1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend this week. Xylene price was 3930 yuan / ton on January 10, and 4110 yuan / ton on this Sunday (January 17), 170 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 4.31%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s xylene increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. In terms of external market, as of January 15, the price of imported xylene from South Korea was 583 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton or 0.17% compared with January 8; the price of imported xylene from East China was 591 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton or 0.17% compared with January 8. The good news of crude oil in the week supported the domestic xylene market price to rise. This week, the xylene inventory of East China port was about 80700 tons, down 15400 tons compared with last week.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell after rising this week, which was lower than last week. Compared with January 8, Brent fell by $0.775/barrel, or 1.42%; WTI rose by $0.16/barrel, or 0.31%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.

Downstream, PX market, the domestic PX price this week is more stable than last week, Sinopec’s listed price is about 4700 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 31.88%. As of January 15, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $671-673 / T FOB Korea and US $689-691 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fluctuated slightly this week. On January 17, the price was 3900 yuan / ton, down 0.2% and 20.14% year on year. As of January 15, PTA industry operating rate was 81.36%.

In the ox market, the price of ox fell this week. The price of ox in East China was 4700 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton or 6% from last week. The downstream market is weak and the demand is general. The transaction of o-benzene is weak, and the market of o-benzene is weak.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Affected by the public health events in Hebei and the rain and snow weather in northern China, transportation is limited, and some domestic downstream terminal plants are expected to shut down one after another, resulting in weaker demand for xylene. Toluene prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate next Tuesday. Continue to pay attention to the situation of downstream stock before the Spring Festival, and the impact of gasoline blending price trend on xylene price.