1、 Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the quotation of o-xylene Sinopec contract was stable and o-xylene market was stable in December. As of December 27, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6200.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of 6200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price is 12.68% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product analysis

In December, the price of benzene was slightly fluctuating and rising. On December 20, the price of benzene in China was 785 US dollars / ton, 32 US dollars / ton higher than 753 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of benzene in South Korea and Southeast Asia was 10 US dollars / ton higher. In December, the external price of ortho benzene rose, the import price of ortho benzene rose, the port price of ortho benzene rose, the port inventory is still at a low level, and the future market of ortho benzene has a certain positive momentum.

Factor analysis of industrial chain

In December, the price of mixed xylene fell sharply, and the overall price fell 6.01% in December. The price of raw materials mixed with xylene fell in December, the cost of o-benzene fell, and the market of mixed xylene p-o-benzene was negative.

In December, the price of phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell. The market fluctuated and adjusted, and the overall price of phthalic anhydride was negative. In terms of plasticizers, the price of DOP rose slightly in December, but the overall start-up of plasticizers was limited and the demand was general. In December, the market of phthalic anhydride, plasticizer and other downstream products fell in shock, which was negative for ortho benzene market, while the downward pressure on ortho benzene market increased and the upward momentum weakened.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of business association, in December, the price of o-xylene raw materials mixed with xylene fell in shock, the cost of o-benzene fell, and the market of o-benzene was negative; in terms of demand, the market of phthalic anhydride fell in shock, the market of o-benzene was negative, the market of plasticizer was general, the downstream demand of o-benzene fell in general, and the market of o-benzene was negative; in terms of external market, the price of o-benzene in external market slightly shocked Swing up, low port inventory, good for domestic market of neighboring benzene. To sum up, in December, the market of o-xylene was more bearish and less favorable, while the future market of o-xylene was under more downward pressure.

The future market should focus on: the price trend of downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizer. Attention can be paid to: o-benzene cost and o-benzene outer disk.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on December 25, the market price of BPA was 10016.67 yuan / ton, and the domestic BPA market was slowly rising.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: domestic bisphenol A devices are in normal operation and supply, bisphenol a market in East China is in firm trading and investment, traders have strong intention of price fixing, low price is relatively hard to find, the mainstream range is around 10000-10050 yuan / ton, downstream factories are mostly passive follow-up, inquiry atmosphere is light, transaction is general, 10100 yuan / ton in North China market, 10100 yuan / ton in East China market, 10500 yuan / ton in South China market.

Industry chain: upstream phenol and acetone price narrow range finishing, general cost support.

On December 24, the chemical industry index was 739, up 2 points from yesterday, down 27.26% from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 23.17% from 600, the lowest point on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Bisphenol A analysts of business association think that the market of bisphenol A will run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the statistics of the business agency, the price of domestic potassium sulphate fell sharply in 2019. The price of 50% particles in Mannheim, Hebei Province, was 3000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and 2800 yuan / ton at the end of the year, a decrease of 8.2%. It can be seen from the price trend in the figure above that the maximum price of 50% particles in Mannheim appeared at the beginning of August, with a maximum price of 3100 yuan / ton. After that, it has been in a step-by-step decline. By the end of the year, the quotation was 2800 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price was lower. Because the sales were not ideal, the later quotation was unintentional, and the transaction preferences were a single negotiation.

2、 Market analysis

Judging from the price trend, the potassium sulfate Market in 2019 can be divided into three stages as a whole.

The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of May. The domestic potassium sulphate market is not hot and the price of 50% particles in Mannheim fluctuates up and down at 3000 yuan / ton. Although the demand for spring ploughing has been gradually promoted since April, the positive news is limited, and the impact of inventory pressure and upstream potassium chloride has been in a downward trend, which has not supported the price to continue to rise.

Since the export tariff of chemical fertilizer was completely liberalized in 2019, potash fertilizer has cancelled the policy of pricing by volume, which is more affected by the positive effects. The export volume of potassium sulphate has unexpectedly run up, and the growth rate has been far ahead. Although the overall export volume is not large, but for the whole potassium sulfate Market, it has played a role in boosting market confidence.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the market demand for upstream potassium chloride in the off-season is not strong, the port has a lot of inventory and pressure, and the price falls near the cost line. There is no news about the big contract negotiation at the end of May. At the end of May, the main quotations of 62% white potassium and 60% Dahong granules at the port were around 2350 yuan, 200 yuan / ton lower than the price around 2550 yuan at the beginning of the year.

The second stage is from June to mid August, which is the golden time of potassium sulphate. The maximum price of 50% particles of Mannheim is 3100 yuan / ton. At the end of May, the maintenance plan and the bidding for agricultural potassium sulphate of tobacco system presented by luok brought a wave of good news to the trend of potassium sulphate. After the end of June, potassium sulphate stands out in the situation of sluggish national fertilizer market, and the trend is optimistic all the way.

From the perspective of market supply, at that time, the operating rate of potassium sulphate industry was running at a low level, while the operating rate of potassium sulphate in water salt system was not high, and the production of luok could not be resumed until the beginning of September. Therefore, first, the output has declined, second, some manufacturers have good water supply, fertilizer dissolution and export sales in the early stage, and the storage pressure of potassium sulphate manufacturers is not large, combined with the cost advantage, all of which form a certain support for the price.

The third stage is from late August to the end of December. From the figure above, we can see that the trend of potassium sulfate is step by step, directly falling below the lowest price last year. In the second half of this year, the overall trend of fertilizer market is relatively poor, especially the leading variety urea, which has declined sharply, seriously affecting the market sentiment. However, potassium sulfate is mainly used as the raw material of compound fertilizer production, which is greatly affected by the start-up status of compound fertilizer enterprises. Due to the low demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fell to about 35%, and the demand for potassium sulfate weakened. The second half of the year is the peak season of tobacco fertilizer bidding, but this year’s tobacco fertilizer bidding did not have a great pulling effect on the potassium sulfate Market, mainly because the bidding volume was basically stable, and the bid price did not exceed the market expectations.

In the face of all kinds of declining trends, several domestic tobacco bidding, the production of potassium sulfate in Taiwan reduced, the domestic potassium sulfate export to Southeast Asia and other places increased significantly, but also failed to maintain the golden time position of potassium sulfate, and the domestic potassium sulfate market gradually integrated into the vortex of historical trend. Therefore, the demand for potassium sulphate in the second half of the year is small and the stock is large, and the overall price will accelerate downward under the guidance of low price.

Import and export statistics

Export quantity and growth trend of potassium sulphate from January to October 2015-2019 (unit: ton)

After the elimination of export tariff, the export of chemical fertilizer in 2019 has experienced different degrees of growth, in which the growth of potassium sulfate export has skyrocketed. According to the data of China Customs, the export volume of China’s potassium sulphate from January to October 2019 was 293369 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3851.4%; the export volume of China’s potassium sulphate from January to October 2019 was 14993000 US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3679.3%.

Import quantity and growth trend of China’s potassium sulfate from January to October 2015-2019 (unit: 10000 tons)

According to the data of China’s customs, from January to October 2019, the import volume of potassium sulfate in China was 50000 tons, down 9.2% year on year; from January to October 2019, the import volume of potassium sulfate in China was 19423000 US dollars, down 9% year on year.

Forecast for future market

According to analysts of potassium sulphate of the business association, the price of domestic potassium chloride in the upstream is beginning to stabilize in the near future. Whether it improves depends on the next year’s major contract. However, international potassium chloride is still slowly declining, and there is no opportunity for improvement in the short term. Next year, there are plans to reduce the production of potassium sulfate in the water salt system. In the second half of the year, the market of by-product sulfuric acid has been growing steadily. Now, the market is the best period in recent years. Most of the manufacturers have changed from the pre paid money to the money they can sell. However, once the price of sulfuric acid has declined significantly, the cost advantage brought by the decline of potassium chloride will be offset for potassium sulfate. In 2020, potassium sulphate will also face the pressure of inventory and the pressure of profit. It is impossible to get better in the short term. Whether there is an opportunity for improvement in the later period depends on whether the overall environment and demand increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 6662.50 yuan / ton on December 23, which made pet market weak this week.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of products: the cost pressure increases and there is a loss situation. At present, the operating rate is lower than that of last week, but some manufacturers still have inventory pressure and poor downstream demand. The latest quotation of Zhejiang wankai is 6800 yuan / ton, that of China Resources chemical Holding Co., Ltd. is 6900 yuan / ton, and that of Anyang polyester material factory is 6800 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials: PTA processing fee has been raised, and the cost end is not supported well at present. Pet demand is weak in the short term, and the bottle chip market may be in a dilemma under the deadlock of high inventory and loss.

Industry: on December 22, pet commodity index was 50.09, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.73% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), the highest point in the cycle, and up 4.92% from 47.74, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts believe that: downstream demand is weak, inventory pressure of some manufacturers is obvious, and there is room for price decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong fell this week. On December 16, the average price of formaldehyde was 1066.67 yuan / ton, and on December 20, the average price of formaldehyde was 1060.00 yuan / ton, down 0.63%. The current price fell 15.54% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the price of formaldehyde in the domestic market has fallen. As of the 20th, the mainstream factory quotation in Hebei is about 980 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation in South China is about 1180 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong is about 1000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation in Jiangsu is 1150 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons and formaldehyde content of 37%. The plant has been restarted. Formaldehyde plant restart more, formaldehyde market stock increased, formaldehyde Market Trading atmosphere is cold, the enterprise shipping pressure increased, the price fell slightly.

Industrial chain: the domestic methanol market continues to be weak, and the local price slightly falls. In terms of the mainland market, the overall change is not big, the demand side remains light, and some enterprises make a small profit when the shipment is weak. It is reported that under the red warning in Henan and other places, some downstream enterprises stop production and vehicle transportation is also limited, which needs continuous attention. In the port market, inventory continued to decline and the market fluctuated in a narrow range, with little change as a whole. However, after the port price was raised, arbitrage with the mainland was closed, and shipment weakened. Limited support for formaldehyde. The downstream market is affected by the environmental protection regulation, the overall operating rate has declined, the demand has shrunk slightly, and the price of formaldehyde tends to decline.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, methanol in the upstream has been sorted in a narrow range, with a small fluctuation in cost and a cold trading atmosphere in the market. The operating rate in the downstream market is generally maintained and just needs to be purchased. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the domestic formaldehyde price or low level consolidation is the main trend in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of domestic potassium nitrate fluctuated and consolidated this week. This week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4350.00 yuan / ton, and the current price was 5.43% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the trading atmosphere of domestic potassium nitrate Market is cold this week, the overall inventory is at a low level, the manufacturer is in the maintenance period, and the operating rate is at a low level. At the same time, the actual turnover is low, and the downstream purchase volume just needs to be replenished. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will be mainly weak and consolidated in the short term. The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers is 4200-4500 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). According to different purchase conditions, the quotation is not Same.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of potassium nitrate in the business agency, the recent market of nitric acid is volatile, spot trading is tepid and tepid, and the manufacturer’s mentality is general. It is expected that the demand for potassium nitrate will not be greatly improved in the short term, and the market may continue to be consolidated.

On December 15, the fluorite commodity index was 101.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.64% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 105.59% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of fluorite in China has increased slightly. As of the 16th day, the average price of fluorite in China is 2894.44 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic fluorite device has been started normally, the mine and flotation device in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field has been normal, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has increased slightly in recent years. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the stock situation in the fluorite field is normal, and the price trend of fluorite market is slightly up and down Up. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is normal, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, resulting in limited market price increase. As of June 16, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite slightly increased.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite remained volatile. As of the 16th, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China was 10240 yuan / ton. The rising price of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is normal, and the price of fluorite remains low. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has remained low. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. However, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, and the downstream market has improved. In addition, the recent hydrofluoric acid market has a rising trend, so the fluorite market may be well supported.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry has improved, the supply of fluorite in the North has declined gradually, and the recent market of hydrofluoric acid has a rising trend. According to Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, the market price of fluorite may rise slightly.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, this week’s pure benzene continued to make good profits last week and rose rapidly, with Sinopec raising its listing price twice. On Friday, the listing price of pure benzene enterprises was 5250-5450 yuan / ton, and on Friday, the listing price of pure benzene was 5700-5850 yuan / ton, up 7.74% from last week.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: the port inventory of pure benzene continued to decline this week, and the domestic spot supply of pure benzene was limited, which was good for the price of pure benzene.

2. Crude oil: due to OPEC’s deepening production reduction and favorable trade prospects, crude oil rose in shock this week. WTI was up 1.49% and Brent was up 1.19% compared with December 6.

3. External market: this week, the Asian pure benzene market was forced to empty in January, which caused the focus of Asian pure benzene price to move up, driving the domestic pure benzene price higher.

4. Related industries: this week’s styrene parabola trend, an overall increase of 0.9% over last week; this week’s downstream aniline demand is fair, mainly affected by the cost side, rose passively by 8.51%. However, the overall profit of downstream pure benzene enterprises is low, which limits their growth.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: the progress of the trade agreement smoothly boosted the market, and it is expected that the oil price will be boosted next week.

2. Market: at present, the domestic spot supply of pure benzene is tight, which has certain support for the market in the short term. But this week’s rally was too fast and downstream pressure surged. It is heard that Zhejiang Petrochemical had the export of pure benzene in December. In addition, the situation of short selling was postponed, and the price of pure benzene in the later period was negative.

Comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the pure benzene will be stable and weak in operation next week.

On December 9, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On October 10, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China fell slightly. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plants was stable, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate plants was general, the downstream purchased on demand, and affected by environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still had a lot of production stops, the domestic ammonium nitrate plants started limited work, and the recent nitrogen fertilizer prices kept falling, which brought certain benefits to the ammonium nitrate Market Under the influence of air, the price trend of ammonium nitrate declined. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi Province has declined to 2100-2200 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei Province is 2300-2400 yuan / ton. Affected by the environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, and the raw material cost keeps falling. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is slightly lower Slippery.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to maintain a low level, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1600 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1600 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650 yuan / ton, the price trend is weak. The situation of nitric acid delivery is general. The low price of nitric acid has a certain negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. The market of upstream domestic liquid ammonia is rising, and the trend of some enterprises in Shandong is rising by 50-100 yuan / ton. The price in Northwest China remains low. Currently, the local ammonia volume is normal. The mainstream price in Shandong is 3100-3300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price in Hebei is 3050 yuan / ton- 3150 yuan / ton, the rise of liquid ammonia market has a certain positive impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market, and the price drop of ammonium nitrate Market is limited. In the near future, the demand of the downstream nitrogen fertilizer industry is in the off-season, the market is not good, and the market of the civil explosive industry has not changed much. For the market demand of ammonium nitrate, the purchase is on demand, the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, but the market price of raw materials remains high, and the general price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable due to the commodity market. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that in the near future, the price of upstream raw material nitric acid market continues to be low, while the downstream demand is still low, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will be slightly lower in the later stage.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1616 yuan / ton, and the offer was temporarily stable.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid is stable temporarily, that of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical industry is 1500 yuan / ton, the price is stable; that of Anhui Jinhe is 1550 yuan / ton, the price is stable; that of Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid is 1800 yuan / ton, the price is stable temporarily. The quotation of Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1750 yuan / ton, which is stable temporarily. The demand of nitric acid market is general, and the quotation of enterprises is mainly cautious.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, rose 3.64% this week according to the monitoring of the business association. Downstream aniline, the market price of aniline in Shandong on Friday was 6500 yuan / ton, and the market price of aniline in Shandong on Friday was 6100 yuan / ton, down 6.15% from last week.

III. future forecast

Nitric acid market demand is light and stable, and enterprises mainly wait and see. Nitric acid analysts of business association predict that the nitric acid market may continue to be weak.