Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of October 10, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 13075 yuan/ton, which rose by 0.38% in the same period last month and fell by 11.26% compared with the same period last year. The overall market is tidied up in a narrow range.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregated MDI market price narrow collation, price fluctuation is not large. The market has been in a “sad” atmosphere since Coase set the guided price. Before the festival, the “pledge” price rises, but after the festival, it falls completely. Despite the fact that some operators believe that both BASF and Wanhua have equipment maintenance plans in the fourth quarter, and that the two factories are in a strong market, coupled with a reduction in imports, supply will be tight. However, at present, the weather in the North has cooled down, especially the outdoor construction projects in Northeast China have been gradually shut down, and the demand has been correspondingly weakened. The downstream traders in Shandong Province are often bottoming out because of today’s market prices, frequent stockpiling, large inventory, and slow consumption due to environmental protection and trade wars. Overall demand has been weak all year round. Supplier factories have fewer accidents, normal start-up and declining prices under pressure.

On the market side, the aggregate MDI market in North China is weakening and tidying up. The atmosphere in the market is still light, and follow-up transactions are scarce. Businessmen talk about low-end shipments and sporadic low prices are heard. At present, the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 12200-12300 yuan/ton, and the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in PM200 refers to 13000-13200 yuan/ton. In East China, the market of aggregated MDI is weak and shocky. Inquiries and inquiries on the market are not enough to buy gas, and the follow-up of transactions is not smooth. Businessmen talk about low-end shipments, and low prices are heard. At present, Shanghai barreled discharging offer refers to 12200-12300 yuan/ton, PM200 barreled discharging offer refers to 13200-13300 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: domestic pure benzene Market declined, external prices rose and fell, the decline of the U. S. external market dragged down domestic selling prices. Sinopec’s listed price fell, crude oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday morning and then fell. Demand prospects in the oil market remained unoptimistic, and oil prices closed down at the end of the day. CFR prices in China have fallen sharply, while domestic market pressures have fallen. However, the port inventory has not increased significantly, which gives strong support to the market. It is tentatively estimated that the short-term pure benzene market range is weak.

Aniline: Domestic aniline Market negotiations are stable, the price of raw material hydrobenzene negotiations has fallen sharply, and the cost of aniline has declined. Aniline negotiations are expected to decline steadily in the near future. The mainstream reference price in Shandong and North China is 7760 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market price in East China is about 7800 yuan/ton.
3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Perspective: Business Cooperatives Aggregate MDI analysts predict that some practitioners in the late market will use equipment maintenance and other news to pull up the market, but under the repeated “hot and cold” speculation, price fluctuation frequency increases, but the fluctuation range is not large. In this market, the holder can only keep shipment as the main factor. Short-term domestic aggregated MDI market price vulnerability collation, there is no lack of room to explore.