1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel fell this week. The price of domestic gasoline was 5194 yuan / ton, 3.11% lower than that of last week. The price of domestic diesel was 5002 yuan / ton, 4.18% lower than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: crude oil futures price falls first and then rises, and the refined oil market follows the price adjustment. Domestic enterprises return to work and resume production, which brings good demand. However, recently, the operating rate of domestic refining and chemical equipment has risen to a high level, and the market price of refined oil is insufficient.

Industry chain: Saudi Arabia has been waging a price war, constantly putting downward pressure on oil prices through increasing production. However, trump has repeatedly released optimistic comments. On Thursday, he tweeted that Russia and Saudi Arabia are expected to cut production by 10-15 million barrels, which was later refuted by Saudi officials, and the increase in international oil prices fell. But as of 15:00 on the 3rd, the price of WTI crude oil was 25.5 US dollars / barrel, and this week, WTI crude oil futures rose 16.5%.

Market: the rebound of international oil price is good for the market price of refined oil, but the average starting load of refining and purchase in recent years has risen rapidly to 70.35%, 8.51 percentage points higher on a month on month basis. On the demand side and on the gasoline side, domestic enterprises have basically resumed production, and the retail price of domestic gasoline has dropped to a low point. Traders and downstream customers have low-cost replenishment operations, and gasoline transactions are acceptable. In terms of diesel, the construction and infrastructure construction maintain a high operating rate. In terms of logistics and transportation, according to the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the prosperity index of China’s logistics industry in March 2020 was 51.5%, up 25.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the logistics and transportation industry picked up faster and supported the demand for diesel oil significantly. This week, the price of domestic refined oil market first fell and then rose, but the increase was limited.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that: at present, crude oil prices are rising and falling by a large margin, market news is long and empty, and there are signs of recovery in the refined oil market. However, the recovery in the operating rate of refinery units has restrained the increase in the price of refined oil, and it is expected that the market price of refined oil will be stable in the near future.