1、 Overall trend

This week (4.26-30) polyethylene showed an upward trend, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was general. As of April 30, the average ex factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China was 6300 yuan / ton, up 0.53% from the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of LDPE 2426h in East China was about 7325 yuan / ton, up 0.34% from the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of HDPE 5000S in East China was 7050 yuan / ton, up 0.95% from the beginning of the week; the big PE varieties increased by 50-200 yuan / ton on Wednesday.

2、 Market analysis

Upstream: crude oil fell first and then rose this week. On April 27, the global crude oil inventory remained high, the market was still worried that the reduction of production was not enough to offset the decline of demand, and the international oil price fell sharply. WTI 06 fell $4.16/barrel at 12.78, while Brent 06 fell $1.45/barrel at 19.99. China’s SC crude oil futures fell 11.1 yuan to 235.1 yuan / barrel in 2007. On April 29, overseas countries plan to gradually relax the epidemic control to boost demand. The market expects OPEC + joint production reduction to be implemented in May, and the growth rate of US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than expected. International oil prices have risen sharply. WTI 06 rose $2.72/barrel at 15.06, while Brent 06 rose $2.08/barrel at 22.54. China’s SC crude oil futures rose 13.5 yuan to 243.5 yuan / barrel in 2007.

Factory trends: at the beginning of the week, linear futures soared, which was good for the market. Most petrochemical enterprises raised the factory price by 50-100 yuan / ton. However, the international crude oil plummeted, and the futures also fell sharply, which to a certain extent hit the confidence of the industry. The market transaction atmosphere was light, and the PE market rose weakly. The price of petrochemical enterprises is stable, which supports the market to a certain extent. The mood of the businessmen is general, and more stable shipments. Late week, near the May Day holiday, there are replenishment operations in the downstream before the festival, the market transaction atmosphere is better than that in the earlier stage, and the price is mainly arranged horizontally.

Futures trend: the futures market fell in shock this week, which to some extent depressed the spot market. On April 30, the opening price of polyethylene futures l2009 was 6150, the highest price was 6190, the lowest price was 6020, the closing price was 6180, the former settlement price was 6110, the settlement price was 6110, up 70, or 1.15%, the trading volume was 423283, the position was 328375, and the daily increase was – 10925. (quotation unit: yuan / ton).

3、 Future forecast

The sharp rise in international crude oil has brought certain benefits to the market. The linear futures market fell in shock, which depressed the market mentality. At present, the peak season of plastic film demand has passed, the off-season is coming, and the terminal demand is expected to decrease. At the end of the month, petrochemical enterprises issue the price at the beginning of the next month, and the three kinds of PE drawing are all lowered, and the market atmosphere remains to be seen. Polyethylene market is expected to decline in May.