Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic caprolactam market will fall sharply in 2020, and it will return to the price level at the beginning of the year, and the overall performance will be weak. As of December 22, the average offer price of caprolactam sample enterprises was 11300 yuan / ton, only 3.04% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the year. This year, almost all industries have been impacted to varying degrees, such as global health events, anti globalization trade war, and the game between crude oil producing areas, etc., which may be unbearable in 2020, but is there any imbalance in caprolactam industry itself. Business agency analysts take you back to the domestic caprolactam market this year.

Cause analysis

In the beginning of 2020, the situation in the Middle East will become tense, crude oil will rise, pure benzene market will rise, and cyclohexanone cost pressure will increase. Caprolactam slightly increased depending on raw material price support and logistics resistance. With the influence of social public events, all the good and bad suddenly stopped. Crude oil fell sharply, and the demand for pure benzene was very limited. At the same time, the transportation restriction is more serious, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is not active, just like the manager has a long holiday, and the market is stagnant. Caprolactam went down all the way for the rest of the first quarter. On April 7, it dropped from the annual low of 7833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 28.57% compared with the beginning of the year.

The turning point appeared in mid April, and a number of economic stimulus strategies were promulgated at home and abroad. Due to the change of crude oil and raw material pure benzene price, caprolactam price began to stop falling and rise. In addition, the recovery growth and ultra-low rebound brought about by the resumption of production and work, the downstream purchase of pure benzene was active, and the price of pure benzene recovered nearly 30% in the short term, and some areas of Shandong even had tight supply. At the same time, the downstream polyamide polymerization plant resumed production, and the situation of caprolactam supply shortage even lasted until May. Cost side and demand side jointly push up caprolactam spot, but there is a certain contradiction between supply and demand of PA6 callback range is very limited, the support for caprolactam is hard to say stable. Domestic pure benzene price was also higher than the import price, stagflation domestic spot.

The domestic market demand for caprolactam is not warm for a long time, and the spot price can only passively follow the ups and downs of upstream. To the third quarter, raw material prices continued to fall in early July, caprolactam cost support weakened, followed by the upstream. Then the pressure of pure benzene delivery was released rapidly, and the price rose sharply. The consumption of caprolactam was weak and the follow-up was lagging behind. The rally came late in August and September. And September is the traditional peak season of downstream PA6, and the industry is looking forward to the positive market brought by large demand. However, PA6′s response to “Jinjiu” was cold, and the consumption of PA6 dropped.

In September, the peak season of PA6 downstream of caprolactam was not prosperous, and some enterprises resumed production, resulting in a standstill of pure benzene. Among them, the transaction of PA6 high-speed spinning chips is particularly slow, and the downstream factories are generally hoarding goods in conventional spinning, which is detrimental to the spot price of caprolactam. Fortunately, the “silver 10″ recovered some gains, but this time the market is not so direct. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of PA6 was strong after the October Festival, and the downstream staple fiber and wrapping yarn enterprises were more active in resuming work after the festival, but the demand for replenishment failed to maintain, and the conventional spinning chips were weak at the end of October. The main advantage of caprolactam rise in the fourth quarter is the maintenance and load reduction operation of many enterprises. Orchid science and technology innovation, Zhejiang Juhua and Shandong Haili concentrated parking and maintenance, aggravating the supply shortage pattern. On site supply decreased, inventory position decreased, Sinopec high-end caprolactam increased to increase market confidence. By the end of the year, some enterprises resumed work, but the operating rate was still not high, and the pattern of tight supply remained unchanged. Caprolactam continues to be supported by the supply side. Large domestic caprolactam factories generally increase the ex factory price, and the market demand atmosphere remains firm.

Year end overview

Business agency analysts believe: caprolactam market in 2020 will be depressed first and then rise, and the price center of gravity will be recovered. At the end of the year, both supply and Inventory were low, and the downstream load level was high. At present, the atmosphere of caprolactam is acceptable. It is expected that the market will maintain a positive operation in the short term. But overall, the demand is not strong, almost throughout the year, analysts worry that the temporary supply side will not boost prices for a long time. The health of caprolactam industry is inseparable from the coordinated development of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.