved. It is too early to talk about the outbreak of China’s textile industry at this time. “The whole industry is still in the state of slowing down and getting trapped, and it needs a recovery cycle.”

Trade name: urea

Latest price (November 9): 1796.67 yuan / ton

The factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose on November 9, 3.34 yuan / ton, or 0.19% higher than that on November 6. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has been followed up, appropriate procurement, industrial demand is in line with the market, mainly follow-up on bargain hunting, and some goods sources continue to gather in port. In terms of supply, some enterprises limited production and equipment maintenance, and local spot shortage.

It is expected that the short-term urea market will rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 1800 yuan / ton.

According to the business agency data monitoring, as of November 6, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in domestic mainstream areas was around 386.67 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as a week ago. Compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 2.65%.

In November, the domestic phosphate ore market has been operating steadily as a whole

In November, China’s phosphate ore market continues to maintain a stable trend. Mining enterprises mainly deal with early orders, while new orders increase little. It is heard that some mining enterprises have the intention to increase the ex factory quotation of phosphate rock recently, but the actual order follow-up is slow, so it has not really been implemented. At present, as of November 6, the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei Province is 360-400 yuan / ton. The quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore car plate in Guizhou Province is 300-360 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade phosphate ore is 280-320 yuan / ton. The price of 28% grade phosphate ore in Yunnan is about 270-290 yuan / ton. The quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore car plate in Guangxi is 300-360 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade phosphate ore is 280-320 yuan / ton.

On the downstream side, the yellow phosphorus market is mainly sorted, and some transactions are slightly closer to the high-end. At present, the reference transaction price of Yunnan Net phosphorus factory acceptance is 15900-16000 yuan / ton. Phosphoric acid market to maintain a stable situation, supply orders to old customers.

Trading atmosphere is light, short-term phosphate rock market is weak and stable

At present, the phosphate ore market is running stably, and the atmosphere of on-site inquiry is still relatively light. Therefore, the phosphorus ore Data Engineer of the business society believes that the overall weak and stable operation of China’s phosphate ore market is expected to be dominated in the short term. It is not ruled out that in order to stimulate the market, mining enterprises in some regions will slightly increase the ex factory price of phosphate ore.

In October 2020, the domestic market price of 1 ᦇ antimony ingot will be raised for three rounds. The average price of domestic market will be 40500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 42500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 4.94%.

On October 29, the antimony commodity index was 59.16, unchanged with yesterday, down 42.18% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), and 25.93% higher than 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

This month, antimony products continued the upward trend before the festival. The import of foreign ore end is still less, domestic raw materials are tight, and the price of ore end is high. The cost pressure of antimony products is relatively high. Domestic manufacturers mainly support the price. In addition, the environmental protection and production restriction in the surrounding areas of the main production areas have affected domestic production to a certain extent, and the supply of antimony ingots is slightly tense. Double positive blessing, antimony ingot market price went up. This month, after four rounds of increase, the cumulative increase of 2000 yuan / ton. As of 30 days, the average domestic market price of 2 ᦇ low bismuth antimony ingot is 41750 yuan / ton, 1 ᦇ antimony ingot is 42250 yuan / ton, 0 ᦇ antimony ingot is 43000 yuan / ton, and the average price of 2 ᦇ high bismuth antimony ingot is 40500 yuan / ton, which is 2000 yuan / ton higher than that of last month. The market price of antimony trioxide closely followed the rising trend of antimony ingot. As of the 30th, the average market price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 38000 yuan / ton and 99.8% at 39500 yuan / ton, an increase of 2000 yuan / ton compared with the same period of last month.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in October 2020, there were 13 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal plate with a month on month increase in the price list of bulk commodities in October 2020, including 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities that increased were titanium concentrate (20.32%), nickel (5.84%) and silicon metal (5.72%). There were 9 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three products were praseodymium (- 8.89%), lead (- 4.77%) and cobalt (- 2.18%). This month, the average rise and fall was 1.19%.

The Business Association believes that under the current tight supply and demand and cost pressure, foreign price rise, antimony product manufacturers are reluctant to sell, worry about future market supply, and the improvement of downstream demand and other favorable factors, the future market price is expected to be stable and strong.

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on October 29 was 38.05, down 0.03 points compared with yesterday, 62.70% lower than 102.01 points (2014-01-09), 26.88% higher than 29.99 points on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

Price rise and fall of domestic main hydrobenzene markets from October 26 to 30 (unit: yuan / ton)

Regional prices rose and fell on the 26th and 30th

East China 3450-3600 3500-3600 – 25

Shandong area 3500 ～ 3550 3350 ～ 3400 – 150

This week (October 26-30), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province was mainly downward, with 3525 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3375 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 150 yuan / ton.

Summary of price adjustment of pure benzene in Sinopec (East China) in October 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

October 9 3300 – 150

October 14 3350 + 50

October 16 3400 + 50

October 20 3500 + 100

October 22 3600 + 100

In October 2020, the price of pure benzene of Yangzi Petrochemical (Sinopec East China) will be lowered once and increased four times. As of October 22, the price will be 3600 yuan / ton.

This week, as the external market of pure benzene and the crude oil market both fell, the hydrobenzene market fell. Last week, the hydrobenzene market went up sharply with the price of pure benzene. The cost of downstream products increased and the profit decreased. They were against the high price. The purchasing enthusiasm was general, and replenishment was mainly on demand. This week, the tender price of crude benzene was lowered, and the price of Shandong Province was reduced by about 120 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream demand, the main demand areas in East China and North China are concentrated in the maintenance of downstream devices from late October to November, and the overall market demand is expected to weaken to some extent. However, at the end of the fourth quarter, new production capacity will be put into production in North China. At present, the market mentality remains stable for a long time.

As for the aftermarket, the business community believes that styrene’s impact on the industrial chain will be weakened this week, and the market trend will mainly follow the changes of supply and demand. In the short term, the hydrobenzene market will be mainly consolidated. In the fourth quarter, we should still focus on the impact of new downstream capacity and crude oil price on the market.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the recent domestic caprolactam price rise. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on October 26 was 9733 yuan / ton, and that on October 30 was 9800 yuan / ton. The price rose by 0.68% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, caprolactam downstream demand decreased, caprolactam prices fluctuated slightly. As of October 30, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9400 yuan / T, and the factory had a production capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price of 10200 yuan / T, 400000 tons / year of the plant normal operation, caprolactam unit normal operation. The price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid is 10100 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 10100 yuan / T, 450000 tons / year, the plant is normally started up and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 10100 yuan / T, and the 300000 tons / year unit is normally started up and accepted.

This week, the domestic market price of raw material pure benzene fell slightly. Affected by the fall of styrene price, the rising trend of pure benzene Market stopped and began to fall. In the short term, the domestic pure benzene market began to fluctuate.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the current caprolactam price rise slowed down, raw material pure benzene market began to fall. Downstream PA6 began to digest inventory, and the market held a wait-and-see attitude. Due to the weak demand for caprolactam downstream, it is expected that the short-term market trend of caprolactam will be weak and stable.

Zinc price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring shows: since October 16, the price of zinc has risen, and the zinc market has recovered. As of October 28, the average price of zinc was 20163.33 yuan / ton, up 3.12% compared with 19553.33 yuan / ton on October 16 at the beginning of the month.

Fed’s measures to extend quantitative easing

On October 9, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the Fed would expand quantitative easing if the economic recovery slowed. In addition to Evans, a number of Federal Reserve officials have recently supported the expansion of QE, calling for more fiscal policy. Quantitative easing policy is good for macro-economy, boosting the future economic expectation, and the future zinc market is expected to recover.

EU may increase its easing policy

As the epidemic returns, many institutions expect the European Central Bank to maintain stability this week, but in view of the deteriorating economic outlook of the euro area, Lagarde will release the signal of the December meeting to increase QE. The early fermentation of the loose expectation of the Bank of Europe puts pressure on the euro, and the euro may fall sharply. Loose monetary policy, stimulate economic recovery, good for zinc market.

Analysis, review and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, said: the United States and the European Union have successively issued stimulus policy signals to stimulate the market to recover, which is good for the zinc market. However, in the past few weeks, the epidemic situation in the European Union and other places has intensified, leading to new local blockade restrictions, and the possibility of the economy facing pressure again is rising. The macro-economic environment is not ideal, the growth of zinc market in the future is under great pressure, and the rising power of zinc market in the future is expected to be limited. On the whole, the positive signals of macro policies continue to stimulate the recovery of zinc market, but the global economic environment is not good, the effect of policy stimulus is still to be determined, and the zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future.