1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business agency, on September 11, the average price of domestic LNG was 2430 yuan / ton, up 0.43% compared with the beginning of the week, 1.94% lower than the beginning of the month, 4.45% month on month, and 21.42% lower than the same period last year.

 

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2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

This week, the price trend of domestic liquefied natural gas is relatively strong, and some regions have made a small increase. Recently, the market has been relatively stable. Some liquid factories’ shipment situation has improved, the pressure has been reduced, and the liquid price has increased slightly. Among them, Shanxi, Sichuan, Ningxia and other places have adjusted their prices more actively, while other regions have remained stable and wait-and-see market. In terms of the receiving station, the performance was stable with little fluctuation. At present, the downstream demand is stable, there is no large volume, and the market trading is not warm. With the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises, the market supply is more and more abundant, the situation of supply exceeding demand is still the same, and there is little room for upward market price. Although there are price fluctuations in some regions, the overall market is gradually stabilizing. It is expected that consolidation will be the main trend in the short term.

 

In terms of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of this week is above 60%, and the maintenance season is coming to the end. With the resumption of production and sales of Hubei Huanggang and Inner Mongolia Paisi liquid plants, the overall market operating rate will continue to increase. Recently, the arrival of the ship is more intensive, and the market supply is still abundant. China imported 9.362 million tons of natural gas in August, up 2.015 million tons month on month (MOM), up 27.4%, according to the General Administration of customs. In terms of demand, the demand for vehicles has recovered, the sales volume of gas stations has increased, the performance of industrial gas consumption is average, the overall market demand has not changed significantly, and the market trend still needs time to verify.

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of September 11, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 2430 yuan / ton, that of Inner Mongolia was around 2390 yuan / ton, that of Shaanxi was 2470 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi was 2590 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang was 2330 yuan / ton, and that of Ningxia was 2370 yuan / ton.

 

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from September 11 to September 7

Inner Mongolia Shitai 550000 cubic meters / day 2350 yuan / ton 2350 yuan / ton

Star energy 1 million cubic meters / day 2380 yuan / ton 2380 yuan / ton

Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day 2380 yuan / ton 2380 yuan / ton

Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 2350 yuan / ton 2320 yuan / ton 30 yuan

Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2420 yuan / ton: 2440 yuan / ton – 20 yuan

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2930 yuan / ton: 2900 yuan / ton

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2380 yuan / ton 2360 yuan / ton 20 yuan

Qinshui Xinao – 2650 yuan / ton 2600 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day 2600 yuan / ton 2600 yuan / ton

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million cubic meters / day 1900 yuan / ton 1750 yuan / ton 150 yuan

Downstream methanol, domestic methanol market continued to rise, the rise was slower than last week. At the beginning of the week, affected by the strong trend of futures, the quotation of methanol market in various regions also went up to varying degrees, among which the rise in Shandong and Shanxi was obvious. At the end of the week, with the crude oil plummeting, the chemical products prices generally fell, and the high quotation of methanol market dropped. Some production enterprises temporarily shut down their devices, and the enterprise shipment was fair, and the manufacturer’s offer was firm. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

 

The liquid ammonia market is still in the period of market adjustment since the market experienced an upward market in mid and early August. Basically, supply and demand are mainly balanced. In addition, some plants are still in the maintenance period, and it is expected that the ammonia volume will remain moderate in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will remain strong in the near future. However, with the recovery of large plants in Shandong Province, the gradual accumulation of ammonia quantity is not ruled out, and the possibility of price decline in mid September is not ruled out.

 

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Urea, the market fluctuated slightly, fell to. The upstream liquid ammonia dropped slightly recently, and the cost support was general. However, domestic demand is weak, agricultural demand has not yet started, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. At present, the price in Shandong is about 1660-1720 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

 

Dichloromethane: at present, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province is on the wait-and-see stage after the rise. In the early stage, the price of liquid chlorine of raw materials is high. In addition, some traders began to prepare goods before the festival. The price of dichloromethane is rising. Recently, the enthusiasm of downstream market to receive orders has declined, and the market transaction situation has become weak. The owner is mainly on the wait-and-see manner. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2250-2280 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 3000 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2400 yuan / ton. Although the purchase intention of downstream market is weak, the price of dichloromethane will remain relatively strong, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cost side.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

LNG analysts from the business agency believe that: in September, downstream demand has improved, some liquid plants have a good shipping atmosphere, and prices have risen slightly. However, the preliminary maintenance enterprises are coming back to production one after another. The market supply is increasing, and there is little room for the liquid price to rise. The market as a whole is gradually stabilizing. It is expected that consolidation will be the main trend in the short term, with small fluctuations in some regions.

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