1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products fell. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong was 1385.25 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1357.75 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 1.99% and 10.28% higher than that of last year. On September 24, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 107.16, flat with yesterday, down 31.13% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), and 60.20% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The market of petroleum coke is greatly affected by the coming of the double festival, and the price of petroleum coke rises and falls. In terms of low sulfur coke, due to the limited resources of low sulfur coke and better downstream demand, the price of low sulfur coke is still good. In terms of medium and high sulfur coke, the downward risk is relatively large, because the trend of electrolytic aluminum is obvious.

Upstream: the US WTI crude oil futures market price rose, and the settlement price of main contracts rose by US $0.38 to US $40.31/barrel. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts rising by $0.20 to $42.46/barrel. Oil prices rose slightly, mainly supported by signs of tight US crude oil supply.

Downstream: in recent years, the general trend of glass spot market is general, and the delivery speed of production enterprises has not changed much, mainly to increase the funds for delivery and withdrawal, and the market prices of some manufacturers have been adjusted sporadically. At present, the orders of processing enterprises are fair, the purchase of glass is mainly based on rigid demand, and the market transaction is general. At the same time, most of the production lines for ignition and resumption in some areas also play a normal capacity, increasing the supply capacity of the local and surrounding areas. Generally speaking, there is little change in the inventory of traders and production enterprises. In terms of carbon, the recent price drop in the raw material market is good for carbon formation, but the downstream electrolytic aluminum continues to decline, which is a blow to the mentality of the industry. It is expected that the carbon price will be under pressure in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 37th week of 2020 (9.14-9.18), among which there are 2 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the total commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities of increase are WTI crude oil (9.84%), Brent crude oil (8.09%) and MTBE (3.61%). There were two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis. The top two products were LPG (- 1.88%) and fuel oil (- 1.36%). This week, the average rise and fall was 1.85%.

Business agency petroleum coke analysts believe: the current decline in the price of petroleum coke, the price of weak operation, manufacturers before the festival more stable shipment, inventory control. It is expected that the current trend of Petroleum Coke will continue before the festival, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market fell slightly in the first half of this week, and stabilized in the second half. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3560 yuan / ton, down 1.93% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices fell slightly this week. Port inventory stopped falling and rebounded. As of the end of this week, the East China region was about 127000 tons, with an increase of 17000 tons compared with last week. The pressure to go to the warehouse has rebounded, and the price is slightly weak in the near future. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand improved, isomer xylene demand slightly improved, market transactions improved, overall supply and demand situation tended to be stable. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3560 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia at the OPEC + meeting called for a “cheating country” to cut production, boosting market sentiment, making oil prices rise continuously, leading to a “dramatic reversal” in the crude oil market, the largest weekly increase since June. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $3.445/barrel to close at $42.49/barrel, up 8.82% from last week.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4600 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price was about 544 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 562 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will usher in an adjustment trend. In terms of PTA market, the market price began to stabilize this week. The domestic PTA spot market price was about 3504 yuan / ton, and the external price was about 443 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will stabilize and rebound next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / ton, and the external price of o-benzene is about 540 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 558 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will stabilize and rebound next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data, and the implementation of OPEC + production reduction. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the impact of US dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, xylene prices in the domestic market are expected to stabilize next week.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fell first and then rose in September, and the overall zinc price remained stable. As of September 21, the average price of zinc was 20493.33 yuan / ton, down 0.47% from 20590.00 yuan / ton on September 1.

Domestic zinc production

Date current month output (10000 tons) cumulative output (10000 tons)

August 2020 53.9-410.9

July 2020: 52.4-356.9

June 2020 52 304.8

May 2020 51.4 252.7

April 2020 51.7-201.3

March 2020 48.9 149.5

February 2020 – 104

December 2019 60.7-623.6

November 2019 59.4 569.2

October 2019 54.8 512.3

September 2019 54.8-458.3

August 2019 52.8 403.4

July 2019 51.2 343.8

June 2019 51.3 281.5

May 2019 48.226.9

April 2019 46.5-176.5

March 2019 45.3-130.6

February 2019 – 85.1

It can be seen from the table that the monthly output of zinc ingots in domestic zinc market has increased on a month on month basis, and the cumulative output has increased. Zinc market supply growth, zinc market downward pressure increased. In the first ten days of September, the price of zinc fluctuated and fell.

Zinc inventory in Shanghai market

Time this week inventory increase / decrease

Subtotal futures

9.1-9.6 74325 26776 -685 -2930

9.7-9.13 58453 20774 -15872 -6002

9.14-9.20 62495 19072 4042 -1702

It can be seen from the table that the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures exchange market decreased significantly in September, and the futures inventory decreased significantly. With the advent of “golden nine silver decade”, domestic zinc market demand increased and zinc market inventory decreased. The rising power of zinc market increased, and the price of zinc recovered and rose in mid September.

Analysis, review and Prospect

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, the price of zinc first rose and then fell in September. Domestic zinc ingot output increased from January to August, the supply of zinc market increased, and the downward pressure of zinc price increased. In the first ten days of September, zinc price fluctuated and fell; in September, the spot zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market fell first and then rose, and futures inventory fell sharply. With the advent of the golden age, the demand of zinc market is rising, the output of zinc market is rising, and the supply of zinc market is increasing. The overall supply and demand of zinc market is basically stable. It is expected that the future zinc market will be stable.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 18, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 6883.33 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic DMF market price was high and firm, and the market went up. Compared with the same period last month, the price rose by 8.12% and 1.72% compared with the beginning of September.

This week, the DMF market showed an upward trend. The downstream demand increased, the shipment was smooth, the replenishment was positive, the center of gravity was firm, and the high level was moved up. As of September 18, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 6850 yuan / T, Zhangqiu Riyue 6800 yuan / T, Hualu Hengsheng 7000 yuan / T, Shaanxi Xinghua 6200 yuan / T, East China 7400-7600 yuan / T, and South China 7800-8000 yuan / T.

The upstream methanol just needs to purchase, the current inventory is not high, the enterprise mentality is supported by a certain degree, the current shipment is smooth, and the transaction order is limited.

The chemical index on September 17 was 726 points, up 4 points compared with yesterday, 28.54% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 21.40% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, the DMF market is mainly stable, digesting the early gains, and there is limited room for further growth. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (September 16): 1875.00 yuan / ton

On September 16, the mixed price of potassium chloride in Qinghai was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on September 14. At present, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream purchasing is mainly required, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

Recently, the price of potassium chloride in Qinghai area may fluctuate slightly, with the quotation of 1850-1900 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on September 11, the average price of domestic LNG was 2430 yuan / ton, up 0.43% compared with the beginning of the week, 1.94% lower than the beginning of the month, 4.45% month on month, and 21.42% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price trend of domestic liquefied natural gas is relatively strong, and some regions have made a small increase. Recently, the market has been relatively stable. Some liquid factories’ shipment situation has improved, the pressure has been reduced, and the liquid price has increased slightly. Among them, Shanxi, Sichuan, Ningxia and other places have adjusted their prices more actively, while other regions have remained stable and wait-and-see market. In terms of the receiving station, the performance was stable with little fluctuation. At present, the downstream demand is stable, there is no large volume, and the market trading is not warm. With the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises, the market supply is more and more abundant, the situation of supply exceeding demand is still the same, and there is little room for upward market price. Although there are price fluctuations in some regions, the overall market is gradually stabilizing. It is expected that consolidation will be the main trend in the short term.

In terms of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of this week is above 60%, and the maintenance season is coming to the end. With the resumption of production and sales of Hubei Huanggang and Inner Mongolia Paisi liquid plants, the overall market operating rate will continue to increase. Recently, the arrival of the ship is more intensive, and the market supply is still abundant. China imported 9.362 million tons of natural gas in August, up 2.015 million tons month on month (MOM), up 27.4%, according to the General Administration of customs. In terms of demand, the demand for vehicles has recovered, the sales volume of gas stations has increased, the performance of industrial gas consumption is average, the overall market demand has not changed significantly, and the market trend still needs time to verify.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of September 11, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 2430 yuan / ton, that of Inner Mongolia was around 2390 yuan / ton, that of Shaanxi was 2470 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi was 2590 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang was 2330 yuan / ton, and that of Ningxia was 2370 yuan / ton.

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from September 11 to September 7

Inner Mongolia Shitai 550000 cubic meters / day 2350 yuan / ton 2350 yuan / ton

Star energy 1 million cubic meters / day 2380 yuan / ton 2380 yuan / ton

Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day 2380 yuan / ton 2380 yuan / ton

Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 2350 yuan / ton 2320 yuan / ton 30 yuan

Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2420 yuan / ton: 2440 yuan / ton – 20 yuan

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2930 yuan / ton: 2900 yuan / ton

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2380 yuan / ton 2360 yuan / ton 20 yuan

Qinshui Xinao – 2650 yuan / ton 2600 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day 2600 yuan / ton 2600 yuan / ton

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million cubic meters / day 1900 yuan / ton 1750 yuan / ton 150 yuan

Downstream methanol, domestic methanol market continued to rise, the rise was slower than last week. At the beginning of the week, affected by the strong trend of futures, the quotation of methanol market in various regions also went up to varying degrees, among which the rise in Shandong and Shanxi was obvious. At the end of the week, with the crude oil plummeting, the chemical products prices generally fell, and the high quotation of methanol market dropped. Some production enterprises temporarily shut down their devices, and the enterprise shipment was fair, and the manufacturer’s offer was firm. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

The liquid ammonia market is still in the period of market adjustment since the market experienced an upward market in mid and early August. Basically, supply and demand are mainly balanced. In addition, some plants are still in the maintenance period, and it is expected that the ammonia volume will remain moderate in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will remain strong in the near future. However, with the recovery of large plants in Shandong Province, the gradual accumulation of ammonia quantity is not ruled out, and the possibility of price decline in mid September is not ruled out.

Urea, the market fluctuated slightly, fell to. The upstream liquid ammonia dropped slightly recently, and the cost support was general. However, domestic demand is weak, agricultural demand has not yet started, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. At present, the price in Shandong is about 1660-1720 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

Dichloromethane: at present, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province is on the wait-and-see stage after the rise. In the early stage, the price of liquid chlorine of raw materials is high. In addition, some traders began to prepare goods before the festival. The price of dichloromethane is rising. Recently, the enthusiasm of downstream market to receive orders has declined, and the market transaction situation has become weak. The owner is mainly on the wait-and-see manner. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2250-2280 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 3000 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2400 yuan / ton. Although the purchase intention of downstream market is weak, the price of dichloromethane will remain relatively strong, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cost side.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts from the business agency believe that: in September, downstream demand has improved, some liquid plants have a good shipping atmosphere, and prices have risen slightly. However, the preliminary maintenance enterprises are coming back to production one after another. The market supply is increasing, and there is little room for the liquid price to rise. The market as a whole is gradually stabilizing. It is expected that consolidation will be the main trend in the short term, with small fluctuations in some regions.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 11, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 6766.67 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic DMF market has been running stably. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced, and the downstream inventory is low and replenished on demand. The negotiation atmosphere is dull.

As of September 11, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 6500 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu Riyue 6800 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 7000 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Xinghua 6200 yuan / ton, East China 6900-7000 yuan / ton, South China 7200-7300 yuan / ton.

The upstream methanol just needs to be purchased, crude oil goes up, the cost price is firm, the current shipment is smooth, and the transaction order is limited.

The chemical index on September 10 was 713 points, up 3 points compared with yesterday, 29.82% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 19.23% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, DMF market is mainly stable, and the range of price fluctuation is limited. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

In the first week of September, dimethyl ether market again ushered in an upward trend. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market on September 1 was 2210.00 yuan / ton, and that on September 7 was 2270.00 yuan / ton, up 2.71% during the period, down 4.08% compared with August 1.

Regional, specification, date and mainstream price

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0%, 2370 yuan / ton on September 7th

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0%, 2520 yuan / ton on September 7

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan area: ≥ 99.0% September 7 2240-2355 yuan / ton

In August, the rebound of dimethyl ether was blocked for many times, and the market “fell more and more bravely”. In the first week of September, a new round of rebound was ushered in, and the trend showed signs of recovery. The good news this time mainly comes from the cost of methanol. As the raw material market price rises sharply, the market mentality is boosted. Under the pressure of high cost, the manufacturers have strong mentality and have no intention of falling. This rise, Henan as the main production area, due to the market supply is sufficient, but the terminal demand is stable, there is no obvious change, the rise is slightly weaker. And Hebei and Shandong increased more significantly. Take Hebei Jichun as an example, since September 1, the manufacturer has raised the ex factory price for several consecutive days. From September 1 to 7, the factory price rose from 2350 yuan / ton to 2520 yuan / ton, and increased by 270 yuan / ton within 7 days, which is more obvious.

Henan Province, the main production area, rose narrowly in the early stage, but it increased significantly on September 7. At present, most of the upstream inventory in Henan market is in the middle level. In the downstream buying and rising mentality, the enthusiasm of entering the market has been improved, and the market transaction atmosphere is good. Hebei and Shandong upstream mentality is relatively strong, shipping atmosphere is mild.

In terms of cost, the domestic methanol market experienced a sharp rise in one day, and then continued to rise on the 7th. Some manufacturers increased the ex factory quotation by about 30-50 yuan / ton. The quotation of methanol market in various regions has also increased to varying degrees, among which Shandong and Shanxi regions have obvious upward trend. The main factors of this week’s price rise are the positive futures driven, as well as the favorable impact of the recovery of downstream demand. In the short term, the positive factors will still remain for a period of time, traders are full of bullish mentality. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

The civil LPG market has entered September. Although it has entered the traditional sales peak season, it takes time for the terminal demand to improve, and there is no obvious change, and the consumption is still slow. Moreover, the decline of international crude oil has depressed the market mentality, and the lower reaches have insufficient confidence in the future market. They are more cautious and wait-and-see, and their enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. The market transaction atmosphere is not good, manufacturers are hindered in shipping, and the inventory is increasing. Forced to lower prices to stimulate downstream market entry.

At present, the international crude oil continues to decline, the focus of the civil gas market in Shandong Province has shifted downward, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, the market mentality is negative, or the price rise is restrained. However, the rising trend of methanol cost remains, and the market is still likely to rise as the downstream starts to prepare goods before the festival. And at present, under the support of traditional peak season, the market has been boosted. The rebound is dominated by favorable factors. In the future, the DME market may continue to rise in the short term, or the range may be narrowed.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

Epichlorohydrin market rose this week. As of September 4, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10633.33 yuan / ton, up 2.57% compared with the beginning of the week, and 10.76% higher than that of August 4, according to the large list data of business associations. This week, the price of raw material propylene is rising, the cost support is rising, and the spot supply is tight in the market. There is a strong atmosphere of pulling up in the market. The sellers hold firm offers, and the low-cost sources of goods in the market are reduced. Small orders in the downstream just need to be replenished. So be cautious and wait-and-see.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 10500 yuan / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-09-04

Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. 10600 yuan / ton national standard 99.9-2020-09-04

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. 10600 yuan / ton national standard 99.9-2020-09-04

Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd. $10500 / T, excellent product; 99.9% Min: September 3, 2020

Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. 11200 yuan / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-09-03

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 10200 yuan / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-09-02

Upstream propylene, as of September 4, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise slightly. According to the price chart of the business agency, the price of propylene broke through the cyclical fluctuation range at the beginning of last month, and began to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the market fluctuation was small. However, since September 1, the price of propylene has continued to rise on the whole line, and the upward range is more and more large. Up to now, the total price of propylene is about 300 yuan / ton. The transaction volume in the market is between 7180 yuan / ton and 7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7200 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory without pressure.

Downstream epoxy resin: on September 4, the growth trend of downstream epoxy resin was still the same, the cost support was strengthened, the focus of market negotiation was on the rise, and low-cost goods were hard to find, and the downstream small orders just needed to be followed up.

3、 Future forecast

Epichlorohydrin analysts of the business agency believe that the recent rise in the price of propylene raw materials, combined with the tight spot supply in the market, has obvious sentiment of reluctant to sell and waiting to rise. Small orders in the downstream just need to be replenished. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be mainly higher in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance for the specific trend.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of acrylic acid is going strong. As of September 4, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 7533.33 yuan / ton, up 0.67% compared with the beginning of the week and 6.35% higher than that on August 4, according to the large list data of business agency. This week, the downstream inquiry increased, and the market atmosphere improved. With the continuous rise of raw material propylene market price, the cost continued to rise, and the overlapping trading became increasingly active, the transaction center of acrylic acid market moved up steadily.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acrylic acid of some enterprises in recent years (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd.; 7000 yuan / T; industry standard: common acid; grade: superior product: September 4, 2020

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. 6700 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: September 4, 2020

Aite (Shandong) new material Co., Ltd. $6600 / T, industry standard: Pu acid; grade: superior product: September 3, 2020

Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. 6600 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: September 3, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 7000 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: September 02, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd.? 9600 yuan / T refined acid; content: 99.7%; 2020-09-02

Upstream propylene, as of September 3, the propylene market in Shandong Province rose sharply. According to the price chart of the business agency, the price of propylene broke through the cyclical fluctuation range at the beginning of last month, and began to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the market fluctuation was small. However, since September 1, the price of propylene has continued to rise on the whole line, and the upward range is more and more large. Today, the price of propylene continues to rise by about 100 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is between 7150 yuan / ton and 7400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7150 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory without pressure.

3、 Future forecast

The acrylic acid analysts of the business agency believe that the price of raw material propylene has risen recently, and the cost is under pressure. The market has entered the peak season of “gold, silver and ten”, and gas consumption has gradually increased. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable and better in the short term.