1、 Melamine price trend:

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic melamine market this week was stable, flat compared with the beginning of the week (January 6), and the mainstream domestic melamine quotation on the 10th was 5200-5400 yuan / ton. In a three-month cycle, it fell 5.82% year-on-year. On January 10, the melamine commodity index was 63.80, the same as that on January 9, down 36.20% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-18), and up 11.99% from the lowest point of 56.97 on February 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the domestic melamine market is stable this week. At present, the operating rate of melamine enterprises has not changed much, and the supply side is fair. As the downstream factories continue to have holidays, the demand side is weak, and the enterprises mainly implement the early orders. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5400 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the factory price (1.6-1.10) of urea in Shandong Province in the upstream this week rose slightly, or 0.20%. The upstream liquid ammonia price (1.6-1.10) fell slightly, with a decline of 0.57%. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions, and it is not ruled out that the possibility of further exploration of low ammonia is possible.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast:

Melamine analysts believe that the recent raw material urea prices rose slightly, the price of liquid ammonia fell slightly, and the impact on melamine is limited. At present, the market trading atmosphere is light, and there is no strong positive factor support. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic melamine market will be dominated by stable operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on January 13, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 6575.00 yuan / ton. This week, pet market fluctuated in a narrow range.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: polyester bottle Market in East China narrow finishing. At present, the offer of mainstream manufacturers is around 6800-6850 yuan / ton, the market spot mainstream negotiation is around 6550-6650 yuan / ton, Zhejiang wankai’s latest offer is 6750 yuan / ton, China Resources chemical Holding Co., Ltd. 6700 yuan / ton, Anyang polyester material factory 6700 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: PTA Market of raw materials maintains consolidation, with general cost support. The offer of bottle chip manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the focus of market negotiation is low-end. Downstream cautious wait-and-see, market trading light.

On January 12, the pet commodity index was 50.38, flat with yesterday, down 51.45% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), the highest point in the cycle, and up 5.53% from 47.74, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 
3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts believe that: in the short term, the focus of negotiation is low, and the main thing is to watch carefully.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on January 6 was 6850 yuan / ton, down 0.36% compared with the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on the weekend (10 days), up 5.41%%% compared with the same period last year. On January 10, the PVC commodity index was 86.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.52% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-05), and up 48.41% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week PVC market overall weak, prices fell slightly. In recent days, the U.S. – Iraq conflict has led to a narrow range of volatility in the futures market, and the spot market has begun to weaken in stability, and the heat has gradually subsided. With the close of the new year, the downstream factories are going to have holidays one after another. Before the new year, they were not actively hoarding goods and basically maintained their rigid needs. Facing the high price of PVC for a long time, the downstream products industry began to feel tired. At this stage, the social inventory has increased, the downstream demand is weak, there is pressure on businesses to ship, the actual trading is average, and the market is weak as a whole. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 10, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6600-6950 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 6850-6950 yuan / ton, that of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 6750-6950 yuan / ton, and that of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is 6850-6920 yuan / ton. Prices around the country remained stable on the whole and fluctuated slightly.

Futures: in recent days, the U.S. – Iraq conflict has led to a narrow range of volatility in the futures market, with the main PVC v2005 contract surging higher, closing at 6620 yuan / ton, up from + 105 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume of 128599 hands, + 27528 hands; positions of 269917 hands, + 42080 hands, basis difference of 200 yuan, – 105 yuan; 5-9 price difference of 45 yuan, + 10 yuan.

Industry chain: disturbed by various news, although the US Iraq conflict temporarily released the easing signal, the contradiction still exists, and there is certain uncertainty in the direction of the situation. In the short term, crude oil will continue to fluctuate broadly, and ethylene market will rise. In terms of calcium carbide, after the adjustment in December, the capital return of each factory was in good condition, the equipment maintenance was completed, and the production capacity increased. This week, the ex factory price of carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are four kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which PC (4.38%), cis-1.67% and natural rubber (0.55%) are the top three commodities. There are 6 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis. The top 3 products falling were PP (- 0.86%), HDPE (- 0.85%) and NBR (- 0.82%). This week’s average was 0.16%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: at present, the social inventory of PVC has increased, the downstream demand is weak, there is pressure on businesses to ship, and the focus of individual transactions has shifted down. With the approaching of the annual pass, downstream factories have been on holiday, and the demand side support is weak, and it is expected that PVC will be under pressure in the short term.

On January 8, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On September 9, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose, the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices was stable, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers was general, the downstream purchased on demand, and affected by environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stopped production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started construction limited, and the market price trend rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2200-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2600 yuan / ton. Affected by the environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers have restarted. The demand for ammonium nitrate has increased, but the price of raw materials is at a low level, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is rising.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to maintain a low level, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1600 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1600 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650 yuan / ton, the price trend is weak. The delivery of nitric acid is general. The low price of nitric acid has a certain negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. The market of domestic liquid ammonia in the upper reaches has declined sharply, and enterprises restart the pace of reduction. Some prices in the northern region have declined, and most manufacturers’ quotations are flat. Some enterprises in Shandong, the main production area, have stabilized, and the prices in the northwest region have remained stable. At present, the local ammonia scale At present, it is abundant, especially some manufacturers in Shandong Province have loose supply of goods, and the pressure of enterprise shipment is increasing gradually. However, the manufacturers with large ammonia quantity are mainly stable in price, and they are going to sell goods in succession. The main quotation in Shandong Province is 2850-2950 yuan / ton. In North China, the liquid ammonia is also stable, and the lack of demand leads to the slow delivery of liquid ammonia. After urea conversion, the ammonia quantity is controlled. The inventory pressure of the enterprise is slightly relieved. At present, there are many downriver stoppages, and the main quotation in North China is 2800 yuan / ton. The pressure of environmental protection in Hebei is still not to be underestimated, which leads to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises, such as China and Afghanistan, leads to weak demand in the downstream, more enterprises accumulating in the warehouse, and no significant change in price. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2800-2850 yuan / ton, and the price rise of ammonium nitrate Market is limited. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that the market price of upstream raw material nitric acid keeps low in the near future, but the downstream demand has increased, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will rise slightly in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone was stable this week. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week and the end of the week was 7383 yuan / ton, 2.78% higher than that of the same period last month and 6.93% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the market of cyclohexanone was stabilized and sorted out. The main price in Shandong was 7300-7450 yuan / ton (ex factory in cash). The external price of some factories was increased, and the low price was reduced. During the week, pure benzene was running at a high level, and cyclohexanone was still mostly at a loss. It was sold at a low price. The downstream chemical fiber partial oxidation process was purchased, and the solvent just needed to be purchased. The total demand was general, the market delivery speed slowed down, and cyclohexanone was in abundant spot supply, and the market was consolidated. In terms of price, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong market is delivered in 7400-7500 yuan / ton spot exchange, the mainstream quotation in East China market is delivered in 7700-7900 yuan / ton spot exchange, and the mainstream negotiation in South China market is delivered in 7900-8000 yuan / ton spot exchange.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: this week, pure benzene fell slightly. In terms of price, the mainstream negotiation in East China is 5780-5850 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 5600-5800 yuan / ton. This week involves cross year and new year’s Day holidays, the market trading activity is relatively weak. At present, the listing price of the main business in January is high, and the price difference between the settlement price in December is wide. However, the downstream products suffer losses, and the pure benzene price is under pressure. It is expected that the main business price will be lowered. In addition, due to the expected increase of subsequent arrival ships and the expected market entry of new large-scale chemical qualified products, the industry expects the supply of pure benzene to increase in the future, and the price has a downward expectation. Therefore, the overall market atmosphere in the week is light, and the focus is slightly weak.

Caprolactam: this week, the caprolactam market continued to be strong. Sinopec’s listing price of caprolactam in January 2020 is announced at 11500 yuan / ton (liquid superior products will be accepted and delivered in six months), which will give a certain boost to the market. The slice inventory of the downstream polymerization plant decreased, and the recent raw material stock was centralized. In addition, the North plant was affected by the haze and the multi load was not high. The supply of caprolactam in the field was tight, which supported the seller’s quotation to rise. In terms of price, the spot price in East China market was 11000-11100 yuan / ton, which was delivered by acceptance, up 100 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, up 0.91%.

Adipic acid: the adipic acid market is waiting for the end of invoicing before the new year’s day and the beginning of the month after the new year’s day. The overall activity is not high, and the market is light and volatile. Specifically, the billing policy is the focus of the week. In December, the listing of pure benzene main business increased 650 yuan / ton, the average price increased 209 yuan / ton, and the actual price of adipic acid increased 100-200 yuan / ton reasonably. Waiting before New Year’s Day is the main thing. A small number of Liaohua spot and new moon offers are all above 8 words. On the middle of the week and new year’s day, it is also the first working day after the festival. Although the pure benzene spot is weak, but the high starting point and adipic acid factory’s attitude towards the market still pressure the middlemen. The new single offer is relatively high-level consolidation. The downstream is flat and some small households gradually have shutdown plans. The demand and enthusiasm for replenishment of raw materials are not high. Further attention should be paid to the attitude of raw materials and main manufacturers. At present, the spot market is waiting for exploration. The new single offer is more than 8000-8250 yuan / ton for acceptance. The supply of Taihua goods needs to be restored. The activity of counter-offer negotiation is not high. The weekly average price of East China market is 8007 yuan / ton, up 1.55% on month basis and 2.19% on year basis.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, the demand for chemical fiber is low, the solvent is purchased on demand, the delivery speed of cyclohexanone slows down and the start-up has not declined significantly, the market is abundant in spot supply, near the Spring Festival, the solvent may be in stock in January, some cyclohexanone oxide process caprolactam plants also have the possibility of further outsourcing, the total demand may slightly improve, but it will not significantly promote the market price. Under the pressure of cost, the cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expect that the market of cyclohexanone will not rise or fall in January.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 market fell slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average ex factory price of domestic first-class chlorinated paraffin 52 products was 5100 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price at the end of the week was 5033 yuan / ton, down 1.31%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4600-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton 。 The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the overall transaction atmosphere of the current market is general, and the demand is weak. The price of wax in upstream raw material liquid remained stable, and the market price of liquid chlorine was slightly reduced.

3、 Future forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analyst of business association, from the perspective of demand, the domestic market has limited demand for chlorinated paraffin; it is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be weak in the later period.

1、 Price trend

At the beginning of this week, EPS price was 9075 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, EPS price was 9087 yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 0.14%. The market was more volatile, and the transaction turned better. Traders and downstream factories have increased their enthusiasm for receiving goods, mainly focusing on market transactions.

2、 Market analysis

EPS Market: EPS market price rises, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, ordinary material price is 9000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Dongying Hairong EPS is 9050 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 9100 yuan / ton for common materials.

3、 Future forecast

The enthusiasm of EPS downstream plants to receive goods has improved, and the market price has been supported. It is expected that the EPS market will be mainly in shock consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market this week showed a downward trend. The average price of ethylene at the weekend was $762.25/ton, down 0.29% from $764.50/ton at the beginning of the week, and the current price was 13.97% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene overall fell this week. Asian ethylene market prices fell, as of the end of the week, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $747-755 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $667-675 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell slightly. As of the end of the week, the European ethylene market price of FD northwest Europe closed at US $853-866 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $765-774 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region remained stable. By the end of the week, the price was US $346-359 / ton. Overall, during Christmas, the European and American ethylene market was closed, and the whole ethylene market fell. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on December 26, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to 61.68 US dollars / barrel, up 0.57 US dollars or 0.9% over the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures rose to 67.92 US dollars / barrel, up 0.72 US dollars or 1.1% over the previous trading day. According to the news, OPEC has extended the production reduction agreement to 1.6 million barrels / day. In the later stage, the business community believes that in 2020, oil prices still need to pay attention to two aspects: on the one hand, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction; on the other hand, the actual decline in crude oil demand brought about by the global economic slowdown. However, in the early stage, the oil price fell by a relatively high margin, which did not play a supporting role in ethylene, and the external market of ethylene fell. The price of downstream styrene fluctuated and consolidated, and the price of ethanol remained stable, which could not play a supporting role in the price of ethylene, and there was a possibility of falling.

3、 Future forecast:

According to ethylene analysts of business and chemical branch, affected by the news that China and the United States will soon sign the first phase of economic and trade agreement, major stock markets in the world will rise, and the atmosphere of oil futures market will be boosted. Therefore, data analysts of business and chemical branch expect that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future, not excluding the possibility of rising.

Price trend of spot precious metals

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average spot price of domestic gold on the 31st was 342.54 yuan / g, up 3.58% compared with 330.70 yuan / G on the 1st day, and up 20.57% compared with 284.10 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On the 31st, the spot price of domestic silver was 4376.33 yuan / kg, up 7.07% compared with 4087.33 yuan / kg on the 1st, and up 20.97% compared with 3617.67 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year (01.01).

Main factors influencing the rise of precious metals on 31st

1. Geopolitical factors: on the night of December 29 local time, the U.S. military launched air strikes against a militia organization, people’s mobilization organization, active in Iraq and Syria. Rising tensions in the Middle East have triggered market risk aversion.

2. In an environment where more than 70% of national sovereign bonds trade at negative real interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold has decreased significantly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on December 30, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 6575.00 yuan / ton. This week, pet market fluctuated in a narrow range.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of products: the cost pressure increases, the loss situation persists, the manufacturer keeps the price actively, the delivery speed is slow, and the downstream demand is poor. The latest quotation of Zhejiang wankai is 6750 yuan / ton, that of China Resources chemical Holding Co., Ltd. is 6700 yuan / ton, and that of Anyang polyester material factory is 6700 yuan / ton.

On December 29, the pet commodity index was 49.44, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.35% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), the highest point in the cycle, and up 3.56% from 47.74, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts believe that: in the short term, the focus of negotiation is low, and the main thing is to watch carefully.