I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, polysilicon market in October did not continue the high market in September. The price stopped rising and the increase was quite limited. Especially in the late ten days, the market gradually cooled down, but the pressure of supply and demand was not great, the market showed some rigidity, and the price did not fall significantly. As of October 30, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the overall growth rate of domestic polysilicon solar grade was 1.62%, and the average price of the enterprise was 63000-67000 yuan / ton, and the current price fell about 20% year on year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 7300-760 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is narrower than that in September.

II. Market analysis

In the whole month, the domestic polysilicon market performance is relatively stable. After going through the slow bull market of “Jinjiu”, the polysilicon market has entered a stable period at present. As the overall market temperature has not continued, the procurement remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the purchase price of polysilicon will continue to fluctuate in the next month. From the perspective of supply and demand, the current market performance is relatively balanced. On the one hand, the market supply is sufficient, and the overhaul rate of large factories is low, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large. At present, there are four polysilicon enterprises in the overhaul period by the end of the month in 15 domestic polysilicon production enterprises, and the overhaul is expected to continue to November. At present, most enterprises have started to sign orders in November, which is also an important factor supporting the price of polysilicon. In October, the domestic polysilicon output was about 3160 tons, an increase of 4.6% on a month on month basis. The increase of domestic production in October mainly comes from the release of new production capacity of Yongxiang, Xinjiang GCL, Xinjiang Daquan and other enterprises, with a total increase of 2500 tons on a month on month basis. Generally speaking, the supply in October is enlarged, but combining with the price stability, we can infer the rigidity of polysilicon downstream demand. The market is still at the end of the “silver ten” peak season, with relatively active supply and demand performance.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: in October, the polysilicon market demand continued the momentum of September. Although it did not expand significantly in September, it was still in a moderate growth, and the market demand was relatively stable. Previously, the silicon material price corresponding to the silicon chip price was relatively low, so the pressure of polysilicon enterprises is indeed large at present, but with the polysilicon demand stabilizing in the near future, the overall situation It is not conducive to the price of overall polycrystalline products, so it also limits the price of polycrystalline silicon to continue to rebound. The trading performance of overseas polycrystalline market is more active than that of domestic market, especially the small material market. Considering the change of exchange rate, the high price market has increased. The main reason why the domestic polysilicon price did not continue to rise is that the demand did not continue to enlarge.

III. future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that at present, the market of polysilicon has stabilized, and there are four polysilicon companies that have not resumed normal operation by the end of the month, two of which are expected to resume in early November. According to the operation status and production and maintenance plan of silicon material enterprises at home and abroad, the polysilicon supply in November is slightly less than expected. Considering that the current inventory pressure of enterprises is not large, there is still a certain risk in polysilicon supply. In addition, the trend of polycrystalline silicon in the future mainly depends on the change of demand: the demand begins to shift to the single crystal market, so the single crystal market may be better than the polycrystalline market. Accordingly, the single crystal will occupy part of the polycrystalline demand, while the polycrystalline demand shows a decreasing trend. However, the maintenance of the silicon enterprise affects part of the supply in the same period, offsetting the impact of some expected demand reduction. Therefore, in the short term, the polysilicon market will continue to maintain a stable and strong trend, mainly with narrow amplitude fluctuations.