I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the market price of n-propanol is still stable as of October 15. At present, the main quotation of domestic n-propanol is around 9400-10400 yuan / ton, and the main quotation of imported n-propanol in Dalian, Taiwan is around 11500-11800 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: after the national day, the market of n-propanol continued to operate stably, with relatively stable cost support. The bulk water price of n-propanol in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai is 9300-9600 yuan / ton. Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. has normal operation of n-propanol plant, and the ex warehouse price of the plant is about 9300-9400 yuan / ton. The foreign quotation of domestic n-propanol operated by Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10500 yuan / ton (including tax), the foreign quotation of domestic n-propanol operated by Shanghai Lianyi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 11600 yuan / ton (including tax), and the foreign quotation of n-propanol imported from Dalian, Taiwan (specification: 165kg) is 11800 yuan / ton. Due to different packaging and profit space of the origin or dealers, the price difference of n-propanol is relatively high. Big.

Industry chain: the market price of upstream product propylene oxide is rising. At present, according to the monitoring data of business association, the average market price of propylene oxide is 10500 yuan / ton, up 550 yuan / ton, or 5.53% from October 1 at the beginning of the month. The market reference price of propylene oxide in East China is 10250 yuan / ton, delivered in cash; the market reference price of propylene oxide in North China is 10100 yuan / ton, delivered in cash.

III. future forecast

According to the prediction of business agency, the market of n-propanol will remain stable in the short term.

On October 13, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, unchanged from yesterday, reaching an all-time high in the cycle, up 56.46% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

On the 14th, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable, domestic ammonium nitrate plant operation was stable, ammonium nitrate factory shipment market was general, downstream purchasing on demand, coupled with environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China was still more shut down, domestic ammonium nitrate factory started limited, the price trend in the field was temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2100-2300 yuan/ton, and in Hebei is 2300-2500 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, but the cost of raw materials is well supported, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market remains stable.

Recently, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market has been volatile. The price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu is 2333.33 yuan per ton. Anhui mainstream manufacturers offer around 2100 yuan per ton. Shandong manufacturers offer about 2100 yuan/ton, the price trend is temporarily stable. Nitric acid shipment is general, the slight drop in nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable; the upstream domestic market for liquid ammonia has fallen back, the market turnover is still acceptable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3190 yuan/ton, the upstream cost of liquid ammonia is lower, and most manufacturers’inventory pressure has increased compared with the previous period, some loading. Restart, partial supply of ammonia increased in the region, especially in Shanxi and North China. Most manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price of ammonium nitrate in North China is maintained at 3000-3200 yuan/ton. The price of ammonium nitrate in Northwest China is 2650-2800 yuan/ton. The decline of liquid ammonia market has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. The Market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. In recent years, the market of the downstream civil explosion industry has not changed much. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited, and ammonium nitrate manufacturers have high stocks. However, the price of raw materials market remains high. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable due to the general trend of the market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market prices maintain high levels, downstream demand is still at a low level, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to fall slightly later.

1. Melamine price trend:

According to the price monitoring of business associations: as of October 12, the mainstream price of domestic melamine was 5700-6000 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with 11, and the market of melamine was temporarily stable, up 1.07% compared with September 12.

II. Market analysis:

Products: The domestic market for melamine was stable on the 12th. Melamine market trading atmosphere is flat, the start rate is at a high level, but the downstream consumption speed follow-up power is insufficient, the new single transaction is not warm, downstream users have a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5800 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5800 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The upstream urea factory price in Shandong Province (10.8-10.12) rose slightly this week, from 1796.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1800.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.19%. Upstream liquid ammonia prices (10.8-10.12) rose slightly, an increase of 0.21%. The demand performance of downstream industries such as sheet metal, paper making and moulding plastics is general.

3. Future market forecast:

Melamine analysts at the business association believe that the slight rise in the price of raw materials upstream has little impact on melamine. Domestic start-up rate is at a high level, but downstream demand is not strong, and the digestibility of melamine supply is limited. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be dominated by weak consolidation operation.

On October 11, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 19.43% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 11th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Unit was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being, due to the fact that the new unit was put into operation at home. The market supply of xylene is normal and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 10, the closing price of P-xylene in Asia dropped by 6 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 778-780 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 798-800 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of P-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is stable.

On October 10, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $53.55 per barrel, an increase of $0.96. Brent crude oil futures rose to $59.10 per barrel, an increase of $0.78. According to Oil & Gas Journal, as of October 9, according to the data of the U.S. Energy Intelligence Agency, the U.S. crude oil stocks (excluding strategic oil reserves) increased by 2.9 million barrels in the week ending October 4. U.S. crude oil stocks are 425.6 million barrels. U.S. crude oil stocks have increased by 4.1 million barrels, crude oil prices have risen slightly, support for downstream petrochemical products is limited, and domestic paraxylene prices are stable. Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA market start-up rate declined, PTA price trend shocks, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5100-5200 yuan/ton, up to 10 days domestic PTA start-up rate of about 87.5%, polyester industry start-up rate of about 90%, due to adequate PTA supply, general trading atmosphere, mainly traders, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, by crude oil prices shocks. The downstream PTA market price will remain low due to the turbulence. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain 6,800 yuan/ton in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of October 10, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 13075 yuan/ton, which rose by 0.38% in the same period last month and fell by 11.26% compared with the same period last year. The overall market is tidied up in a narrow range.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregated MDI market price narrow collation, price fluctuation is not large. The market has been in a “sad” atmosphere since Coase set the guided price. Before the festival, the “pledge” price rises, but after the festival, it falls completely. Despite the fact that some operators believe that both BASF and Wanhua have equipment maintenance plans in the fourth quarter, and that the two factories are in a strong market, coupled with a reduction in imports, supply will be tight. However, at present, the weather in the North has cooled down, especially the outdoor construction projects in Northeast China have been gradually shut down, and the demand has been correspondingly weakened. The downstream traders in Shandong Province are often bottoming out because of today’s market prices, frequent stockpiling, large inventory, and slow consumption due to environmental protection and trade wars. Overall demand has been weak all year round. Supplier factories have fewer accidents, normal start-up and declining prices under pressure.

On the market side, the aggregate MDI market in North China is weakening and tidying up. The atmosphere in the market is still light, and follow-up transactions are scarce. Businessmen talk about low-end shipments and sporadic low prices are heard. At present, the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 12200-12300 yuan/ton, and the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in PM200 refers to 13000-13200 yuan/ton. In East China, the market of aggregated MDI is weak and shocky. Inquiries and inquiries on the market are not enough to buy gas, and the follow-up of transactions is not smooth. Businessmen talk about low-end shipments, and low prices are heard. At present, Shanghai barreled discharging offer refers to 12200-12300 yuan/ton, PM200 barreled discharging offer refers to 13200-13300 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: domestic pure benzene Market declined, external prices rose and fell, the decline of the U. S. external market dragged down domestic selling prices. Sinopec’s listed price fell, crude oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday morning and then fell. Demand prospects in the oil market remained unoptimistic, and oil prices closed down at the end of the day. CFR prices in China have fallen sharply, while domestic market pressures have fallen. However, the port inventory has not increased significantly, which gives strong support to the market. It is tentatively estimated that the short-term pure benzene market range is weak.

Aniline: Domestic aniline Market negotiations are stable, the price of raw material hydrobenzene negotiations has fallen sharply, and the cost of aniline has declined. Aniline negotiations are expected to decline steadily in the near future. The mainstream reference price in Shandong and North China is 7760 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market price in East China is about 7800 yuan/ton.
3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Perspective: Business Cooperatives Aggregate MDI analysts predict that some practitioners in the late market will use equipment maintenance and other news to pull up the market, but under the repeated “hot and cold” speculation, price fluctuation frequency increases, but the fluctuation range is not large. In this market, the holder can only keep shipment as the main factor. Short-term domestic aggregated MDI market price vulnerability collation, there is no lack of room to explore.

On October 9, the fluorite commodity index was 100.58, which was the same as yesterday. It was 21.11% lower than the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and 104.39% higher than the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices fluctuated at a low level, with an average price of 2866.67 yuan/ton as of 9 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants started to operate normally, mines and flotation plants started to operate normally, fluorite supply was sufficient, and hydrofluoric acid prices in the downstream maintained a low level in the near future. For the fluorite market, on-demand purchasing, the situation of fluorite on-site goods was poor, and the price of fluorite market was temporarily stable. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is sufficient, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in weak market prices. As of 9 th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2800 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2600-2900 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-2900 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-3000 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite remains low.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is declining. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 9830 yuan/ton as of the 9th day. The lower market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, and the demand for fluorite is weakening and the price of fluorite is falling. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises has fallen to the level of 1200-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a is declining. At present, the market of R134a has entered the off-season. The downstream demand is relatively weak. The start-up rate of many R134a manufacturers remains low. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined but not increased, and the price affected by the fluorite market is at a low level.

Generally speaking, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is abundant, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may maintain a low trend.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations’big list, the market of aniline was better in September, and the price went up all the way. In August 30th, the price of aniline was 6000 yuan / ton, 6300 yuan / ton, and the price in September 30th was 7600 yuan / ton, 7800 yuan / ton, which rose 23.66% at the end of last month.

II. Analytical Review

1. Raw materials: The listing price of pure benzene on September 30 is 5500-5900 yuan/ton, which is up by 9.14% compared with the end of last month. At the beginning of this month, pure benzene stocks in eastern China fell, and the price of pure benzene rose significantly. Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident on the 16th, crude oil and pure benzene external market soared, driving the domestic market of pure benzene upward. At the end of the month, the impact of the Saudi Arabian incident faded and the price support of pure benzene weakened. In addition, downstream environmental protection inspection, some factories stopped production restrictions, pure benzene just needed insufficient, the market fell.

This month, due to environmental protection inspection of raw material nitric acid, individual enterprises stop production restrictions, the supply of concentrated nitric acid is reduced, and prices continue to rise. And demand improved before the festival, the market stock was positive, multiple positive factors stimulated nitric acid monthly increase of more than 23%, good for downstream aniline.

2, product: 16 and 17 days of this month, the aniline device of the Tiantian ridge is unstable, and the supply of aniline is reduced. Aniline stocks dropped sharply, market supply was tight, aniline rose sharply, and the weekly growth rate was over 10%.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Raw materials: Likon: The recent blue sky defense battle has a strong influence, transportation constraints hinder the recovery of pure benzene market. And near eleven pure benzene just needs to be reduced. Advantages: Port stocks in East China are declining and imports of pure benzene are on the low side.

2. Domestic market: good: Aniline stock is not high at present. Likon: Near eleven, downstream enterprises have reduced their demand for aniline due to environmental parking restrictions.

Considering comprehensively, aniline prices will run steadily in the short term after the festival, focusing on downstream purchasing and raw material trends.

On September 28, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 69.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.07% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 43.72% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has declined, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has declined, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has increased, high-end transactions have been blocked, recent factory inventory has increased, phthalic anhydride market price trend is small. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 7000-7200 yuan/ton, naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 6500-6700 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6900-7100 yuan/ton. Most of the manufacturers’prices in the field are back-adjusted, downstream construction is not high, purchasing on demand is the mainstream, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant runs steadily, and the field is stable. The ample supply of phthalic anhydride in stock, together with the near National Day holidays, the transportation of dangerous chemicals is restricted, and some downstream holidays start, the demand for phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

Recently, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride is 6,900 yuan/ton. Because of the overhaul of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of goods in the field is tight, the price of o-phthalic anhydride keeps high, the import market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area is stable, the recent market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port is good, the Negotiations are based on the recent increase in in in-site maintenance facilities for phthalic anhydride in China. The supply of in-site phthalic anhydride is very tight. Supported by the price of upstream raw material phthalic anhydride, the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is limited. Downstream DOP prices remained volatile, isooctanol prices remained stable, and DOP costs did not change much. DOP price is stable, DOP downstream demand is normal, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market volatility declines, DOP high-end transaction is blocked, DOP market mainstream transaction price 8000-8200 yuan/ton, downstream price trend is volatile, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to fall slightly later.

According to statistics, the market price of ammonium nitrate rose sharply this week. By the end of the week, the domestic price of ammonium nitrate was 2116.67 yuan/ton, which was 4.96% higher than the price of 2016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 3.89% higher than the previous year. Supported by the price of raw material nitric acid, the market price of ammonium nitrate rose sharply.

On the one hand, ammonium nitrate factory equipment parking, supply reduction, supply shortage on the one hand, coupled with the National Day holiday, transportation restrictions, ammonium nitrate market price rise, on the other hand, by the upstream raw material nitric acid price rise, good support, ammonium nitrate market prices go sharply. High, ammonium nitrate manufacturers shipment market has not changed much, downstream on-demand procurement, by the impact of environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China is still more shut down, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start construction is limited, supported by good raw materials, ammonium nitrate prices have risen substantially. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2100-2300 yuan/ton, and in Hebei is 1950-2100 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China has continued to rise substantially. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical quoted 2600 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from last week’s quotation (17 days); Anhui Jinhe quoted 2500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week’s quotation (17 days); Shandong Helitai quoted 2300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week’s quotation (17 days). Anhui Audley quoted 2460 yuan/ton, 410 yuan/ton higher than last week’s (17) quotation; Wenshui County synthetic chemical quotation 2350 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton higher than the 23-day quotation. With the National Day approaching, there are many parking overhauls for manufacturers, tight supply of concentrated nitric acid market, difficulty in picking up goods, better demand for festivals, active market stocks, multiple favorable factors, which have led to a sharp rise in the price of concentrated nitric acid and the price of raw material nitric acid, which is a good support for the ammonium nitrate market.

Upstream domestic liquid ammonia market is stable and small, the current local ammonia supply is tight, and there is no pressure for enterprises to ship goods, but the main price of ammonia producers is stable. The mainstream quotation in Shandong is stable in the market of 2900-3100 yuan/ton liquid ammonia. The market turnover is still acceptable. The average price of liquid ammonia market is 3210 yuan/ton. Most of the liquid ammonia producers have inventory pressure. Generally, the price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region is maintained in the range of 3000-3400 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is in the range of 2500-2800 yuan/ton. The high level of liquid ammonia market has a positive impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has risen sharply.

In recent years, the demand of the downstream civil explosion industry has not improved. The demand for ammonium nitrate is limited, and ammonium nitrate manufacturers have a high stock. However, the price of raw materials market has risen sharply. In addition, near the National Day, some ammonium nitrate manufacturers in the North may be restricted. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market prices have risen sharply, although the downstream demand has not changed much, it is expected that ammonium nitrate market prices will rise due to the support of raw materials in the later period.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the market of Shandong DMF rose this week, with the average price of DMF at the beginning of the week being 4600.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of DMF at the end of the week being 4633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72%. Current prices are down 37.10% from last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: DMF market rose this week. By the end of the weekend, mainstream manufacturers in East China offered 5100-5200 yuan/ton, mainstream manufacturers in Guangdong offered 5300 yuan/ton and mainstream manufacturers in Shandong offered 4800 yuan/ton. Henan Junhua 30,000 tons/year plant parking overhaul has been restarted. The 100,000 tons/year DMF plant in Luxi Chemical Industry of Shandong Province stopped for maintenance on August 14 and restarted in the first ten days of October. Shaanxi Yanxinghua DMF plant with annual output of 100,000 tons/year suddenly stopped for overhaul, and the restart time is unknown. DMF inventory declined, the major DMF manufacturers have a positive mentality, have increased prices, double-positive, DMF prices rose.

Industry chain: The price of methanol in the upstream has risen, which is influenced by the recent surge in crude oil, methanol futures and the expectation of methanol to olefin production. In line with the downstream stockpiling before National Day, the atmosphere of methanol market delivery is positive, the mainland enterprises shipped smoothly, and the focus of market negotiation is constantly rising. At the beginning of the week, the price was 2098.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2190.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.39%. The start-up rate of domestic pulp plant was increased by the influence of the peak season, and the purchase was positive, and the price of DMF increased.

3. Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream methanol market has been affected by inventory reduction. The downstream slurry enterprises just need to be upgraded due to the peak season of Jinshi Yinshi market. Therefore, DMF product analysts of business associations believe that short-term DMF market consolidation is mainly upward.