According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from March 11th to 15th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 17000 yuan/ton to 16800 yuan/ton, with a 1.18% decrease in price during the cycle, a 1.61% increase compared to the previous period, and a 0.12% year-on-year decrease. The domestic aggregated MDI market prices have fallen, with limited follow-up on the demand side and a less than expected purchasing atmosphere. The downstream end has limited resilience.

The supply side is affected by favorable factors such as reduced supply from production enterprises.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: domestic pure benzene prices are relatively high. The domestic production of pure benzene has limited changes, and the downstream demand for pick-up is stable. However, the number of imported goods on board has increased, and port inventories have slightly accumulated. As of March 15th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8508.83 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Domestic aniline prices first fell and then rose, with high inventory and pressure from aniline factories. Downstream demand is weak, leading to a decline in aniline prices; In the later stage, the price of pure benzene as a raw material increased, and cost support strengthened. After a tentative slight increase in the aniline factory, shipments from the aniline factory were smooth, inventory pressure decreased, and the price of aniline continued to rise. The cost impact of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream demand has not recovered as expected, and there is still room for lower demand. Currently, small and medium-sized factories have poor purchasing enthusiasm, and their acceptance of the current aggregated MDI price is still average, with limited overall transmission. The impact of short-term aggregate MDI demand is mixed.

In the future market forecast, as the supply of goods stabilizes and the quantity of goods is abundant, downstream follow-up will continue to be slow, and buying will be weak. Business Society’s MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and consolidating.

This week, the domestic first-class sponge titanium market operated steadily. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic market price of first-class sponge titanium ranges from 53000 to 55000 yuan/ton. As of March 14th, the benchmark price of domestic first-class sponge titanium is 54000.00 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of the week, it remained unchanged.

The upstream raw material magnesium market price has decreased this week. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of March 14th, the benchmark price of magnesium in Business Society was 17900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.45% compared to the beginning of this week (18733.33 yuan/ton). The cost pressure on sponge titanium production enterprises has been reduced, but inventory is insufficient, and prices will continue to remain strong.

On the downstream side, the demand for titanium materials and the military industry market has increased, and sponge titanium is in a stable demand situation.

Late stage forecast: According to the analysis of the sponge titanium analyst at Business Society, the pressure on raw material costs has slowed down, downstream demand is stable, and sponge titanium production enterprises are in a pattern of both supply and demand. Due to factors such as insufficient inventory, it is expected that the sponge titanium market price will remain strong.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has slightly declined recently (3.1-3.12). On March 12th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from 7420 yuan/ton on the 1st.

Narrow range fluctuations in international crude oil prices provide some support for the cost of mixed xylene

Recently (3.1-3.12), on the one hand, the geopolitical situation has been relatively calm, but market concerns about demand still exist; On the other hand, OPEC+agreed earlier this month to extend its voluntary production reduction until the second quarter. The international crude oil market has recently experienced narrow fluctuations, which still provides some support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of March 11th, WTI04 contract settlement is $77.93 per barrel; Brent 05 contract settlement is $82.21 per barrel. The continued slight increase in the price of Asian mixed xylene provides support for the domestic market, with prices of Asian isomeric grade xylene ranging from $937 to $938 per ton as of March 11th.

Mixed xylene port inventory continues to remain high, and supply pressure remains on the supply side

The continued high supply of mixed xylene in port inventory has put pressure on mixed xylene. It is understood that as of March 8th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 108000 tons.

Stable demand for xylene production and support for mixed xylene production

The domestic supply of xylene is stable, and the domestic PX operating rate remains above 80%. However, there are still some units undergoing maintenance, and there is sufficient spot supply. This week, the international crude oil price range fluctuated, and PX external prices have decreased. As of the 7th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 977-979 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1002-1004 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Stable market for phthalic anhydride, low starting point, stable but weak support for mixed xylene demand

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is very abundant, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor. In addition, the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, which has affected the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride.

After the holiday, the domestic mixed blending market recovered slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continued to be weakly supported

After the holiday, the recovery of the domestic mixed blending market was slow, and the demand for mixed xylene mixed blending weakened. As of March 7th, the construction of refineries nationwide was around 7.3.

Market forecast: In the short term, international crude oil prices will fluctuate, with some support for mixed xylene costs. The downstream polyester industry will have strong support, but the support for phthalic anhydride and mixed blending industries will be weak. In addition, domestic port inventories of mixed xylene will continue to be high. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly increased this week. The sulfuric acid price has risen from 241.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 246.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.07%, and the weekend price has dropped by 8.23% year-on-year.

Upstream market fluctuates slightly, while downstream procurement enthusiasm increases

From the supply side, mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers saw a slight increase in prices this week, with low production and average inventory levels.

From the upstream market perspective, the sulfur market in the upstream has slightly declined, with sulfur prices dropping from 1033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1023.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.97%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.35% over the weekend. At present, the price of sulfur at the port continues to decline, which has a negative impact on the spot market. There is a clear bearish sentiment on the market. In order to stimulate shipments, some refineries have lowered their sulfur prices.

From the perspective of downstream market conditions, the market price of monoammonium phosphate in the downstream market has slightly increased, rising from 3120 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3136.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.53%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.81% over the weekend. At present, the supply of ammonium phosphate is relatively low, the market supply is tight, and the spring plowing fertilizer season is approaching, and the demand side needs to be released.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to late March, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream sulfur market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has slightly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the product trend is on the rise. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from March 1st to 8th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 17050 yuan/ton to 17000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.29% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 2.82%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.59%. The domestic aggregated MDI market is weak and declining, with limited trading atmosphere and strong trading sentiment among traders. Overall, the intention to negotiate is maintained, and market prices are falling, with relatively insufficient support.

The supply side is affected by favorable factors such as reduced supply from production enterprises.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Domestic pure benzene prices fluctuate and fall after opening up high. Imported goods on board remain at a low level, with an increase in downstream maintenance facilities and a decrease in demand. Port inventory has slightly accumulated. As of March 8th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyishe is 8262.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic price of aniline first fell and then stabilized, while the price of raw material pure benzene fell, weakening cost support. In the early stage, due to the high pressure from the aniline factory and poor factory shipments, the price of aniline decreased. In the later stage, downstream demand improved but fell short of expectations, and the price of aniline stabilized horizontally. As of March 8th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 11000.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of MDI aggregation is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and overall consumption power has improved. However, the current high price buying is still average, and further improvement and follow-up are needed. Waiting for the pipeline and sheet industry to start one after another, the market is slowly pushing forward. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is temporarily affected by favorable factors.

In the future market forecast, as the supply of goods stabilizes and the quantity of goods is abundant, downstream follow-up will continue to be slow, and buying will be weak. Business Society’s MDI analyst predicts that the domestic MDI market consolidation will be the main focus.

Since 2024, the domestic market for trichloromethane has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 5th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2666 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.82% from the beginning of the year’s 2070 yuan/ton.

The significant increase in the market for trichloromethane is mainly reflected in two stages before and after the Lunar New Year: mid to late January before the Spring Festival, and downstream is the peak season for winter storage and stocking after the holiday. There is a wave of purchases of trichloromethane, which drives up the price of trichloromethane; Since late February after the holiday, with the gradual increase in downstream refrigerant production and the low inventory of trichloromethane, the price of trichloromethane has risen again.

Since 2024, the domestic methane chloride production has fluctuated narrowly, with around 70% of domestic methane chloride production as of the end of February.

Since 2024, the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have fluctuated and risen, supported by the cost of trichloromethane. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 5th, the spot price of methanol was 2691 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.86% from 2450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; In January, the price of liquid chlorine tankers in Shandong region ranged from 100 to 300 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the price dropped to 1 yuan/ton. As of March 5th, the price of liquid chlorine tankers in Shandong region was 400 yuan/ton, which is generally at a high level compared to the previous period.

The refrigerant market has rapidly rebounded after the holiday, with a significant increase in the production volume of air conditioning enterprises in March. It is expected that the production volume will be around 20-22 million units. In addition, the increase in export demand orders will provide strong support for the refrigerant market. In addition, due to the increase in HFC prices and another reduction in HCFC quotas next year, the R22 market will see a surge. After the holiday, the prices of refrigerants have risen and production has increased, providing strong support for demand in the face of trichloromethane.

Business Society methane chloride data analysts believe that the rising raw material prices have provided strong support for the cost of trichloromethane; The downstream refrigerant industry is still in the peak season of production, and the demand for trichloromethane will continue to support in the short term. Overall, the trichloromethane market will continue to maintain a high and strong trend in the short term.

Last week (2.27-3.5), ethyl acrylate experienced a downward trend. The ethylene raw material market is stable and declining, with weak cost support. It is difficult for factories to make concessions, and the terminal still maintains a wait-and-see attitude. The negotiation for acrylic acid is about 5950 yuan/ton, with a starting load of 70.73%. As of March 5th, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9505 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.89% compared to last Monday (10100 yuan/ton).

At present, the new transaction volume of ethyl acrylate market is relatively low, and terminal demand continues to be weak. Most ethyl acrylate enterprises produce according to orders, while downstream enterprises mostly purchase according to demand. The market has a high wait-and-see attitude, and the trading atmosphere is relatively cold. The raw material market situation is average, and actual orders need to be followed up. We need to pay attention to the market demand sentiment in the future. Analysts from Business Society predict that the market quotation for ethyl acrylate will remain stable next week, with a price range of 9400-9600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the auction price of crude benzene during the period from February 26 to March 4, 2024 has decreased by 5.62%, from 7201.25 yuan/ton last week to 6796.25 yuan/ton this week.

In terms of crude oil: Currently, there is still a long short game in the crude oil market, and in the short term, crude oil will still be affected by the geopolitical situation, and the price will remain relatively rigid. On March 1st, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $79.97 per barrel, up $1.71 or 2.2%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $83.55 per barrel, up $1.64 or 2.0%.

On March 1, 2024, Sinopec lowered the listed price of pure benzene by 200 yuan/ton, and currently implements a price of 8350 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8300 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8350 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8003 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8300 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8350 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On February 26th, the price of pure benzene was 8717 yuan/ton, and on Friday (March 1st), the price of pure benzene was 8483 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.68% from last week and an increase of 19.42% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, pure benzene and crude oil rose first and then fell after the holiday. In this cycle, confidence in the spot market declined due to downstream maintenance news, and the domestic pure benzene market continued to decline. The latest quotation for hydrogenated benzene this week fell to 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from last week. The external market of pure benzene continues to decline, and Sinopec has lowered its listed price of pure benzene three times this week. As of now, it has executed a price reduction of 8350 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 500 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the fourth round of decline in the coke market after the holiday has quickly landed, with a cumulative decrease of 400-440 yuan/ton. Coking companies have generally incurred losses, and currently, active production restriction enterprises continue to increase, with operating rates dropping to around 68%. Crude benzene production has significantly declined, and supply is tight. In terms of demand, the operating rate of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises has not changed much, and currently there is not much change in demand. The positive supply and demand side still exists, but news of reduced production and maintenance of some downstream units of hydrogenated benzene and pure benzene has been reported, resulting in poor performance of terminal demand and dragging down market sentiment. Overall, the decline in downstream demand is dragging down market sentiment, and it is expected that the pure benzene industry chain will continue to operate weakly in the short term. However, there will be positive factors emerging from the macro perspective in the near future, and it is expected that the market will continue to have limited downward space, with stable, moderate, and weak operations as the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On February 26th, the price of pure benzene was 8717 yuan/ton, and on Friday (March 1st), the price of pure benzene was 8483 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.68% from last week and an increase of 19.42% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 8550 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions have dropped by 300 yuan/ton simultaneously)

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Night trading of pure benzene was discussed at 8350-8400 yuan/ton, and it is expected that pure benzene in East China will fluctuate and consolidate in the morning.

Crude oil: Market concerns about demand prospects continue, and there has been no significant improvement in the global economy, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract 78.26 fell 0.28 US dollars per barrel, or 0.36%; ICE oil futures 04 contract 83.62 fell 0.06 US dollars per barrel, or 0.07%. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2404, rose 3.6 to 609.1 yuan/barrel, and fell 3.2 to 605.9 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, the price of pure benzene was weakly consolidated, and the trading atmosphere was average. The market atmosphere is stagnant, and both buyers and sellers have a clear wait-and-see attitude. Shandong has been experiencing consecutive days of poor shipments, putting pressure on some refineries’ inventory and causing prices to continue to decline. After the price drop, the follow-up of buying gas is average, with a focus on just needs.

Summary of Precious Metal Prices in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29, 2024, the spot market price of gold was 480.84 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.25% from the pre holiday (February 8) gold spot market price of 482.04 yuan/gram. However, this week, the gold price began to slightly recover, rising by 0.36% in the past four days.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of silver in the market on February 29, 2024 was 5861.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.11% compared to the average price of silver in the market before the holiday (February 8), which was 5797 yuan/kg. However, silver prices continued to decline this week, falling by 0.66% in the past four days.

From November 2022 to early February 2023, precious metal prices significantly increased. From March to the end of April, due to the impact of the US banking crisis, precious metal prices once again entered a period of skyrocketing. Silver prices began to fall in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices hit a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices became stronger. In mid to late September, precious metal prices were affected by news from the Federal Reserve, leading to a high level correction. In October, due to geopolitical factors, the risk aversion sentiment rose and continued to rise. In early November, the high range was weak and fluctuated horizontally. At the end of the month, precious metal prices resumed, and silver saw a stronger monthly increase than gold. Silver prices slightly declined in December, while gold prices remained relatively strong. From January to February 2024, precious metal gold and silver fluctuated horizontally at high levels.

Macro data

On the overseas US side, the US GDP data for the fourth quarter unexpectedly revised downwards, and the US economy fell short of expectations. Market expectations for the magnitude of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut continue to weaken.

Federal Reserve Director Bauman stated that the time point for starting interest rate cuts has not yet been reached; The latest inflation data indicates a slowdown in inflation progress; Strong economic activity and consumer spending, coupled with a tight labor market; If inflation stagnates or reverses, still willing to raise policy interest rates; Premature reduction of policy interest rates may lead to the need for future interest rate hikes; If inflation continues to reach the 2% target, the ultimate interest rate cut will be appropriate.

Kansas Federal Reserve Chairman Jeffrey Schmid stated that there is no need to adjust policy stance in advance. In terms of interest rate cuts, patience should be maintained to continue observing the economy’s response to previous tightening policies and to seek conclusive evidence that inflation is being controlled.

In addition, the draft G20 Finance Ministers’ Communique shows that G20 finance ministers believe that the possibility of a soft landing for the global economy is increasing, and that a faster than expected decline in inflation is one of the risks.

The market still maintains the expectation of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates for the first time in June, but the Federal Reserve’s swap rate shows that the Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024.

On the domestic side, the central bank has lowered the benchmark loan interest rate LPR again after eight months. The People’s Bank of China authorizes the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that on February 20, 2024, the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) is 3.45% for 1-year LPR and 3.95% for 5-year and above LPR. The former remained unchanged compared to the previous period, while the latter decreased by 25 basis points compared to the previous period. Lowering the medium – and long-term LPR benchmark interest rate will help reduce the pressure on residents to purchase properties and repay existing housing loans, which is conducive to further promoting investment and consumption.

Future Market Forecast

The dominant tone of precious metals remains unchanged. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle is gradually coming to an end and entering a rate cut cycle, which logically favors interest free assets such as precious metals. Although the expectation of immediate interest rate cuts in the short term has weakened, the direction of the cycle remains unchanged. Short term precious metals continue to be affected by inflation data, and long-term support from expected interest rate cuts is still expected. It is expected that in the short term, the price of precious metals will remain high and there is a high probability of horizontal fluctuations.