1、 Overall trend

This week (4.20-24) polyethylene showed a downward trend, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was weak. As of April 24, the average ex factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China was 6266.67 yuan / ton, down 6.47% compared with the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of LDPE 2426h in East China was about 7300 yuan / ton, down 6.11% compared with the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of HDPE 5000S in East China was 7483.33 yuan / ton, down 6.68% compared with the beginning of the week; large PE varieties dropped 300-600 yuan / ton on Wednesday.

2、 Market analysis

Upstream: crude oil fell first and then rose this week. On April 20, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell sharply, with June contract at 20.43 yuan / barrel, down $4.60 (- 18.4%). Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract at $25.57/barrel, down $0.26. At one time, the contract fell to a negative range in May, but from the perspective of the contract in June, the negative value was the exception, not the normal state of the global crude oil market. On April 23, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States rose sharply, with the settlement price of major contracts at 16.50 yuan / barrel, up $2.72 or 19.7%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract settlement price was 24.79 US dollars / barrel, up 4.42 US dollars or 21.7%. This is also the international crude oil rebound for two consecutive days, with WTI up more than 40%, mainly due to the accelerated production reduction of oil producing countries, as well as peripheral geopolitical factors.

Dynamic of manufacturers: at the beginning of the week, under the attack of international crude oil, petrochemical enterprises continued to decline, successively reducing the ex factory price of PE, and the market cost support strength weakened. Then the linear futures fell back in shock, affecting the market mentality, the mood of merchants was pessimistic, and the price fell accordingly. Downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, more on-demand replenishment, strong wait-and-see mood. Later in the week, the rebound of international crude oil supported the market to a certain extent, and the price stopped falling and returned to stability. At present, the overall contradiction between supply and demand still exists in the market, and the atmosphere continues to be weak.

Futures trend: this week, the futures market first fell and then rose, with a large amplitude. At the beginning of the week, the market fell in shock, the market atmosphere was short, and the weekend futures prices rose. On April 24, the opening price of polyethylene futures l2009 was 6080, the highest price was 6175, the lowest price was 6020, the closing price was 6110, the former settlement price was 5960, the settlement price was 6090, up 150, up 2.52%, the volume was 560181, the position was 353346, and the daily position was 1406. (quotation unit: yuan / ton).

Downstream: at present, it is in the production season of plastic film, the demand for plastic film in the downstream has increased, and the market confidence has improved. The construction of large and medium-sized enterprises in the northern part of geomembrane is acceptable, about 50-80%. However, small and medium-sized enterprises have rarely started construction. The demand for mulch film in South China is coming to an end. Except for some large-scale enterprises to maintain production, most of them have been shut down. Later orders are expected to decrease.

3、 Future forecast

The trend of international crude oil rebounded and the linear futures also rose, bringing certain support to the market. In the late week, most of the prices of petrochemical enterprises have stopped falling and stabilized, and the enthusiasm of the downstream market has improved. However, petrochemical inventory is at a medium and high level, and there is still pressure on sales, or price control. It is expected that the future market will rise in the short term.