Analysis: This week (11.25-29), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong continued to be sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 2.22%. The main reason for the loose supply performance is that the early maintenance equipment has gradually resumed, the manufacturer’s operating rate has increased, and coupled with the increase in the manufacturer’s urea to ammonia conversion volume, the supply has significantly increased. The increase in ammonia volume has put pressure on the price of liquid ammonia. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-150 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2650-2800 yuan/ton.

Prediction: As winter approaches and fertilizer procurement is off-season, downstream operating rates will significantly decrease, industrial demand will follow suit, and supply will be sufficient. In the later stage, supply pressure may be partially alleviated. On the one hand, operating rates will decline with lower prices. In addition, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other areas may put pressure on transportation, and local supply may be scarce. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, but local localization may bring about price fluctuations.

This week, the epoxy propane market hit bottom and rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8505 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.31% compared to the beginning of this week (8617.5 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: From November to December at the end of the year, maintenance will be concentrated in the East China region. The 400000 tons/year HPPO unit in the Lianyungang region will be shut down for maintenance on November 11th, with an estimated 45 days. The 270000 tons/year PO/SM unit in Zhejiang Petrochemical may also be scheduled for maintenance in mid November, with only the 200000 tons/year PO/SM unit in Shenghong operating normally. The market supply is tight, and the epoxy propane market is rising in price.

Raw material side: The price of liquid chloropropene on the raw material side fluctuates, and the cost side of epoxy propane enterprises is under high pressure. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6825.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: Insufficient follow-up on downstream procurement, sluggish actual market transactions, and a focus on essential procurement, cautious observation.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the market supply is tight, downstream procurement follow-up is insufficient, and a wait-and-see attitude is strong. Demand based procurement is the main focus, and it is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The price of plasticizer DOP first rose and then fell in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the DOP price was 9176.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.93% compared to the DOP price of 9551.25 yuan/ton on November 14th; Compared to November 1st, the DOP price of 9101.25 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with an increase of 0.82%. The equipment of isooctanol enterprises stopped short, and the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. The cost of plasticizers increased, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises remained stable, with sufficient supply of plasticizers. The downstream PVC off-season is approaching, and the demand for plasticizers is falling, causing the price of plasticizer DOP to rise first and then fall.

Downstream demand declines

Downstream PVC product enterprises are gradually experiencing a decline in production, and as we enter November, the traditional off-season in the market, downstream PVC production is expected to decrease. As the weather in the north gradually turns cold, demand is weak; The downstream market is declining, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

The cost of raw materials first increased and then decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the price of isooctanol was 9300 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.78% compared to the price of 9766.67 yuan/ton on November 14th; Compared to November 1st, the price of isooctanol at 9033.33 yuan/ton first increased and then decreased, with a rise of 2.95%. In mid November, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises experienced a short shutdown, resulting in a decrease in isooctanol supply and a fluctuating rise in isooctanol prices. During the off-season of the market, the demand support for isooctanol is insufficient, and the supply of isooctanol is weakened. The demand is average, and the price of isooctanol first rises and then falls.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; In terms of demand, the off-season is approaching, and downstream production and inventory are expected to decrease, leading to a decline in demand for plasticizers. In the future, the prices of raw materials will fluctuate and fall, the downward pressure of isooctanol will increase, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; The off-season is approaching, and demand expectations are decreasing, resulting in cost reduction and weak demand. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market remained stable this week. As of November 24th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6260 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price on November 18th.

In terms of supply, the operating rate of maleic anhydride remained stable this week, while Wanhua began to increase its burden. The resumption time of production for the Qingdao plant has not yet been determined; This week, the prices of the main factories for maleic anhydride have increased, while dealer quotations remain stable. The market is cautious in chasing higher prices, and new orders with urgent needs are mainly being followed up. As of November 24th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5500 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has risen this week, while the n-butane market is weak. As of November 24th, the price in Shandong is around 5150 yuan/ton.

Downstream: The unsaturated resin market remained stable this week, with downstream essential purchases being the main focus. There is limited support for unsaturated resin, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; In the early stage, the ex factory price of maleic anhydride increased, and the dealer price slightly followed suit. Currently, downstream buyers are cautious about chasing higher prices, and first-time purchases are the main focus. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 18th to 22nd, the domestic ethanol price remained at 5520 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 18.52%. The domestic ethanol market is experiencing a weak decline, with some previously shut down maintenance facilities resuming production and the operating load gradually increasing, resulting in an increase in spot supply; The prices of raw corn production areas are fluctuating, but the demand side support is flat, with accompanying replenishment being the main trend, and the ethanol market price is weak and stagnant.

In terms of cost, domestic corn prices have fluctuated and stabilized. As the weather gradually turns colder in production areas, the quality of new grain is gradually recovering, and farmers’ reluctance to sell is becoming stronger. Traders’ purchase prices have stabilized after a slight increase. The impact of ethanol cost is mixed.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable with small fluctuations. The Fukang Fourth Line, Heilongjiang Shenglong, and Dongfeng Hualiang facilities have resumed production, and the operating load is gradually increasing. Some areas may see an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

Demand side, demand side Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; There is not much change in the production of ethyl acetate. The impact of short-term ethanol demand is mostly stable.

In the future, it is predicted that the supply side spot supply will rise by a narrow margin, the demand side Baijiu consumption will not change much, and the overall production and sales will be slightly flat. The ethanol analysts of the business community predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly operate weakly and stably.

Ethylene glycol prices fall in November

The price of ethylene glycol fell in November. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of November 19th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4583.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from the average price of 4630 yuan/ton on November 1st.

On November 19, 2024, the spot operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was between 4570-4590 yuan/ton. The basis of the ethylene glycol spot contract at the port remained stable during the day, with a slight increase. In the morning session, the basis price of the spot contract for this week was+39 to+42, in the afternoon session it was+40 to+42, and in the lower session of November, the basis price was+42 to+44.

On November 19th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4230-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On November 18, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $535/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $548/ton.

The weak performance of ethylene glycol prices in November is mainly due to the following two factors. Firstly, there is an expectation of a rebound in port inventory; Secondly, there is an expectation of an increase in the domestic ethylene glycol production rate.

The expectation of a rebound in port inventory remains high

The explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol at the port is still relatively low, but there is an expectation of an increase in recent arrivals. Last week, the total amount of goods received at the main port was about 119000 tons, with concentrated arrivals and a slight increase in inventory. Next week, the total planned arrival at the main port is 157000 tons, with 20000 tons at other ports; As of November 18, 2024, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in major ports in East China was 575300 tons, up from 525400 tons on October 4, with a cumulative inventory of 49900 tons. This week, it is expected that there will be a large amount of ethylene glycol arriving at the port, and there is still an expectation of a rebound in port inventory.

Domestic supply rebounds

On the supply side, due to the impact of price recovery factors in the early stage, the total operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol began to recover, and the operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in production.

Demand side: The downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations recently, with no improvement seen in the short term.

Future expectations

The previous surge in ethylene glycol prices was mainly due to favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, coupled with low port supply; In addition, the resonance of rising prices in the polyester sector has caused the price of ethylene glycol to climb to a high level for the year.

Recently, international crude oil prices have weakened and cost support has been weak. Coupled with the concentration of ports, inventory data has shown a short-term upward trend, and ethylene glycol prices have begun to fall.

The future price variables of ethylene glycol mainly depend on overseas supply and cost support, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate weakly in the short term.

This week (11.9-11.18), dichloromethane continued to rise, reaching a new high for the year. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 17th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 3180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 8.35%, a 20% increase from the beginning of the month, and a 32.36% increase from the beginning of the year. Today, there are signs of a decline in the market.

Dichloromethane continues to rise, with reduced production load on the supply side and increased raw material prices on the cost side, resulting in firm quotes from manufacturers. At present, the market trading sentiment is weak, and traders are under great pressure to ship. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and there are signs of a decline in ex factory prices today. As of November 18th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 3130-3170 yuan/ton.

On the supply side: Within the week, the main manufacturers have reduced their operations to 20% and now maintain 50%. Supply is tight and manufacturers have no inventory pressure. The manufacturer has resumed production due to scheduled maintenance on the 17th, and the rise in dichloromethane has been hindered.

In terms of raw materials: The rise in raw materials is favorable for dichloromethane, while the methanol market is slightly sluggish. Supply pressure is still present, and the upward drive is weak. As of November 18th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2510 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.18% from the beginning of the month. The liquid chlorine market in Shandong continues to rise, but with a narrow increase in operating rates, supply will increase.

In terms of demand: Dichloromethane is widely used, and it is often purchased as needed and restocked at low prices. The refrigerant market continues to have good production and sales, and refrigerant prices are running steadily. R32 maintains a tight supply situation, with factories showing reluctance to sell and controlling orders, resulting in continued high refrigerant prices in the future.

Business analysts believe that the maintenance of enterprise equipment fluctuates narrowly, the driving force of raw material prices is weak, and the demand side urgently needs to purchase. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate in the short term.

This week, the epoxy chloropropane market has maintained its upward momentum. At present, there is a shortage of spot goods in the market, and supply remains tight. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 8875 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.9% compared to the beginning of this month (8625 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors: On the raw material side, there has been a significant increase in the market price of raw material propylene recently, and the supply is tight, resulting in an increase in the production cost of epichlorohydrin. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6770.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.22% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Equipment situation: In early October, Jiangsu Haixing Chemical, a leading enterprise in epoxy chloropropane production, stopped maintenance of its 130000 tons/year propylene method epoxy chloropropane unit.

Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin demand is mainly based on small orders, and the raw material side continues to rise. The cost of epoxy resin is supported, and suppliers are cautious in purchasing, resulting in low enthusiasm for inquiries.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the cost side price will rise, the supply will be insufficient, downstream demand will be the main source, new orders will be insufficient, and raw materials will be purchased cautiously. In addition, leading enterprises will stop for maintenance, and the market supply will be tight. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market may have a slight increase in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in market prices.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market has been declining this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market was 15316.67 yuan/ton, and the average price of titanium dioxide over the weekend was 15166.67 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.98%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market is trending downwards this week. Internationally, due to the impact of anti-dumping tariffs, some export orders have been temporarily suspended from shipment. The domestic market is currently in a low season, and the demand for titanium dioxide continues to be sluggish. Enterprises face significant shipping pressure, with some experiencing a decline in new order prices of 100-200 yuan/ton to promote inventory reduction. Due to inspections by environmental protection groups, some companies have started to reduce or shut down production. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid method pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14500-15900 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13200-13500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region is running weakly. At present, the market is weak, the downstream purchasing atmosphere is average, and the market for titanium dioxide enterprises is sluggish. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1480-1530 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2050-2120 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2250-2350 yuan/ton. In the short term, downstream markets are mostly observing, and the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to be weak. The specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market has fallen this week, with light trading on the market, so it is advisable to be cautious and wait. Overall, downstream market demand is weak, and titanium dioxide companies face significant shipping pressure. It is expected that the market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated one by one.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this month (10.1-10.31), with an average market price of 257560 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 253660 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.51%.

The tin price showed an upward trend in the first half of this month, followed by a range oscillation, and then rebounded in the second half.

In October, the Wa State of Myanmar issued a notice regarding the mining end. Detailed explanation: Companies applying for exploration and mining licenses, as well as factory operation licenses, must complete the payment within the prescribed time. Otherwise, the company’s application will be cancelled and the relevant mining rights and materials will be reclaimed by the Industrial and Mining Bureau for re planning. As a result, the expectation of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar continues to increase, but considering the specific timeline of the process, the probability of resuming production within this year is relatively low, and may be reflected in next year. Supported by the continued shortage of raw materials, tin prices showed an upward trend in the first half of the month.

On the refining end, with the completion of maintenance for large domestic refineries in October, it is expected that production will steadily rebound this month. The operating rate of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi has significantly returned to normal levels. The export of Indonesian tin ingots continues to recover, and it is expected that they will continue to flow into the domestic market. The import volume of domestic tin ingots in the second half of the year will significantly increase compared to the previous year. The expected increase in accumulated inventory has led to a rebound in tin prices.

On the demand side, there is differentiation in performance. The production of tin solder has improved compared to last month, but overall it is still at a low level. The semiconductor industry is still in the stage of recovery, with sales growth continuing to rebound; The performance in the photovoltaic field remains sluggish.

Overall, there are many uncertain factors at present, but the strengthening of the non-ferrous sector in the short term may drive up tin prices. The recovery of raw material supply poses resistance to the rise in tin prices. At present, it still maintains a range oscillation trend.