1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, sodium hypophosphate has been running smoothly this month. As of May 28th, the mainstream price of sodium hypophosphate (2123, 99% content) in China was 14733.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as last month. The mainstream price of sodium hypophosphate (2123102% content) is 20533.33 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the previous month.

2、 Market analysis

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that the domestic sodium hypophosphate market has been operating steadily since May. The news on the sodium hypophosphate market has remained calm, and there has been little overall change in the supply and demand sides. At present, the supply side of sodium hypophosphate is operating steadily, and downstream demand continues to be dominated by rigid procurement. As of May 28th, the domestic market price of sodium hypophosphate (domestic, 99% content) is referenced around 11500-16000 yuan/ton, the domestic market price of sodium hypophosphate (domestic, 102% content) is referenced around 18600-23800 yuan/ton, and the domestic market price of sodium hypophosphate (Jinhua, premium grade) is referenced around 18000-29500 yuan/ton

Cost side:

The market price of yellow phosphorus fell in May. On May 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 23593.33 yuan/ton, and on May 28th, the average price was 22626.67 yuan/ton. The price fell by 4.1% during the month. The overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market is average. In the first half of the year, the domestic yellow phosphorus market was light, while in the second half, the price of yellow phosphorus fluctuated. High end prices will be lowered, while low-end prices will be adjusted. Overall procurement remains relatively cautious.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In May, the overall price of yellow phosphorus fell, and the expected cost changes constrained the price trend. At present, the atmosphere of negotiations on sodium hypophosphate in the market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is still acceptable. Downstream demand and sales are still mainly based on rigid demand for stocking and procurement. According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society, in the short term, the domestic sodium hypophosphate market will mostly operate steadily, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the PP market has been experiencing strong fluctuations recently, with prices of various wire drawing brands generally increasing. As of May 28th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7950 yuan/ton, up or down by 1.37% from the price level on May 1st.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the high international crude oil prices still provide support for the PP market. The price of propylene fluctuates and consolidates. Domestic port inventories of propane have decreased, with prices slightly rising. Overall, the cost support for PP in the near future is still acceptable.

Overall, the raw material market is strong, providing strong support for the cost side of PP. In terms of industry load, there has been significant stability and small fluctuations, with an average load of around 72% in the near future. The inventory of production enterprises remains basically unchanged, with limited changes in supply pressure. There may be a partial return to production capacity in the later stage, which may cause a certain degree of supply increase. The strong macroeconomic expectations in the market have to some extent pushed up spot prices, but the load on end enterprises has generally remained stable. Downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding have a comprehensive operating rate of about 42%, 65%, and 57% at the end of the month, respectively. The demand is limited, and enterprise replenishment operations are mainly based on basic needs, resulting in a moderate trading atmosphere.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 28th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has fluctuated and increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7762.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.49% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 8% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen significant and stable loads, with an average operating rate of around 29%. The trading volume in the non-woven fabric market is average, and orders are mainly based on contracts. The digestion speed of end products has slowed down, and the upward trend is mainly driven by macro expectations. It is expected that the future market of fiber materials may still be constrained by weak demand and weak operation.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has remained stable with an increase this week. As of May 28th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8075 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.47%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.22%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. In addition, the downstream factories have low load, and most of the new orders are scattered. It is expected that the digestion speed of terminal products in the future market will be slow, and melt blown materials may weaken due to the drag of demand.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has been generally strong and volatile in recent times. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is relatively strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. Although there are expectations of an increase in the supply of goods, the current supply pressure is temporarily easing. The production of terminal enterprises is stable, and stocking is essential to maintain production. The current strong macro weak reality on the market is expected to gradually enter the off-season market in the future, The PP market may stagnate and weaken.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the CPP market prices were relatively strong last week. As of May 27th, the mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of 25 μ m CPP film is around 10183.33 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.4% compared to the beginning of the month and about 0.33% compared to the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP first rose and then fell last week. The mainstream quoted price of domestic manufacturers and traders T30S (wire drawing) was around 7907.14 yuan/ton, which is 0.82% higher than the beginning of this month (7742.86 yuan/ton). The price of raw material PP first rose and then fell, but it is still at a high level, and the cost side has a certain boost to CPP prices. In terms of supply: the membrane enterprise has sufficient inventory and still has surplus, and the pressure on the supply side is still there. In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises are cautious in their inquiries, and the trading atmosphere on the market is weak. There is a certain supply-demand contradiction in the market.

Future Market Forecast

Cost side spot futures have all risen, providing some support for downstream CPP. However, overall market demand is weak, and the release of inventory is limited. It is expected that CPP film prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, TDI prices in East China remained stable and upward this week (5.20-5.24). As of May 24th, the average market price in East China was 15000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 14900 yuan/ton on May 20th, an increase of 0.67%.

This week, the TDI market has remained stable with minor fluctuations. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, with average enthusiasm for entering the market, limited market trading, and a conflicted mentality in the trade market. Holders tend to offer mostly stable prices, and the supportive attitude of suppliers during the week has been released. The focus of market trading has slightly increased, but the trading atmosphere on the exchange is not good, with insufficient positive support, TDI prices have once again stabilized.

The upstream toluene market is operating steadily, with the domestic average price of toluene around 7500 yuan/ton as of May 24th, which is unchanged from the price of 7500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. International crude oil is experiencing weak fluctuations, with weak support from the cost of toluene; The production of xylene has slightly decreased, and the demand for toluene is relatively weak; The decrease in inventory at the port has eased the pressure on the toluene market to a certain extent, and under multiple factors, the domestic methanol market price remains stable.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that the factory equipment is currently operating smoothly, with high market capacity utilization, weak supplier support, weak downstream demand, limited entry into the market for procurement, and insufficient market confidence. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that TDI will be weak and prices will fluctuate narrowly in the future. Specific attention will be paid to the follow-up situation of downstream procurement.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11766 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon over the weekend was 11833 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.57%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers are generally stable, with some prices rising. The downstream inquiry atmosphere is positive, and the factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton. Market transactions are improving, with a focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The inquiries in the activated carbon market are positive, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

According to the business commodity market analysis system, as of May 22, 2024, the reference factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 4116 yuan/ton. Compared with May 17 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4166 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that this week (5.17-5.22), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market experienced a slight decline and then consolidated and operated. At the beginning of the week, the overall price difference between high and low prices in the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was reduced. In the early stage, some factories with higher prices narrowly lowered the outbound price of dimethyl carbonate this week, with a reduction of 50-100 yuan/ton, driving the overall market trend to slightly approach downward. Subsequently, during the mid week period, the overall stability and consolidation of the dimethyl carbonate market were observed. As of May 22nd, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 3950-4200 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream epoxy propane: On May 21st, the Shandong epoxy propane market remained stable, with mainstream prices at around 9400 yuan/ton. Cost support was average, and factory shipments weakened. Downstream procurement was cautious.

Further analysis in the future

At present, the supply side of dimethyl carbonate is relatively stable, and the overall demand in the downstream market is also relatively stable. The transmission of supply and demand is still good. According to the data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

Last week (May 13-19), the market price of raw material caprolactam increased slightly, and the price of nylon filament followed suit. Downstream demand was stable, and the operating rate of the nylon filament industry was at a high level. There was little change in on-site supply, and the inventory levels of various manufacturers were average, with little inventory pressure. Downstream manufacturers are multi-dimensional and purchase according to demand, with overall stable demand. Overall, the cost side tends to rise strongly, with little change in on-site supply and stable terminal demand.

Market price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, last week (May 13-19), the price center of nylon filament rose. As of May 19, 2024, the price of DTY nylon filament (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 19040 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.42%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16700 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.45%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is quoted at 20050 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Strong operation of raw materials

Last week (May 13-19), the market price of caprolactam, a raw material for nylon filament, was relatively strong and increased. The price of raw material pure benzene remains stable with minor fluctuations, and cost support is still acceptable. The downstream operating rate has increased, leading to a positive demand for raw materials and an increase in terminal demand. Some companies are planning maintenance for their caprolactam units, leading to a tightening of market supply. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of caprolactam in China was 13122 yuan/ton on May 19th. On May 13th, the average market price of caprolactam in China was 12950 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.25%. The improvement in terminal demand, coupled with a decrease in market supply, has driven up the price of caprolactam. It is expected that the short-term market trend of caprolactam will continue to be strong.

Supply and demand

Last week (May 13-19), nylon manufacturers maintained a stable operating load, with sufficient supply of goods and little inventory pressure. Entering May, downstream demand is gradually increasing, and downstream manufacturers are multidimensional and purchasing according to demand, maintaining stable demand in the nylon spinning field.

Future Market Forecast

The spot market for raw material caprolactam is relatively strong, with reasonable support on the cost side. On site supply remains normal, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. Analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly follow the stable and moderate preference of raw materials, and the price will move up in a narrow range with large stability and small fluctuations.

Recently, some domestic acrylic ester products have been significantly affected by domestic equipment maintenance and overseas exports, resulting in a tight market supply and an overall improvement in quantity and price. The overall market atmosphere is warm, with factories mainly delivering contracts and holders under less pressure to ship. The quotation is steadily running. Among them, the price of isooctyl acrylate has increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in upstream raw material prices, which has a certain impact on market prices

As of May 20th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.42% compared to the beginning of this month (9440.00 yuan/ton)

As of May 20th, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9375.00 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from the beginning of this month

As of May 20th, the benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 12800.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.39% compared to the beginning of this month (12625.00 yuan/ton)

From the perspective of other products in the industry chain, the fluctuation range of acrylic acid prices is limited, mainly because, on the one hand, the price of raw material propylene has rebounded, with an average propylene market price of 6788.60 yuan/ton, an increase of -0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6800.60 yuan/ton); The average market price of ethanol is 6050.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the beginning of this month (6012.50 yuan/ton); The average market price of n-butanol is 8133.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.83% compared to the beginning of this month (7833.33 yuan/ton); The average monthly price of isooctanol in the market is 9760.00 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 1.04% compared to the beginning of this month (9660.00 yuan/ton). The majority of alcohol market prices have risen this month, which is beneficial for supporting the acrylic ester market.

The downstream water reducing agent market for acrylic acid is maintaining stable operation, with some monomer production enterprises offering narrow fluctuations in prices. Downstream demand side is not highly sensitive to price, and cautious observation is mainly focused on receiving first-time demand. Early inventory digestion is slow, and it is expected that the monomer market will continue to maintain stable operation in the short term.

The downstream SAP industry of acrylic acid has experienced a phenomenon of oversupply but insufficient demand. This is because although SAP in China has a large production and exports, the product supply is mainly low-end products, and most high-end products need to be imported from countries such as Japan, which has dragged down the market. The SAP industry supply has a structural imbalance in supply characteristics. Currently, the price of acrylic acid in the northern market is relatively stable, and some major manufacturers in the East and South China markets have slightly increased their prices, but market transactions are still slow to follow up.

Overall, the current acrylic ester market is mainly affected by raw materials and downstream demand. Analysts from Business Society predict that the acrylic acid and ester market will continue to be dominated by supply and demand in the short term, and the price fluctuation space may be limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 17th, the average market price of compound fertilizer was 3060 yuan/ton, and on May 11th, the average market price of compound fertilizer was 3050 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.33% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

This week, the domestic potassium chloride market continued its previous consolidation trend, with a calm market performance. The demand for ammonium chloride in the market is good, and factories have sufficient pending orders. The domestic market price of potassium sulfate continues to rise, with a significant increase. Resource based potassium sulfate manufacturers are still producing, and some manufacturers will enter traditional summer maintenance on the 31st of this month. The subsequent supply of goods will be significantly reduced.

In terms of supply and demand

With the sustained support of the favorable raw material market, especially with the significant increase in urea prices, the release of high nitrogen fertilizer prices in summer is concentrated. The purchase and sales of compound fertilizers in summer are approaching a sprint, and the increase in compound fertilizer prices seems to have not caused too much turbulence. Compound fertilizer factories generally indicate that there is still surplus to be shipped, and new replenishment orders are gradually following up, with average demand.

Future Market Forecast

Before the existing inventory is digested, the demand for replenishment may also be delayed and released. Compound fertilizer companies have a trend of rising prices, but whether they can truly land on the market still depends on the actual situation of downstream replenishment in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 16th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52% compared to last Thursday’s price.

Recently, the market price of epichlorohydrin has fallen. At this stage, the price of raw material propylene first rises and then falls, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine mainly falls. The raw material glycerol runs weakly and steadily, and the cost face has limited impact on the market of epichlorohydrin. The support for terminal demand is weak, and downstream follow-up on epichlorohydrin is not good. The main focus is on digesting inventory, and small orders are selected for low demand buying. The market transaction atmosphere is not high, and due to the impact of some device restart plans, the mentality of operators is under pressure. Enterprises are actively shipping, and the focus of negotiations in the epichlorohydrin market is downward.

Raw material propylene:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on May 15th, the reference price of propylene was 6818.60, an increase of 0.26% compared to May 1st (6800.60). Recently, the price of raw material propylene has risen first and then fallen, providing continued support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Main downstream epoxy resin: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of epoxy resin on May 15th was 12833.33, a decrease of 0.26% compared to May 1st (12866.67), which lacks support for the epoxy chloropropane market.

Future Market Forecast:

According to analysts from Business Society, the current transaction atmosphere in the epichlorohydrin market is weak, and the short-term cost impact may be limited. Under the expectation of supply increment, there is no significant improvement in the demand side, and the mentality of operators is cautious and weak. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will continue to operate weakly in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.