1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the market price of domestic aggregate MDI continued to be depressed. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI was 12875 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of aggregate MDI was 11750 yuan / ton, down 8.74% in the month, 34.27% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in March, the domestic aggregate MDI market began to fall again after rebounding from its low point, and the fluctuation range of the whole month was about 1000-1300 yuan / ton. It is difficult for the demand side to have obvious positive news, only the occasionally released supplier good news, and it is difficult for the aggregate MDI market price to be stable for a long time. Supply side: the overall load of each manufacturer is still around 40%, and the Ruian plant is still in the state of shutdown. During the whole March, the manufacturer’s information was scarce, and there was no attitude. Occasionally, the market operators released false device information to raise market prices and actively shipped goods. In summary, the market price dropped to 11000 yuan / ton at the end of the month. Trade side: in the early months, the manufacturers put pressure on the traders, and the stocks of the traders were high, and they actively negotiated the shipment at a low price. However, the settlement price at the end of the month is on the high side, and the profit of the agent is seriously reduced. At present, the trade side is cautious in shipment and dare not go too low in price.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell sharply this month. In the month, Saudi Arabia and Russia plan to increase production substantially, and the oil demand is greatly reduced due to the epidemic prevention and control of city closures in overseas countries, and the imbalance between supply and demand leads to a sharp drop in crude oil; while the macroeconomic indicators such as US stocks are also greatly reduced due to the impact of health events. Affected by the above macro negative factors, the price of pure benzene weakened significantly in March, with a drop of more than 2600 yuan / ton in East China. In March, Sinopec’s listing price was lowered seven times, totaling 2750 yuan / ton.

Aniline: in terms of aniline, the domestic aniline market fell in the month. Raw materials: affected by health events and crude oil plummeting, leading to the decline of bulk commodities, Sinopec’s pure benzene fell 2750 yuan / ton to 2600 yuan / ton in the month of listing, with wide fall in cost, weak support for aniline and negative market for aniline

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (55.64%), methylic acid (20.51%) and ammonium chloride (20.48%). There are 59 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 46 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 8.47%.

3、 Future forecast

View of business community: at the end of the month, the listing prices of all suppliers’ factories held steady in April, but the positive boost was weak. The weekly guidance prices of costron and Ryanair showed some signs of bearish, and the post market mentality of the industry was more pessimistic. Good news is hard to find. MDI analysts predict that the MDI market will continue to decline slightly next month, but the agent will be slightly cautious in considering the settlement price of the manufacturer, and the overall decline rate will be slow.