I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, polysilicon market in October did not continue the high market in September. The price stopped rising and the increase was quite limited. Especially in the late ten days, the market gradually cooled down, but the pressure of supply and demand was not great, the market showed some rigidity, and the price did not fall significantly. As of October 30, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the overall growth rate of domestic polysilicon solar grade was 1.62%, and the average price of the enterprise was 63000-67000 yuan / ton, and the current price fell about 20% year on year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 7300-760 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is narrower than that in September.

II. Market analysis

In the whole month, the domestic polysilicon market performance is relatively stable. After going through the slow bull market of “Jinjiu”, the polysilicon market has entered a stable period at present. As the overall market temperature has not continued, the procurement remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the purchase price of polysilicon will continue to fluctuate in the next month. From the perspective of supply and demand, the current market performance is relatively balanced. On the one hand, the market supply is sufficient, and the overhaul rate of large factories is low, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large. At present, there are four polysilicon enterprises in the overhaul period by the end of the month in 15 domestic polysilicon production enterprises, and the overhaul is expected to continue to November. At present, most enterprises have started to sign orders in November, which is also an important factor supporting the price of polysilicon. In October, the domestic polysilicon output was about 3160 tons, an increase of 4.6% on a month on month basis. The increase of domestic production in October mainly comes from the release of new production capacity of Yongxiang, Xinjiang GCL, Xinjiang Daquan and other enterprises, with a total increase of 2500 tons on a month on month basis. Generally speaking, the supply in October is enlarged, but combining with the price stability, we can infer the rigidity of polysilicon downstream demand. The market is still at the end of the “silver ten” peak season, with relatively active supply and demand performance.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: in October, the polysilicon market demand continued the momentum of September. Although it did not expand significantly in September, it was still in a moderate growth, and the market demand was relatively stable. Previously, the silicon material price corresponding to the silicon chip price was relatively low, so the pressure of polysilicon enterprises is indeed large at present, but with the polysilicon demand stabilizing in the near future, the overall situation It is not conducive to the price of overall polycrystalline products, so it also limits the price of polycrystalline silicon to continue to rebound. The trading performance of overseas polycrystalline market is more active than that of domestic market, especially the small material market. Considering the change of exchange rate, the high price market has increased. The main reason why the domestic polysilicon price did not continue to rise is that the demand did not continue to enlarge.

III. future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that at present, the market of polysilicon has stabilized, and there are four polysilicon companies that have not resumed normal operation by the end of the month, two of which are expected to resume in early November. According to the operation status and production and maintenance plan of silicon material enterprises at home and abroad, the polysilicon supply in November is slightly less than expected. Considering that the current inventory pressure of enterprises is not large, there is still a certain risk in polysilicon supply. In addition, the trend of polycrystalline silicon in the future mainly depends on the change of demand: the demand begins to shift to the single crystal market, so the single crystal market may be better than the polycrystalline market. Accordingly, the single crystal will occupy part of the polycrystalline demand, while the polycrystalline demand shows a decreasing trend. However, the maintenance of the silicon enterprise affects part of the supply in the same period, offsetting the impact of some expected demand reduction. Therefore, in the short term, the polysilicon market will continue to maintain a stable and strong trend, mainly with narrow amplitude fluctuations.

On October 29, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 29th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 28, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was stable. The closing price was 777-779 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 797-799 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic products needed to be imported. The fluctuation of external market price had a certain negative impact on domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend was temporarily stable.

On October 28, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States fell to US $55.81/barrel, or US $0.85, while Brent crude oil futures price fell to US $61.57/barrel, or US $0.45, and the number of drilling rigs in the United States dropped sharply. Baker Hughes’ data shows that this week, the number of drilling rigs decreased by 21 to 830, 238 less than 1068 a year ago, and the number of land drilling rigs decreased by 20, a total of 807. The number of drilling rigs in inland waters remained unchanged at 2, and the number of offshore drilling rigs decreased by 1, a total of 21. Crude oil price rose slightly, which had limited cost support impact on downstream petrochemical products, and domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is around 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 28th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 84.5%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 88%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general transaction atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

On October 28, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 28th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of the 600000 ton new plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of the petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of the petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of the aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, the domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 25, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 4 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 777-779 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 797-799 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic PX plant needs to be imported. The fluctuation of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic PX market price, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On October 24, WTI crude oil futures market rose to 56.23 US dollars / barrel, or 0.26 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 61.67 US dollars / barrel, or 0.5 US dollars. The number of us rigs dropped sharply. Baker Hughes’ data shows that this week, the number of drilling rigs decreased by 21 to 830, 238 less than 1068 a year ago, and the number of land drilling rigs decreased by 20, a total of 807. The number of drilling rigs in inland waters remained unchanged at 2, and the number of offshore drilling rigs decreased by 1, a total of 21. Crude oil price rose slightly, which had limited cost support impact on downstream petrochemical products, and domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 25th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 87.5%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 88%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general transaction atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the butanone market remained weak and fell. As of Friday (October 25) of this week, based on the quotations of several sample enterprises, the average price of butanone market was around 8883.33 yuan / ton, down 1.84% compared with October 18.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the butanone market as a whole continued to decline, the offer was loose, and the factory continued to reduce the offer, reducing the price for shipment, and the low price fell below 8600 yuan / ton. South China has a large number of ships this month, the market mentality is not positive, the overall mentality is mainly bearish, many factories and traders offer profits, the shipping performance is average, and the downstream purchasing power is weak. Recently, the market has been cold. At present, the price difference between South China and North China and East China is still large. The mainstream reference price in South China is around 9150 yuan / ton, which is about 650 yuan / ton lower than last week. The mainstream reference price in North China is around 8700 yuan / ton, which is about 700 yuan / ton lower than last week. The mainstream reference price in East China is around 8700 yuan / ton, which is 70 yuan lower than last week. About 0 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the overall stability of upstream raw material liquefied gas (Civil) is slightly reduced this week. At present, the market price of liquefied gas in North China is stable, the mainstream price is around 3850-3900 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal; the market price of liquefied gas in Shandong is down, the mainstream price is around 3800-4100 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal; the market price of liquefied gas in East China is down, and the mainstream price is normal. At about 3700 yuan / ton, the market transaction was normal.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency, it is expected that the butanone market will continue to operate in a narrow and weak range in the next week, which does not exclude the possibility that the market still has a small fluctuation.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin fell on October 23. On October 22, the average ex factory price of grade-I product of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5200 yuan / ton, and on October 23, the average ex factory price of grade-I product of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5133 yuan / ton, with a one-day price drop of 1.28%. On October 23, the paraffin commodity index was 76.43, down 0.99 points from yesterday, down 30.16% from 109.43 (2013-12-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.70% from 63.85, the lowest point on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5000 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton. 。 The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: WTI rose $1.49 per barrel on Wednesday (October 23) at $55.97 in December 2019, and Brent rose $1.47 per barrel at $61.17 in December 2019. China’s SC crude oil futures main contract 1912 rose 2.3 yuan to 444.7 yuan / barrel.

Industry chain: domestic market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 has declined. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and few transactions. Prices of some enterprises have been lowered, and most of them have been quoted steadily. Substantial progress has been made in the US China Economic and trade negotiations, with international oil prices rising. The upstream liquid wax price remained stable, while the liquid ammonia price increased slightly. Downstream enterprises have low buying enthusiasm, the market reaction is flat, and most enterprises purchase on demand.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on October 23, 2019, there were two kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including one with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top two commodities were epichlorohydrin (8.05%) and sulfuric acid (2.44%). There are 23 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top three products were ammonium chloride (- 3.91%), caprolactam (- 2.39%) and mixed xylene (- 1.99%). The average price of this day was – 0.23%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin of business association think that the overall atmosphere of chlorinated paraffin market is weak at present and the rise is weak. The raw material market is dominated by horizontal market, the downstream power is insufficient, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin in the later stage will be mainly stagnant. It is suggested to pay attention to downstream demand and real-time market trends.

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the market price of monoammonium phosphate in China has fallen again. On October 16, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium in China was 2066 yuan / ton, while on October 22, the average ex factory price was 1983 yuan / ton, down 4.03%. On October 22, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 66.39, down 2.23 points from yesterday, 34.16% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and 6.93% higher than the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: in recent years, the domestic market of powdery monoammonium has been flat. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850-2050 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 2000-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of raw sulfur will be stable after the festival. The supply and demand of domestic sulfur market is quiet. The negotiation atmosphere is cold. The industry is waiting for information and guidance. The domestic phosphorus ore market is still running smoothly, and the overall market is almost no fluctuation. Due to regional differences and different production, the price difference is large. Based on several sample areas, the average ex factory price of primary and high-end phosphorus ore is around 420 yuan / ton. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises for monoammonium phosphate is insufficient, and the market situation has not improved.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 5 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on October 22, 2019, among which there is 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top 3 commodities are sulfur (5.05%), ammonium chloride (4.07%) and R22 (1.67%). There are 24 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodity decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were nitric acid (- 8.62%), formaldehyde (37%) (- 4.88%), acetone (- 4.81%). The average price of this day was – 0.42%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association believe that the recent weak market of monoammonium phosphate is weak in autumn, and the industry is pessimistic about the situation of winter storage. It is expected that the market of monoammonium phosphate will continue to move forward in a weak way in the later stage. It is suggested to pay attention to the raw material market and downstream demand.

On October 22, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 22nd, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, the domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 21, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 6 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 761-763 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 781-783 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The decline of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On October 21, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States fell to US $53.31/barrel, or US $0.47, while Brent crude oil futures price fell to US $58.96/barrel, or US $0.46. Measured by total domestic delivery, domestic oil demand in the United States was 20.8 million barrels / day, the highest level in September. 3.2% less than August, but 3.5% more than September 2018. As of September, the total oil demand averaged 20.5 million barrels per day, up 0.3% year-on-year, the highest level since 2007. Saudi Aramco said that the company has recovered its normal crude oil production level, and the crude oil processed in Abqaiq and khurais has reached the export grade. The crude oil price declined slightly, which had limited impact on the cost support of downstream petrochemical products, and the domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry has been in a volatile market, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average price of the offer in East China is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 21st day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 88%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 88%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general trading atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by crude oil price. The market price of PTA in the downstream is slightly lower due to the shock, and it is expected that the market price of PX will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

I. price trend

Take the sulfuric acid rutile titanium dioxide with large volume in domestic market as an example. According to the data in the bulk list of the business agency, the market of titanium dioxide has risen steadily, from 15500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 15833.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.15%.

II. Market analysis

Product: titanium dioxide market is stable and rising. The price of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 14500-16500 yuan / ton, that of anatase titanium dioxide is 12000-12800 yuan / ton, and that of chlorination titanium dioxide is 18500-20000 yuan / ton. After the National Day holiday, some of the market supply is still tight, the inventory of individual manufacturers is low, and the price of titanium dioxide is mainly stable, with a single price.

Industrial chain: the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area is up. The market price of imported titanium ore is high, which to a certain extent supports Panzhihua mining. The price of titanium dioxide rose, and the supply of some downstream titanium dioxide producers was tight. Raw materials and downstream support the price market, high cost of raw ore, shortage of spot goods, and some manufacturers suspend quotation.

III. future forecast

According to the titanium dioxide analyst of the business association, the market price of titanium dioxide is rising steadily, the market price of imported titanium ore is high, and the price of Panzhihua ore is rising. At present, the price of titanium dioxide is slightly rising, and the actual transaction price is still based on a single negotiation.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on October 12, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 7037.8 yuan / ton, and on October 19, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 6962.5 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 1.07%. Pet market fell slightly.

II. Cause analysis

Products: as of September 19, Anyang polyester material factory is 6900 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Sanfangxiang Group Co., Ltd. is 7000 yuan / ton, Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 6900 yuan / ton, Anyang polyester material factory is 6900 yuan / ton, China Resources chemical Holding Co., Ltd. is 7050 yuan / ton, and Tenglong special resin (Xiamen) Co., Ltd. is 6900 yuan / ton.

Industry: on October 18, the rubber and plastic index was 685, down 1 point from yesterday, 35.38% from 1060 (2012-03-14), and 18.92% from 576, the lowest point on December 21, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now) the bulk commodity market is mainly consolidated, and the overall trend of rubber and plastic industry is slightly fluctuating.

III. future forecast

Pet analysts believe that pet prices have fluctuated slightly recently. The main quotation range is 6800-7100 yuan / ton.

On October 16, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On June 16, the price trend of ammonium nitrate in the domestic market was temporarily stable, the operation of the devices of the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was stable, the delivery market of the ammonium nitrate manufacturers was general, the downstream purchased on demand, and affected by the environmental control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stopped production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started construction limited, and the market price trend was temporarily stable. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi Province is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is 2100-2300 yuan / ton, and in Hebei Province is 2300-2500 yuan / ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, but the raw material cost is well supported, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market has declined, and the price of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 2100 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 2000 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer about 2000 yuan / ton, and the price trend declines. The delivery of nitric acid is general. The fall of nitric acid price has a certain negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable for the time being. The market trend of domestic liquid ammonia in the upstream is stable for the time being, and the market transaction is fair. The market price of liquid ammonia is 3200 yuan / ton. In terms of liquid ammonia, it is affected by the rise of upstream cost, but most of the inventory pressure of manufacturers is increased compared with that in the earlier stage, and some of the devices are heavy. Since then, the local supply of ammonia in the region has increased, especially in Shanxi and North China. The supply of most manufacturers is sufficient. The prices of manufacturers in North China are maintained at 3000-3200 yuan / ton, while those in Northwest China are at 2650-2800 yuan / ton. The temporary stability of liquid ammonia market has a certain cost impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of the downstream civil explosive industry has not changed much. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited. The inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, but the market price of raw materials remains high. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is generally stable due to the commodity market. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that the price of upstream raw material nitric acid market remains at a high level in the near future, and the downstream demand is still at a low level, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will fall slightly in the later stage.