Commodity Name: Lithium Carbonate

Latest Price: Industrial Class: 61800 yuan/ton, Battery Class: 69400 yuan/ton

Main points of analysis: Since August, the overall market price of lithium carbonate has continued to decline. Battery-grade lithium carbonate is affected by the poor demand of power market. The price has dropped obviously. The downstream is mainly in need of purchase, and the willingness to stock up is not obvious. The demand for industrial lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but the increase in supply leads to greater price fluctuations.

Future market forecast: At present, the market supply of lithium carbonate products is relatively sufficient, and it is expected that the pressure of future supply exceeding demand is still in the future. It is feared that it will be difficult to have greater support for price.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market has been rising recently. As of August 6, the price of butadiene was 9645 yuan/ton, up 14.51% annually and down 25.17% year-on-year, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic butadiene prices continue to rise, Sinopec’s supply price continues to adjust to the high level of 10,000 yuan, a small amount of goods in Northeast China have been increased by a wide range of prices, and the shortage of spot resources in East China has boosted the market to a high level. Private factories in Shandong have increased their ex-factory prices to 10,500 yuan/ton, and high-quality products in the market have been delivered to the price reference of 10,600-10,700 yuan/ton; spot resources in East China are limited, and some high-price goods in North China have flowed in and supplemented, and they have been sent to the offer of about 11,000 yuan/ton for negotiation.

On the market side, the butadiene market in Shandong continues the upward trend of high level. The Northeast supply has been greatly increased in price. Private manufacturers’export prices have risen in the region. The delivery price of high-grade products refers to about 10600-10700 yuan/ton. Sporadic high prices have also been heard and discussed. Butadiene market quotations in East China continue to rise. Spot resources in the region are limited. Some high-priced goods from North China are flowing in and supplemented. The high-grade middlemen deliver their quotations at about 11,000 yuan/ton. Although some downstream inquiries are not intentional, there is no low-priced goods available in the region.

Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 # long-term parking; 1 # and 2 # total 120,000 tons/year plant normal operation; Zhenhai refinery and chemical 165,000 tons/year plant normal operation, mutual supply is the main, a small amount of export; Liaotong Petrochemical 120,000 tons/year butadiene plant normal operation, bidding for export trading range of 10,180-10,210 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, the export transaction price is 9820-9840 yuan/ton. The 100,000-ton/year oxidative dehydrogenation plant in Silbang, Jiangsu, stopped on July 29.

3. Future Market Forecast

Inventory lows sustain a continuous rise in supplier prices, and high spot prices continue to boost the market. Short-term follow-up is limited and the trend of Tianjiao futures is weak, which has an impact on the mentality of some businessmen. However, there is no pressure on the supply side of butadiene, and the market is difficult to find low-price sources. Business analysts predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market will continue to be high. They suggest that attention should be paid to the prices of manufacturers and transaction situation.

Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone fell slightly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 8433 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8333 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a drop of 1.19% in the week, which was 30.56% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market continued to decline slightly this week, pure benzene market prices fell, cost support was unstable, and the downstream caprolactam market spot weakness fell, purchasing cyclohexanone profit was thin, chemical fiber orders were less in the week, solvent Market on demand purchasing, on-the-spot bullish sentiment on the future market was strong, real orders were general. Luxi spot does not export in the week, but the downstream demand is general, factory shipments are blocked, and the external quotation is lowered. As of Thursday, the mainstream shipment price of cyclohexanone factory is around 8,100 yuan/ton, and it is now remitted to the factory, which is about 500 yuan/ton lower than last week.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, this week, the price of pure benzene weak shock. Earlier in the week, the end of the month to fill the gap to drive up the offer of pure benzene, East China reported a high of 5280 yuan per ton in the week, but the purchase was relatively cautious. Although the price of pure benzene in the United States has fallen in recent months, the price in the distant months has remained unchanged, and the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea is still open, which supports the price of pure benzene in Korea. The price fluctuation of Shandong Geotechnical Refining has softened in the past week. The downstream profit is small, and the price of hydrobenzene is low. Buyers are resistant to high-priced pure benzene. Pure benzene stocks accumulated in the refinery, and continued to reduce the price of shipments. Caprolactam: This week, the domestic caprolactam liquid spot market is weak. Recently, the market is mainly affected by the demand side. The terminal demand is short of good stimulation. In addition, due to high temperature and environmental protection problems, the downstream market demand for PA6 chips is weakening, prices are falling, the delivery of aggregate factories is not smooth, and the enthusiasm of raw material procurement is declining. Although Sinopec’s contract price has increased, Sinopec’s listed caprolactam price increased 200 yuan/ton to 12800 yuan/ton in August. However, the support of the spot market is limited, the pressure of factory spot delivery is gradually increasing, and the price center of gravity is slightly lower.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the spot supply of cyclohexanone plant fluctuates little, while the demand for downstream caprolactam may decrease, and the solvent market just needs to be purchased. Considering cost pressures, analysts of Cyclohexanone, a business firm, predict that the short-term market for Cyclohexanone will weaken by a limited margin. In the long run, new production capacity may be released in August, showing a pattern of supply exceeding demand.

I. Market Review

According to statistics, this week’s domestic fluorite market price trend is temporarily stable, the weekend price is 3112.5 yuan/ton, which is equal to 3112.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 15.69% year-on-year, and the recent fluorite price trend is stable.

II. Market Analysis

Domestic fluorite prices have been stable for a while this week, and the start-up rate of fluorite plants has not changed much, but the downstream demand is general. The spot supply of fluorite is normal. By the end of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2900-3100 yuan/ton. The mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 3000-3200 yuan/ton. 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 97 yuan/ton. The price of powder is 2900-3100 yuan/ton, and 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 3000-3300 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable. Fluorite farm started to maintain normal levels, recent downstream demand is normal, affected by many factors, fluorite price trend is stable.

Industry chain: The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite fell this week. The factory price of hydrofluoric acid dropped by 5.23% to 11610 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend. The downstream market price of hydrofluoric acid is a negative influence of the fluorite market, and the price of fluorite is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, downstream refrigerant product unit operating rate is not ideal, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, refrigerant market trading market is cold, R22 refrigerant unit surface operating situation is not high, R22 market unit operating rate is low, main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is 17500-18000 yuan. / Between tons, but the production enterprises do not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market is low, and the shipping market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a has slightly declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has not changed much, the market demand for refrigerants has weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the general downstream start-up situation, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, and the price of fluorite market is stable.

Industry: This week, the upstream fluorite industry started construction in general, hydrofluoric acid prices declined, the spot supply of fluorite products was normal, and the fluorite market price trend was temporarily stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the domestic fluorite plant started to work normally in the near future, the market price of the downstream hydrofluoric acid industry fell, and the refrigeration industry in the downstream was in general. Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst from business associations, believed that the manufacturers in the fluorite field reflected the normal supply of goods, and expected that the price would decline slightly later, or the price would be 3050 yuan/ton approx.

Commodity Index: Polyaluminium chloride Commodity Index on July 31 was 104.50, which was the same as yesterday. It was 3.34% lower than the peak of 108.11 points in the cycle (2019-04-24), and 3.57% higher than the low of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: On July 1, the mainstream price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 1950 yuan/ton, and on July 31, the market price of this product was stable at 1933.33 yuan/ton. In July, it fell first and then rebounded slightly, with an overall decrease of 2.52%. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the current domestic market quotation range of polyaluminium chloride is 1700-1900 yuan/ton for solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (>28%) and 330-410 yuan/ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10-12%)

Industry chain: Recent upstream raw material calcium powder of polyaluminium chloride is affected by environmental protection shutdown factors, the market anticipates that the subsequent price rise of polyaluminium chloride will be caused by the reduction of calcium powder output; different manufacturers have different stock volumes and prices, and some distributors have slightly increased prices; hydrochloric acid prices began to rise substantially on 26 th of this month. Italian news agency monitoring data show that the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid market was 123.33 yuan/ton on 31 this month, which has a great impact on the follow-up price of polyaluminium chloride.

Industry: Recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province received the “stop-production notice”. The notice requests: According to the analysis of environmental pollution situation and future polluted weather situation in the whole city, the city attack and fortification office requests all deep treatment enterprises to stop production and control before acceptance, and dispatch or acceptance according to fortification. It can be returned to production. Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown (see below):

Future forecast: the demand of polyaluminium chloride downstream is stable in the near future, the production cost of the production enterprises with insufficient supply of calcium powder in the upstream is rising, and this month the production enterprises of polyaluminium chloride are required to stop production in accordance with the requirements of environmental protection management. The relevant manufacturers say that, according to the inventory situation in the factory, the price of products will increase frequency during the period of shutdown. The market generally predicts that the market price of related products will be in a tight supply situation in the later period, and that there will be a two-month shutdown period and the price of products will rise significantly. The products involved are polyacrylamide, polyaluminium chloride, molecular sieve, brown corundum, etc.

Price Trend

The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5370 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Within the week, the price of domestic ethanol market dropped by 0.19%, which was 1.55% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the alcohol market has gone up and down differently. The Northeast Alcohol Market is in a weak position. Large factories in Northeast Jilin have maintenance plans in the near future. Enterprises are actively shipping in the early stage. It is reported that enterprises have obvious willingness to pull up in the near future, and the downstream purchasing willingness is general. Large factories in Heilongjiang have parked and small factories have positive shipment mentality. Market transaction prices continue to burst out at low prices, while prices in East China have fallen. Now stable, downstream more consumption of low-cost supply; some enterprises in Henan are still unstable, supported by good supply side prices remain stable; Northeast China arrives at port, local supply is limited, Mashan plant in Guangxi region continues to stop, it is reported that short-term driving is possible, downstream demand is light, market protection. Stay steady.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the price difference between corn auctioned grain source and new grain is limited, the competitive advantage of auctioned grain declines, the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase is not strong, and the demand is weak. With the continuous entry of grain for auction in the near future, the enthusiasm of trade enterprises to go out of the warehouse has increased. Some corn deep processing enterprises will be repaired soon in summer. In addition, the demand for breeding is currently in a relatively stable and slightly weak state. We anticipate that in the context of the continued entry of grain auctions into the market, the corn market will continue to maintain a weak stage of adjustment, and the probability will be greater until the end of the auction. However, from the overall trend, the corn market is expected to be bullish after the middle and late August. Ethyl acetate: The domestic market for ethyl acetate is strong this week. After a series of early rises, downstream and traders digest pre-order and inventory mainly, the market turnover is light, the market maintains a high firm. Despite the insufficient turnover of new orders in the market, the mainstream manufacturers still mainly deliver early orders, and there is no short-term accumulation of supply, maintaining a high and stable price offer. After mid-month, some export orders were delivered one after another. However, after the expansion of Ethyl Acetate plant in Europe, the quantity of domestic export of Ethyl Acetate decreased. Although near the end of the month, the current export support is not good enough. Domestic downstream digestion speed is limited, short-term domestic single market turnover is weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

A large factory in Northeast Jilin area will enter the overhaul immediately. The stock of enterprises is not high and the willingness to pull up is obvious. It is expected that the short-term market will go up slightly. Small factories in Heilongjiang area will ship goods actively. However, under the pull of Jilin’s supply, it is expected that the short-term market price will remain stable or adjust slightly. New low-price goods in Northeast China will arrive. After Hong Kong, it is expected that the price of local supply in East China will be weak; the start-up load of enterprises in Henan is not high; furthermore, large factories in Sichuan will enter the inspection and repair immediately, which will benefit Henan market, and the market price in Henan will remain firm; the entry price of foreign supply in South China will remain firm in the short term, and local enterprises in South China will be underfunded by raw materials supply. Supported by this, the enterprises are reluctant to reduce the price of sales, and the short-term market in South China is expected to remain stable. Ethanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term trend of regionalization of the domestic ethanol market is obvious.

Price trends:

According to the data monitoring of business associations, this week Sinopec Neighbouring Benzene executed the quotation stably. As of July 27, the executed contract price of Sinopec o-xylene was 5900.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of o-xylene at the beginning of the week at 5900.00 yuan/ton, and 13.71% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product Analysis

Neighbouring benzene prices fell this week, while European neighbouring benzene prices fell by about $15 per ton. Outside quotation fell, import cost of Phenyls fell, port inventory was low and stable, inventory consumption was slow, demand for Phenyls was general, the market for Phenyls in the future was negative. Fuhaichuang’s o-xylene plant with capacity of 240,000 tons/year was delayed to August, and the start-up rate of o-xylene plant was low. Neighbouring benzene prices in the future fall under greater pressure.

Factor Analysis of Industrial Chain

This week, mixed xylene market volatility rose, which is good for o-benzene. This week, mixed xylene rose by 0.18%, with limited growth and insufficient momentum. The overall mixed xylene price is not good enough for future phenyl, and the pressure of decline of phenyl still exists. Mixed xylene trading is general, the future market of mixed xylene is not enough momentum to rise, the overall market for o-benzene is negative.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fell slightly this week, the overall market was negative. This week, phthalic anhydride market shocks fell, the start rate maintained, downstream market fell on the neighbouring benzol Market bearish. Downward pressure on the price of o-phenyl increased.

industry

Plasticizers fell sharply this week, by 4.66%, with limited downstream demand. The downturn of plasticizer market has increased the pressure on the market of phenyl, and the downturn risk of phenyl in the future market has increased.

3. Future market forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of o-xylene data from business associations, on the supply side, the price of o-xylene in the external market fell sharply this week, while the price of imported o-xylene fell; the price of raw materials mixed xylene rose but at a very low rate, which had little impact on the cost of o-xylene, and the overall cost of o-xylene was temporarily stable; on the demand side, the downstream market of phthalic an Plasticizer market declined, overall downstream customer purchasing enthusiasm declined, demand for Phenyls declined, future market Phenyls market was negative, downward pressure increased. Generally speaking, demand declines, the market of Phenyls is negative. On the supply side, the market of Phenyls has no obvious good news. The downside risk of Phenyls in the future increases, and the downward pressure on Phenyls increases. It is expected that the overall market of Phenyls will remain weak and stable, but the downside risk will increase.

On July 25, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 25th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of the operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily because of the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX units in Asia is about 80%. On July 24, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 3 US dollars per ton. The closing price was 817-819 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 836-838 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On July 24, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 55.88 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.89 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 63.18 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.65 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, which lost some cost support for downstream petrochemical products prices. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporary. Steady. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined 25 days, the average price of East China is around 5700-5800 yuan/ton, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 89%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 85%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market prices slightly lower, it is expected that PX market prices will be later. Maintain shock.

Today, the price of ethylene oxide has been adjusted, with the exception of northeast China, the price of ethylene oxide has been increased by 200 yuan/ton. At present, the prices in East and Northeast China are 7600 yuan/ton, 7 900 yuan/ton in Central and South China and 7 700 yuan/ton in North China.

EO prices have been raised today, with a nationwide increase of 200 yuan. Many enterprises have concentrated on overhaul and failed to implement the plan of reproduction, which has tightened the resources of ethylene oxide in the market. Ethylene is expected to rise, or bring cost support to the ethylene oxide market. According to the current price of ethylene, the profit is estimated to be about 700 yuan. The stable operation of downstream gives a good support to ethylene oxide. EO/EG co-production is mainly based on the production of ethylene oxide. Influenced by the buying-up-not-buying-down mentality, the price of Polycarboxylic Water Reducer monomer also increased slightly, and the purchasing mentality increased.

The implementation of today’s general inflation, short-term stability, follow-up needs to keep up with factory news.

On July 23, the fluorite commodity index was 110.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.30% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 124.61% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the average domestic fluorite price is 3150 yuan/ton as of 23 days. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant in the field started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is rising recently. For the fluorite market, the price trend of fluorite market is on demand. Rise. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of 23 days, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained high.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream fluorite has been slightly lower. As of 22 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12050 yuan/ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite has been weakened and the price of fluorite has oscillated. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the on-site transaction price does not change very much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is slightly lower. In addition, the supply of fluorite market is normal, and the fluorite price trend is temporarily stable. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the fluorite market price may be slightly lower.