This week, the lead market (4.1-4.8) fell first and then rose. The average price in the domestic market was 16365 yuan/ton last week and 16345 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 0.12%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the range of fluctuations, and the overall market trend has been stable, moderate, and strong in recent times. The lead ingot market has had relatively small fluctuations in recent times.

The lead ingot market has remained in a low season recently, with relatively small market fluctuations during this cycle. The overall trend has declined first and then increased, and prices have fallen due to high inventory before the holiday. During the Qingming Festival, macro factors such as geopolitical sentiment and risk aversion have boosted the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal market. During the holiday period, external lead prices have risen, while Shanghai lead prices have risen after the holiday. However, due to fundamental constraints, the increase is limited. From the perspective of supply and demand, silver prices have been relatively high recently, which has boosted the enthusiasm of smelters to start production. The supply of lead ingots is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the downstream market is still in a seasonal off-season, and the overall sales of lead-acid batteries are weak. Currently, manufacturers are mainly actively digesting inventory, maintaining the principle of replenishing inventory when necessary for raw material procurement. Some manufacturers also have maintenance plans, resulting in overall weak downstream demand. Overall, the supply of lead ingots is relatively stable. In terms of demand, it is in a seasonal off-season. The recent changes in supply and demand have been limited, and the market is operating weakly, but overall fluctuations are not significant. It is expected that the market will continue to experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

Industry data:

On April 7th, the base metal index was 1208 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 88.16% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 7th, the non-ferrous index was 1133 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 26.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 86.66% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 14th week of 2024 (4.1-4.5), there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 12% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are praseodymium neodymium alloy (5.71%), metallic praseodymium (5.70%), and praseodymium oxide (5.59%). There are four products that have experienced a month on month decline, with the top three products experiencing a decline being silicon metal (-0.93%), lead (-0.64%), and cobalt (-0.22%). The average increase and decrease this week was 1.71%.

The market for ortho xylene rose in the first quarter

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 31st, the price of ortho xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.58% compared to the price of ortho xylene on January 1st, which was 7600 yuan/ton. In the first quarter, the trend of ortho benzene continued to rise at the end of 2023. Starting from February, the trend of ortho benzene growth slowed down, and the price of ortho benzene temporarily stabilized from March to April.

Mixed xylene fluctuates and rises, while the cost of ortho xylene increases; The price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, with plasticizers operating at a high level. The phthalic anhydride market is weak and stabilizing, and the demand for ortho xylene is weak. The demand support for rising costs is limited. In the first quarter, the ortho xylene market rose, but in March, the ortho xylene market remained stagnant, and in April, the upward momentum for ortho xylene increased.

The price of mixed xylene raw materials fluctuates and rises

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of April 7th, the quoted price of mixed xylene was 7710 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.62% from the price of mixed xylene on January 1st, which was 6970 yuan/ton; Compared to March 31st, the price of mixed xylene increased by 2.53% to 7520 yuan/ton. In January, the price of mixed xylene continued to rise, while in February and March, the price of mixed xylene stabilized strongly; In early April, mixed xylene saw a significant increase. The expected decrease in mixed xylene supply in the second quarter is evident in the support of the mixed xylene market. And crude oil prices continue to rise, mixed xylene prices rise, and the cost of ortho benzene increases.

Downstream prices of phthalic anhydride are weakly consolidating

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of April 7th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7612.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.33% compared to March 31st when the price of phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton; Compared to the price of 7662.50 yuan/ton on January 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride has decreased by 0.65%. In the first quarter, domestic phthalic anhydride plants operated steadily, with sufficient spot supply of phthalic anhydride. The purchasing situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers was average, and the production of plasticizers was at a high level. The expected production of plasticizers in April decreased, and the demand for phthalic anhydride in the future market was expected to be weak, leading to a consolidation of phthalic anhydride prices in the future.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society’s neighboring xylene data, in terms of cost, crude oil prices continue to rise, coupled with an increase in mixed xylene maintenance in the second quarter, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and rose in the second quarter, leading to an increase in the cost of neighboring xylene; The expected start of plasticizer production in the second quarter has decreased, and downstream phthalic anhydride manufacturers are generally selling goods. The phthalic anhydride market is weak and temporarily stable, and the demand for ortho xylene remains weak. In the future, the demand support for rising costs is limited, and the upward momentum of the ortho benzene market still exists. It is expected that the ortho benzene price will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend declined in March. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.19% from the beginning of the month price of 4060 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%.

In March, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market declined, and the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was stable. Recently, there was sufficient supply of goods on site, and downstream procurement was not active. The market price of ammonium nitrate mainly declined. Recently, downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizer has been average, and the purchasing atmosphere in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry has cooled down. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, but the price trend of ammonium nitrate has recently declined. As of the end of the month, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5300-5500 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3600-3800 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 3700-3800 yuan/ton.

In March, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid continued to decline, with an average price of 1750 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 7.41% from the initial price of 1890 yuan/ton. Mainstream enterprises in East China quote 1700-1800 yuan/ton, while northern and central China quote 1700-1900 yuan/ton. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is sufficient, and the cost trend has slightly increased. The market mainly relies on orders, and the market transaction situation is not good. Industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see, and the on-site price of nitric acid has significantly decreased, while the market price of ammonium nitrate has declined.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia has significantly increased this week, with a price of 3323.33 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 11.65% compared to the price of 2976.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The amount of ammonia released in the main production areas in the north has decreased, and some units in Shandong have increased their production of urea. The market has shown tight supply, and prices of large factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei have significantly increased. In addition, downstream procurement is active, and manufacturers have raised factory prices. Currently, the mainstream quotation in Shandong is between 3300-3400 yuan/ton, and the decline in ammonium nitrate market prices is limited due to the impact of cost increases.

Recently, the procurement in the downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizer is in the off-season. The price of nitric acid is showing a downward trend, while the market trend of liquid ammonia is rising. The combined influence of long and short factors has led to market fluctuations in ammonium nitrate prices, with some showing a downward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic TDI price continued to decline in March. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 17900 yuan/ton. On March 31, the TDI price was 16100 yuan/ton, and it was reduced by 1800 yuan/ton within the month, with an overall decline of 10.06%.

The TDI market continued to decline in March. The demand in the terminal sponge market is weak, with limited new overseas orders, low downstream purchasing enthusiasm of TDI, and a small amount of rigid demand procurement in the market. On site trading is light, which has a negative impact on the demand side; In terms of supply, the news from factories is mostly quiet, with some releasing discounted supply and weekly guide price reductions, which is bearish on the trade market. Holders lack confidence and are offering discounts to sell, causing the market’s transaction center to continuously shift downwards. At the same time, affected by the mentality of buying up but not falling, TDI prices are operating weakly.

The upstream toluene market rose in March, with a price of 7350 yuan/ton as of March 31st, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month’s price of 7210 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94%. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; The decrease in port inventory has supported the upward trend of toluene.

According to TDI data analysts from Business Society, currently TDI factories in China are mainly on the wait-and-see side, while trade markets are negotiating shipments. The focus of transactions continues to decline, and there is a bearish atmosphere in the market. Downstream terminal market transactions are limited, and TDI demand support is weak. Business owners are mostly on the wait-and-see side. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to be weak and consolidate. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

Price trend

In March, the domestic PA66 market remained stable with some growth. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on March 27th, the domestic PA66 mixed benchmark price was 22900.00 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+1.03% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

Adipic acid: Due to the high price of adipic acid at the end of February and poor downstream follow-up in March, the performance of adipic acid has gradually weakened this month. The price of raw material pure benzene first rose and then fell, and there was no positive release on the supply side. Under the continued accumulation pattern, the offer of adipic acid continues to loosen, weakening support for PA66.

Hexanediamine: The market for hexanediamine has been operating strongly this month, and the market has been affected by multiple increases from international major factories, resulting in a gradual increase in prices. The improvement of the tight supply pattern in the superimposed market is limited, and it is expected to maintain a high point in the short term; Overall, the cost of two materials, one strong and one weak, provides sufficient support for the PA66 market.

In terms of supply:

This month, the operating rate of the domestic PA66 production line remained low and adjusted. The overall industry load during the month remained basically unchanged compared to the end of February, with an average of over 62%. At present, the production of enterprises is stable and there is no accumulation of inventory. The price adjustment operation is clear, and the supplier’s support is still sufficient.

In terms of demand:

Entering March, textile, electrical, and modification enterprises have been following a routine in stocking and consumption, with most of their procurement operations maintaining production as the main focus. The main force of on-site trading is supported by the follow-up of demand, and the buyer camp has slight resistance to high priced goods. Traders have strong confidence in stabilizing prices and are actively engaged in price fixing operations. The demand side has average support for PA66.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 remained stable with an increase in March. The raw material market continues to be strong, providing sufficient support for the cost side of PA66. The PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is also low. The demand changes of terminal enterprises are limited. It is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

Domestic cobalt prices fluctuate and fall

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on March 26th was 224600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06% from the high cobalt price of 227000 yuan/ton on March 19th last week. The United States has abandoned purchasing reserves of cobalt, and the international cobalt market demand is lower than expected. The rise in cobalt prices has supported a decline, and this week cobalt prices have fluctuated and fallen.

Increased uncertainty in cobalt demand growth

In 2024, the overall domestic economy is in a state of recovery, and the cobalt market is expected to recover. However, there is still uncertainty in the terminal demand for cobalt. The policy supports the development of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the consumption of cobalt in the market. However, as the supply of cobalt raw materials increases and the share of lithium iron phosphate is squeezed, the demand for cobalt in the market may be difficult to meet expectations, and the support for the rise in cobalt prices is limited.

According to sources cited by the media, the United States considered purchasing cobalt for defense reserves last year, with the aim of increasing cobalt reserves to reduce dependence on foreign countries. The market expects cobalt prices to drop to $16 per pound, which will stimulate the United States to purchase cobalt reserves. However, cobalt has not been listed as a weak link in the need for reserves, which is unexpected in the market. US cobalt reserves have just decreased in demand, and overall cobalt market demand is lower than expected.

The import volume of cobalt raw materials increased year-on-year

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in January was 69453 physical tons, equivalent to 20938 metal tons, an increase of 32.95% month on month and 133.65% year-on-year. The import volume of cobalt raw materials in February was 44761 physical tons, equivalent to 13585 metal tons, a month on month decrease of 35.12% and a year-on-year increase of 76.26%. The total import volume of cobalt raw materials from January to February was 114214 tons, equivalent to 34523 metal tons of cobalt. From January to February, cobalt raw materials gradually arrived at the port. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival, ship arrivals were delayed, and the overall arrival volume of cobalt raw materials in February decreased. It is expected that the arrival volume of cobalt raw materials in March will increase, with an expected arrival volume of 15000-16000 metal tons.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the uncertainty of increasing demand in the cobalt market has increased, and the demand for cobalt reserves in the United States has decreased, resulting in overall lower than expected demand in the cobalt market. In the future, the amount of cobalt raw materials arriving at the port has increased year-on-year, and the supply of cobalt in the market has significantly increased; However, there are still doubts about the degree of recovery in the field of ternary power batteries, the degree of improvement in demand for 3C electronics, and the increase in demand for hard alloys. The demand for cobalt in the market is still uncertain, and it is difficult to determine the increase in supply and demand. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PP market has been rising recently, and prices of various wire drawing brands have mostly increased. As of March 22nd, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7771.43 yuan/ton, up or down+0.83% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, there have been positive trends in the international crude oil market recently, which has supported the recovery of the cost side of oil based PP. Crude oil drives downstream propylene to fluctuate and rise, while propane generally stabilizes, providing strong support for propylene production and PDH. The methanol market is also relatively stable, but due to weak demand, market prices have quietly dropped, which has loosened support for PP. The overall support for PP from upstream raw materials is still acceptable.

Overall, the raw materials have remained stable with some growth, and there is still support for the PP cost side. The industry load fluctuated narrowly, with an average load of around 76% this week. There are some production line maintenance plans for next week, and at the same time, the new production capacity in March has not been fully implemented, and the market supply has not reached the expected level. At the same time, the overall inventory position has declined, and there is no significant supply pressure in the market. In terms of demand, the load of terminal enterprises is basically horizontal, and the comprehensive operating rates of downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding are about 40%, 64%, and 56%, respectively, with no significant improvement. The replenishment operation of enterprises is average, and the trading atmosphere on the market is not strong. The overall market for wire drawing materials is affected by the expected positive effects of cost and supply tightening, and the market is warming up.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 22, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7637 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of 1.66% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 1.36% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen an increase in low load, with a relatively high operating rate of 26%. The load on end enterprises has increased, and the market non-woven fabric contracts have risen narrowly. The digestion speed of end products has not improved, and the main support for fiber material prices comes from the cost side. It is expected that the fiber material market will continue to consolidate.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has recovered this week. As of March 22, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 7987 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -0.16%, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.19%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. In addition, downstream factories have a low load, resulting in new orders leaning towards loose orders. It is expected that the melt blown material market will continue to be weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has strengthened recently. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is stable with some increases, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. There is an expectation of tightening PP supply next week, and there is a positive outlook on the supply side. But terminal enterprises operate steadily, stock up is necessary to maintain production, and on-site trading is average. It is expected that the PP market will remain strong in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4737.50 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4762.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.06%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is operating in a narrow upward trend. Anqing Shuguang and Xiaoyi Xindongheng equipment maintenance; Guangju New Materials, Yunnan Qumei, and Yunnan Pioneer Plant have reduced production; Daqing Methanol Plant, Sinopec Great Wall, and Xinjiang Xinye Plant have been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors. The low volume of methanol arriving at the port and the low level of port inventory have provided strong support to the market, resulting in a slight increase in the methanol market.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has slightly increased, and cost support has improved. The market for polyformaldehyde is expected to follow suit, and polyformaldehyde analysts from Business Society predict that the price may increase slightly.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 20, 2024, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 3866 yuan/ton. Compared with March 13 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate is 3816 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has recently experienced a slight upward trend. At present, the overall supply of dimethyl carbonate in the factory has increased. Although the supply has increased, the overall downstream demand side of dimethyl carbonate has improved. Supported by demand, the overall inventory pressure of dimethyl carbonate factories is still controllable. Therefore, the overall focus of the dimethyl carbonate market is moving upwards. As of March 20th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 3650-4000 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the market is mild, and the mentality of the operators is good. Dimethyl carbonate factories mainly arrange orders and shipments. According to the data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly operate steadily, with a small to strong trend. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the downstream paint demand is average. This week, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly decreased. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of new pentanediol in the mainstream market in China dropped from 10666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10633.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.31%, and the weekend price increased by 0.31% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, new pentanediol enterprises started construction at a high level, and mainstream market prices slightly declined.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price has slightly declined this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8766.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 2.59%, and the weekend price increased by 19.55% year-on-year. The upstream isobutyraldehyde has a weak center of gravity, with a slight decrease in market prices and insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of new pentanediol. From the perspective of downstream demand, the recovery of the downstream paint industry is slow, and demand remains weak. The enterprise has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with a focus on essential procurement.

3、 Future prospects

In late March, the market trend of new pentanediol may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with enterprises mainly focusing on procurement for immediate needs. Business Society’s new pentanediol analyst believes that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.