On February 18, the HFA commodity index was 98.00, flat with yesterday, 30.21% lower than 140.43 (2018-02-21), the highest point in the cycle, and 82.87% higher than 53.59, the lowest point on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. Up to now, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 10800 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is more than 50%. The enterprises reflect that the supply of spot hydrofluoric acid in the field is tight at present. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the units in Zhejiang, Henan and other provinces have not been started, and the market of hydrofluoric acid in the field has improved recently. Due to the general downstream demand, the market of hydrofluoric acid in the field has improved The factory price of hydrofluoric acid was increased, while the market price of hydrofluoric acid increased slightly. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is about 10500-11000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 10000-10500 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly, and the supply of spot goods was tight, but the demand situation was not clearly improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly.

The price of fluorite in the upstream market has increased slightly. Recently, fluorite manufacturers are limited in construction, and the supply of fluorite is very tight. The price of fluorite has been at a high level. As of the 19th, the price of fluorite was 2922.22 yuan / ton. The high price of upstream raw materials has brought certain cost support to the hydrofluoric acid market. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable due to the price support of raw materials fluorite. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is slightly light. At present, the automobile industry is in holiday, the domestic R22 supply is tight, the domestic refrigerant R22 market price trend is stable, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production device is still not high, the supply of the market supply is general, the downstream air conditioning manufacturer stops more, the demand changes little, and the price mainstream of the domestic large enterprises rises to 16000-18500 Yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is stable for the time being, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. However, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price remains stable, the downstream market changes little, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable for the time being.

Generally speaking, the turnover in the refrigerant field is not very big. For the upstream hydrofluoric acid market, the unit operation rate of the refrigerant industry has little change. However, with the shortage of fluorite supply and certain support for the cost, Chen Ling, an analyst of the business club, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise slightly.

On February 17, the fluorite commodity index was 102.14, up 0.39 points from yesterday, down 19.88% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 107.56% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of fluorite in China has increased slightly. As of the 18th day, the average price of fluorite in China is 2922.22 yuan / ton. In recent years, the operation rate of fluorite plant in China is relatively low, and there is less resumption of construction of mine and flotation plant in the field. The supply of fluorite in the field is very tight. Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has increased slightly. For the purchase on demand in fluorite market, the goods in fluorite field are in good condition, and the price trend of fluorite market is good Slightly higher. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is tight, and the downstream of the terminal is purchased on demand, resulting in higher market price. As of August 18, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3100 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2900-3200 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite rose slightly.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite is rising. As of the 18th day, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China is 10800 yuan / ton. The price rise of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, in the near future, the operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, and the demand for fluorite is normal. Due to the impact of the epidemic, some enterprises have not yet started construction, the supply of goods in the site is relatively tight, and the price of fluorite is small The amplitude is higher. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is slightly light. At present, the automobile industry is in holiday, the domestic R22 supply is tight, the domestic refrigerant R22 market price trend is stable, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production device is still not high, the supply situation of the market supply is general, the downstream air conditioning manufacturer stops more, the demand changes little, and the price mainstream of the domestic large enterprises rises to 15500-18500 Yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. However, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, and the price remains stable. The downstream market changes little, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rises slightly, and the downstream market rises slightly. In addition, the recent high price of hydrofluoric acid market, the fluorite market is favorable Support the higher price.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is rising slightly, the supply of fluorite is tight, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is rising recently. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

The price of pure benzene fell slightly this week, according to the data in the business club’s large list. Last Friday (February 7) the price of pure benzene was 5400-5600 yuan / ton, and this Friday’s price was 5200-5800 yuan / ton, down 0.7% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: pure benzene port stock accumulation this week. The process of downstream resumption is slow. In addition, styrene plant reduces production and raw materials are released. At present, pure benzene is in the situation of two weak supply and demand, and is still affected by transportation.

2. Crude oil: the crude oil market is still restricted by the epidemic this week. However, the market is concerned about the process of OPEC production reduction, and the impact of the epidemic has eased. This week, the crude oil market recovered. WTI was up 2.2% and Brent was up 4.07% compared with February 7.

3. Downstream industry: most of the downstream enterprises of pure benzene operate at reduced load, and some factories stop. The price of styrene in Shandong this week was 6600 yuan / ton, down 5.04% from last Friday. Jinling aniline plant was shut down, the supply of goods decreased, but due to the constraints of downstream demand, the price increased slightly.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: next week, the oil price will focus on the process of OPEC production reduction and the recovery of the epidemic.

1. Market: some pure benzene enterprises reduce load operation, and hydrogenated benzene plants also have a decline.

At present, there is not much negative factor. Next week, we should pay attention to the recovery of transportation and the resumption of downstream enterprises.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 #)

2. Latest price (2020.02.12): 12091.67 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11700-11900 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11800-11900 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12600-12800 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 12100-12300 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 12200-12400 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

In the near future, two factors have been superimposed, leading to the positive market of silicon metal. Factor 1: domestic logistics is tight and spot supply is weak; factor 2: foreign demand is strong. On the one hand, the consumption of reserves before the festival is large, the inventory is low, and the demand for replenishment is strong; on the other hand, several foreign large aluminum alloy enterprises have started a new round of bidding, which is a combination of domestic supply concerns and strong price expectations.

4. Future forecast: the freight is tightening, and it is expected that the short-term operation of metallic silicon will be strong.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic market of cyclohexanone was stable. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning and the end of the week was 7383 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the same period last month, down 17.96% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: after the Spring Festival, the market of cyclohexanone is basically closed, with few transactions. In the week, Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene twice reduced 450 yuan / ton to 5500 yuan / ton. The cost support was insufficient. However, due to the impact of national traffic and road logistics and transportation, most of the terminal plants were delayed to return to work, the starting load of downstream caprolactam was reduced, the demand for cyclohexanone was also reduced, the inventory of cyclohexanone plants was increased, the load reduction production was carried out, the traders did not return to work temporarily, and the market atmosphere was relatively strong , cold delivery. In terms of price, the quoted price of cyclohexanone is still the price before the festival. The mainstream factory price is 7300-7450 yuan / ton, and there is no transaction price for the moment. Before the festival, 7400-7500 yuan / ton of surrounding spot exchange will be delivered to Shandong market, 7700-7900 yuan / ton of East China market, 7900-8000 yuan / ton of South China market..

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene: after the festival, affected by the health events, the terminal was delayed to return to work, and the downstream was reduced in succession, resulting in a serious lack of follow-up of pure benzene market demand. In addition, there are various traffic restrictions. After Sinopec successively lowered the listing price of pure benzene to 5500 yuan / ton, the futures negotiation price in February and March weakened to 5300-5400 yuan / ton. However, due to the same logistics constraints, some downstream need to replenish pure benzene, and buying supports the spot price. Therefore, despite the reduction of futures price, the spot negotiation remains at a relatively high level of 5650-5800 yuan / ton.

Caprolactam: spot trading in the caprolactam market has not resumed this week. Due to the extension of the Spring Festival holiday and the postponement of resumption of work in the downstream areas, most of the terminal enterprises have not resumed work, and the new demand has not yet been released. In addition, the national road transportation has been affected, the trans provincial transportation is difficult, and the transportation and demand conditions have led to an increase in the inventory of caprolactam manufacturers. This week, the factory actively reduced production. At present, the overall operating rate of domestic caprolactam has dropped to 62.49%. Downstream contracts are mainly executed, and Sinopec’s advance collection price in February is reduced by 450 yuan / ton to 11550 yuan / ton (liquid, premium products, six-month acceptance and self withdrawal).

Adipic acid: in January, the market practice entered the Spring Festival holiday, and the sudden health and safety incidents developed rapidly. In most regions, road transportation at all levels was restricted, and short-distance delivery was also significantly affected. The market was much lighter than before. At the end of January and the beginning of February, the adipic acid plant completed the invoicing work, and the price increased by 300-400 yuan / ton compared with the previous month. Until now, most areas of the country have restricted the commencement of construction, which has been temporarily postponed to February 10. However, only a few enterprises have heard about and stopped the continuous production of adipic acid plant due to transportation restrictions, while others still have a proper production scheduling. Some relevant personnel are on duty or rotation. Recently, Shandong and other places have also adopted policies to guide the transportation of industrial and agricultural materials, and enterprises have also actively supported and provided cooperation services for customers, but there is no downstream service It is difficult for many factories to deliver goods to the outside world.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by the national transportation and logistics, on the cost side, the pure benzene inventory increased, the market price was expected to be lowered, and the market support for cyclohexanone was insufficient. On the demand side, the start-up of the terminal plant is delayed, and the enthusiasm of downstream caprolactam procurement is expected to decrease. Under the inventory pressure, the cyclohexanone analysts of the business community predict that the market price of cyclohexanone is more likely to linger near the cost line, and the price is likely to be lowered.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2215.00 yuan / ton, down 8.47% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the January 10 potassium chloride commodity index at 70.32.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2180 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium chloride market overall trend or low consolidation in late January. After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply this week. As of January 17, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 4750.00 yuan / ton, up 137.50 yuan / ton, up 2.98% from 4612.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; up 250.00 yuan / ton, up 5.56% from 4500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1); down 21.05% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product analysis:

This week, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and rose. The ex factory price in North China was about 4600-4800 yuan / ton, the price in East China was about 5000 yuan / ton, and the price in South China was about 5300 yuan / ton. The price rose, and the actual transaction price rose about 200 yuan / ton. The acetic anhydride manufacturer’s inventory is low, Yankuang’s acetic anhydride inventory is low, and the shipment is difficult. Hualu Hengsheng’s acetic anhydride inventory is low, and the normal shipment, the acetic anhydride supply is insufficient, and the downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm increases. The market of acetic anhydride is good, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride is increasing.

Industry chain factor analysis:

As can be seen from the figure, the price of acetic acid rose this week. After the festival, the price of acetic acid rose sharply. The cost of acetic anhydride rose. The driving force of acetic anhydride rose. The market of acetic anhydride was good, and the price of acetic anhydride rose.

It can be seen from the figure that the methanol price rose this week, continuing the trend after the festival, the price rose sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the power of acetic anhydride rose increased, and the price of acetic anhydride rose, which is good for the future market of acetic anhydride.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, the price of acetic acid and methanol, the raw materials of acetic anhydride, rose sharply this week, continuing the rising trend of the price of acetic acid and methanol after new year’s day. The cost of acetic anhydride rose sharply, the market of acetic anhydride was good, and the price of acetic anhydride rose; the stock of acetic anhydride manufacturers was low, the shipment was difficult, the supply of acetic anhydride was insufficient, and the rising power of acetic anhydride market increased; the Spring Festival was coming, the next tourists Customers are hard to prepare goods, logistics and transportation are difficult, purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers of acetic anhydride is rising, supply of acetic anhydride is insufficient, demand is rising, and acetic anhydride market is good. On the whole, the power of acetic anhydride rising in the future is increased, and it is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will rise in the future.

Magnesium market trend

 
The Spring Festival is coming, and magnesium ingots are expected to have a smooth spring festival. According to the data of the business agency, the average market price of domestic magnesium ingots on January 17, 2020 is 14083.33 yuan / ton, and the recent price is relatively stable.

On January 17, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas remained stable. The specific price range is as follows:

The ex factory cash exchange including tax in fugu area is 138500-14100 yuan / ton; the cash exchange in Taiyuan area is 14000-14100 yuan / ton; the cash exchange in Wenxi area is 14050-14200 yuan / ton; the cash exchange in Ningxia area is 13900-14000 yuan / ton.

The Spring Festival is coming, and the trading is fading

Close to the Spring Festival, the trading tends to be weak, and the magnesium ingot market runs smoothly. It is reported that the magnesium ingot manufacturers’ pre-sale situation has occurred from time to time in the near future. The manufacturers’ low price pre-sale, after all, there is a rapid return of capital demand at the end of the year. At present, the downstream alloy manufacturers and magnesium powder manufacturers have completed their stock in succession years ago. The downstream raw material inventory has accumulated to a certain extent, and there are not many magnesium ingot manufacturers in stock, so there is a balance between supply and demand.

Data review in 2019

Production end:

According to the preliminary statistical data of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, 763900 tons of original magnesium were produced by the Communist Party of China from January to November 2019, an increase of 11.16% year on year. Among them, the cumulative production in Shaanxi is 465900 tons, up 19.01% year on year; the cumulative production in Shanxi is 108500 tons, up 13.41% year on year; the cumulative production in Ningxia is 51500 tons, down 18.51% year on year.

According to relevant statistical data, it is estimated that the domestic original magnesium output in 2019 will be about 927700 tons.

Consumer end:

According to relevant statistics, the domestic consumption is 472300 tons. In terms of import and export, it is estimated that 446500 tons of various magnesium products will be exported. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, from January to November 2019, China exported 409300 tons of various magnesium products, a year-on-year increase of 9.29% and a cumulative amount of US $1.048 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.08%. Among them, the total export of magnesium ingot is 217900 tons, up 14.54% year on year; the total export of magnesium alloy is 100900 tons, down 0.61% year on year; the total export of magnesium powder is 77900 tons, up 6.88% year on year.

Forecast for future market

Supply and demand are in a stalemate, adding that the Spring Festival is coming, and trading tends to be weak. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will maintain stable operation in the near future, and the actual transaction situation in the market will be focused in the later stage.

1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Association)

2、 Market analysis:

On January 15, melamine market was temporarily stable. According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the mainstream price of melamine in the domestic market on the 15th was around 5200-5400 yuan / ton, the same as that on the 14th. In a half year cycle, it fell 3.78% year on year. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5400 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

On January 14, the melamine commodity index was 63.80, the same as that on January 13, down 36.20% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-18), and up 11.99% from the lowest point of 56.97 on February 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast:

According to melamine analysts of the business agency, as the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the logistics is tight, and the downstream is going to have holidays one after another. The market exchange and investment atmosphere is gradually fading, and the enterprises are generally in the market. It is expected that the domestic melamine market will be stabilized temporarily in the short term.