According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated and fell in September, with a drop of nearly 7%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 843 yuan/ton. On the 29th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 773 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.3%.

Loose supply, hydrogen peroxide market oscillates and falls in August

At the beginning of September, there was an increase in terminal rigid demand, and manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide increased, resulting in an increase in benefits. The hydrogen peroxide market saw an increase, with an overall quotation of 800-900 yuan/ton. On September 9th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 750-800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 750 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 40 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 900 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Fujian region is 1100 yuan/ton, and the market is stable.

In the middle of the month, the demand for terminal procurement remained stable, with negative pressure and a weak decline in the hydrogen peroxide market. The overall quotation was 700-900 yuan/ton. On September 13th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 700-800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 750 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 900 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Fujian region is 1100 yuan/ton, which remains stable.

After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the rigid demand of the terminal fell back, and the amount of hydrogen peroxide purchased by the manufacturer declined. The bad news depressed the market of hydrogen peroxide, and the overall quotation was 700-800 yuan/ton. On September 19th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region was around 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, while the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region was 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 880 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Fujian region is 1100 yuan/ton, and the market is stable.

At the end of the month, terminal demand remained sluggish, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline, with the average market price falling below 700 yuan/ton and the market running weakly. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is around 750-800 yuan/ton, with weak prices. In Hebei region, the average price of hydrogen peroxide is 680 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 40 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 860 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 40 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hangzhou area is 1100 yuan/ton, and the market remains stable.

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that after the National Day holiday, the rigid demand for terminal hydrogen peroxide will increase, and the market situation is expected to improve in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 23rd to 27th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 7600 yuan/ton to 7457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 32.73%. The domestic BDO market is weak and deadlocked, with light spot trading. Recently, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has significantly declined, with some support from the supply side. The downstream demand of the terminal is generally followed up, with mixed long and short factors and fluctuations in the market’s center of gravity.

On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry has decreased, and the market supply of goods has decreased.. The favorable supply side is gradually weakening.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has seen an upward adjustment, with the price of raw material blue charcoal rising. The cost side support is strengthening, and production enterprises are shipping smoothly, but the supply of goods is tight. Raw material methanol: The methanol market has stopped falling. As of 10:00 am on September 27th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2464 yuan/ton. The narrow rise in raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol has strengthened the positive impact of BDO cost factors.

On the demand side, the main downstream PTMEG spandex industry chain is operating at a high level, with stable digestion of raw materials. However, spandex has been losing money for a long time, and the bargaining sentiment for entering the market continues. Downstream PBT and PBAT production has increased, but there has been no significant change in the GBL-NMP industry chain and polyurethane industry load. The main focus is on digesting inventory of raw materials or following up on essential contracts. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, multiple sets of equipment are under maintenance and load reduction, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has dropped to below 50%. The supply side has certain favorable conditions, and the supply side has a stable market mentality. The weak performance of terminal demand has led to weak pre holiday stocking intentions in downstream industries. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly experience narrow consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 13th to September 20th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 13550 yuan/ton to 13512.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.28% during the period. This cycle coincides with the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, and the butadiene market first fell and then rose. The demand for pre holiday and downstream pre holiday stocking was basically released, and the procurement pace slowed down, resulting in a slight decline in pre holiday prices. After the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, affected by the rise in the synthetic rubber market, the mentality of the spot market has improved, and the holders of goods have a strong mentality of raising prices. The mainstream domestic prices have risen, and as the National Day holiday approaches, there is a demand for replenishing inventory downstream. The mentality of the spot market is generally strong, and the overall price is stable, medium, and strong near the weekend. As of September 20th, the self pickup price of butadiene in the East China region is between 13400-13500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

Cost wise: The international oil price market first fell and then rose. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.95 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.88 per barrel. The crude oil market has started to decline in this cycle, and this news is negative for international oil prices due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Global crude oil demand fell short of expectations, coupled with the end of the peak oil season in the United States, dragging down the crude oil market and causing a decline in crude oil market prices. The rise in crude oil market prices in the later stage of this cycle, coupled with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, has boosted the crude oil market. Looking ahead, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains stable at 13600 yuan/ton. The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance on July 12th and restarted in September; The 200000 ton unit of Fujian United and Zhejiang Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance in early September and is expected to restart in the latter half of the year. The 56000 ton plant of Qilu Petrochemical was shut down on July 3rd, and the restart time is yet to be determined. Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and is expected to restart in October. The comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much recently, and it has remained stable with a slight increase this week. The overall supply of butadiene is relatively stable.

On the demand side: The downstream synthetic rubber market continued to rebound slightly this week, and downstream inquiries are currently cautious. The Shanghai market for butadiene rubber is consolidating at a high level. The futures price of butadiene rubber fluctuated at a high level, with downstream demand inquiries and high prices of butadiene. The merchant offers were relatively firm. As of September 20th, the mainstream reports for Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding are 16200-16500 yuan/ton; The market situation of styrene butadiene rubber in Shanghai is narrow, with small upstream and downstream inquiries being the main focus. The ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber remains firm, and merchant offers are adjusted upwards. As of September 20th, the mainstream price of styrene butadiene 1502 in Qilu, Jihua, Yangzi, and Fushun is around 16550-16700 yuan/ton.

On Thursday (September 19th), the closing price of butadiene in foreign markets was temporarily stable: among them, the FOB price in South Korea was reported at 1540-1550 US dollars/ton, unchanged; China CFR reported $1565-1575/ton, unchanged; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1105-1115/ton, unchanged; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1060-1070 euros/ton, unchanged.

Market forecast: The overall market atmosphere is strong in the near future, with strong quotes from holders and difficulty in finding low-priced goods in the market. On the demand side, downstream companies are currently maintaining on-demand procurement. As the holiday approaches, there is a demand for pre holiday replenishment in the downstream market. The strengthening of the choir rubber market has led to an improvement in market atmosphere. Overall, there are still good news in the butadiene market, and it is expected that the short-term trend will be mainly stable, moderate, and strong, with a focus on pre holiday stocking.

Today, the market price of coking coal remains stable. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of September 18th, the price index of Shengyi Society’s coking coal was 1757.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday.

Traders’ quotations remain stable, downstream customers are more cautious, and demand based procurement is the main focus. The purchasing atmosphere is not positive.

Many coal mining sites in Shanxi maintain normal production, while some areas have reduced production due to underground working face issues. However, overall, the supply side remains stable. There are signs of improvement in the demand side coke market, with market prices remaining stable but slightly strong.

According to analysts from Shengyi Society, it is expected that the market price of coking coal will remain stable in the later stage, and attention still needs to be paid to the supply and demand situation and building materials transactions in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic polyester filament decreased significantly in early September. The price of raw materials has collapsed, and the price of polyester filament continues to decline. Currently, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) at a price of 7000-7300 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at a price of 8500-8900 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at a price of 7500-7800 yuan/ton.

In early September, OPEC lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in its monthly report, offsetting potential supply risks from hurricanes in the Gulf region, and international oil prices fell to their lowest point in 33 months. On the 13th, NYMEX crude oil futures 10 contract 68.65 fell 0.32 US dollars per barrel or 0.46%; ICE Brent Oil Futures 11 contract fell $0.36 per barrel or 0.50% to 71.61.

In terms of PTA, prices have declined significantly. As of September 13th, the average spot price of PTA in East China was 4792 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 600 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. International crude oil prices have experienced a wide decline, and PTA cost support has collapsed. In addition, the company’s operating rate remains high, but downstream demand is insufficient, and PTA still faces pressure to accumulate inventory. Under the combination of multiple negative factors, the PTA market continues to weaken.

The traditional peak season has arrived, and for the future market of polyester filament, basic demand and essential needs still exist. Downstream and end customers have cautious expectations for the future, and bearish sentiment has eased, but the wait-and-see attitude is obvious. Polyester manufacturers trade price for quantity, while downstream procurement of raw materials maintains essential demand operations.

Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that it will be difficult to replicate the hot situation in the first half of the year in the future, but the existence of rigid demand will lead to stable and fluctuating prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market recently (9.1-9.9) fell first and then rose, with a slight overall increase. As of September 9th, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 15232 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from 15146 yuan/ton on September 1st, with a low point of 14773 yuan/ton during the cycle. On the one hand, raw material prices have slightly increased, and on the other hand, downstream tire production has remained stable, supporting the demand for natural rubber. Natural rubber prices have slightly increased due to cost and demand support.

Recently, the weather in Thailand and Vietnam’s production areas has been poor, and some areas in Yunnan Province have been affected by seasonal leaf fall disease, which has led to a certain degree of obstruction in the supply of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad, resulting in a slight increase in the price of natural rubber raw materials. As of September 9th, the price of Thai glue is 69.50 baht/kg, which is higher than the price of 67.20 baht/kg on August 30th; As of September 9th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 14100 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the price of 14000 yuan/ton on August 30th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of September 1, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 455200 tons, continuing to decline slightly.

With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has maintained stable production, facing the urgent demand support of the natural rubber market. As of September 6th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are high; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, in the short term, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience strong fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 2nd to 6th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 17300 yuan/ton to 17866 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.28% during the period and a year-on-year increase of 4.28%. The domestic aggregated MDI market saw a wide rise during the week, with tight supply on site and suppliers reluctant to sell. Downstream demand also entered the market, resulting in tight prices for aggregated MDI goods.

On the supply side, the 400000 ton MDI plant of Wanhua Europe resumed operation on September 3, while the 1.1 million ton MDI plant of Wanhua Ningbo has not yet resumed operation and is in a parked state. BASF’s facility in Belgium, Dow’s facility in Germany, and Covestro’s facilities in Spain and Germany are all operating at low load.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has fluctuated and risen. As of September 6th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8534 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is experiencing a slight increase. As of September 6th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10675 yuan/ton. The overall cost of aggregated MDI has not changed significantly.

On the demand side, the demand remains stable and follows up. Recently, the buying momentum has gradually increased, and there have been many inquiries, resulting in stable actual transactions.

According to future forecasts, it is reported that due to a significant increase in export demand and slower than expected equipment recovery, a large northern manufacturer’s MDI distribution channel has sold out all planned sources of goods in the first ten days of September. Recently, the MDI market has remained tight, and it is expected that the MDI market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 12000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 11750/ton, a decrease of 2.08% in price.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have been weak and falling this month, with some manufacturers remaining stable and market demand falling short of expectations. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton, and downstream shipments are mainly based on orders, with a focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The activated carbon market lacks favorable support, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

On August 30th, the average market price in East China was 263510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 262500-264500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 263500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

The Shanghai Futures and Tin Futures experienced a consolidation in the early trading range, with a slight increase in the near to far month basis difference today; The market saw a slight increase during the second trading session. At the close of the day, the Shanghai Wuxi 2410 main contract closed up 0.19%.

Refineries’ willingness to hold prices has loosened, and some shipments have remained stable. From the current market perspective, due to the traditional off-season for consumption and the still high market prices, the demand in the terminal industry is still suppressed. In the short term, we will continue to observe and wait, and the number of orders received is not large.

In terms of trading today, I heard that small brands are offering a discount of around 200 yuan/ton for September, with a discount of around 200 yuan/ton for Yunzi Tou and a discount of around 500 yuan/ton for September. Yunxi is offering a discount of around 500 yuan/ton for September.

Recently (8.15~8.28), the market for butadiene rubber has rebounded. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 28, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 15040 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.72% from 14500 yuan/ton on August 15. The price of raw material butadiene has risen slightly at a high level; Shunding rubber production has increased; Downstream tire production has slightly increased. The supply price of butadiene rubber has been gradually raised recently, and as of August 28th, the ex factory price of butadiene rubber for PetroChina Northeast Sales Company is 15000 yuan/ton.

Recently (8.15~8.28), the price of butadiene continued to rise slightly, and the cost center of butadiene rubber slightly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the price of butadiene was 12656 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.86% from 12425 yuan/ton on August 15th.

Recently (8.15~8.28), some of the preliminary maintenance equipment of domestic butadiene rubber plants has been restarted, and the overall production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased.

On the demand side: With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has maintained a stable and positive trend, and the production of all steel tires has rebounded compared to the previous period. The demand is facing the urgent support of the butadiene rubber market. As of August 23rd, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.8%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will slightly increase, and the cost center of butadiene rubber will slightly rise; Shunding rubber production has slightly increased, with an expected increase in supply in the later stage; Recently, downstream tire companies have seen a slight rebound in production, which provides some support for Shunding Rubber. Overall, the Shunding Rubber market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations at high levels in the short term.