Price Trend
The propane market fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average propane market price was 3820 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 3757.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 1.64%, 12.62% compared with the same period last year.
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II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: This week, the domestic propane market shocks and falls, the market turnover atmosphere is general. As of June 28, the propane self-use of Dongming Petrochemical Company in Shandong Province was suspended, while the production of Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Company in Sinopec was suspended for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 3800 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 3700 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 3870 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 3780 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 3750 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3680 yuan/ton.
Industry chain: The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market rose narrowly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 3783.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3800 yuan/ton. Within the week, the increase was 0.44%, and the price fell by 8.67% compared with the same period last year. Domestic propylene (Shandong) rose steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic propylene market was 7612 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average price was 7666 yuan/ton. Within the week, the increase was 0.71%, and the price fell by 7.31% compared with the same period last year. May CP, Saudi Arabia: The prices of propane and butane have all fallen sharply. Propane was $430 per ton, down 95 per ton from the previous month; butane was $415 per ton, down 115 per ton from the previous month. This week’s rise in international crude oil boosted the liquefied petroleum gas market and led to higher prices. But at present, the weather is gradually warming up, the market demand is not high, the enthusiasm for purchasing has been reduced, coupled with the fall in July CP price has become a foregone conclusion, negative market mentality, downstream mostly wait-and-see, propane market is weak. Price shocks have fallen.
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Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 25th week (6.24-6.28) of 2019, there were 30 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 3.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were calcium carbide (7.55%), crude benzene (6.50%) and hydrochloric acid (5.26%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrogen peroxide (-7.36%), butanone (-5.93%) and ammonium sulfate (-4.42%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.18%.
3. Future Market Forecast
Propane analysts believe that the current demand is still in the off-season, the market is in a situation of oversupply, the fall in CPs prices in July has become a foregone conclusion, downstream market entry caution is mostly wait-and-see. It is expected that the market will still fall in the future.