1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the caustic soda price continues to be in a weak consolidation operation this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 487.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 482.5 yuan / ton, with the price down 1.03. On May 24, the caustic soda commodity index was 69.42, the same as yesterday, 66.44% lower than 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 2.65% higher than 67.63, the lowest point on May 10, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the price of caustic soda is weak this week. At present, 32% ionic membrane alkali: about 420-500 yuan / ton in Shandong market, about 1400-1450 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, and about 550-650 yuan / ton in Jiangsu market. In terms of liquid caustic soda, the price of caustic soda in Shandong has returned to stability, the price performance of some markets in the south is stable, and some shipments are weak. At present, the overall price of domestic market is relatively low. Quotation of flake alkali: about 1780-1800 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, 2050-2100 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 2120-2150 yuan / ton in East China market and 1550-1600 yuan / ton in Xinjiang market. In terms of flake alkali, the manufacturer’s quotation continues to be firm, and some enterprises are still in maintenance state. However, due to the lack of downstream procurement, some traders gave up their profits in a narrow range.

Industry chain: from the perspective of downstream market, the starting load of downstream alumina and viscose industries is not high, among which, the starting load of viscose fiber industry has a downward trend, while other industries have a flat performance. On the whole, the market relies on the maintenance of enterprises for good support, but the terminal demand support strength is relatively weak, and the good support is insufficient.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, 2 kinds of commodities falling and 1 kind of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were PVC (3.34%), calcium carbide (0.68%); the main commodities falling were light soda ash (- 3.75%), caustic soda (- 1.03%). This week’s average was – 0.15%.

Macro: in April 2020, the BCI of the business community was -0.02, with an average increase of 0.38%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy compared with the previous month and the stable operation of the economy.

According to the analysts of the business association, the overall demand of domestic caustic soda market is general, the starting load of alumina is low, the price performance of some markets in the south is relatively strong, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. Because the price of liquid caustic soda is stagnant in the cost line, it is expected that the domestic caustic soda market will still operate stably as a whole, or there will be minor adjustment and operation in some parts.