First rose and then stabilized, rising 7.34% in the month

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on September 30 was 22713.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared with the average market price of 23326.67 yuan / ton on September 24; Compared with the average market price of 21160 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (9.1), an increase of 7.34%.

Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 44.43%.

Tight supply of power restriction and production reduction

Recently, power rationing has been started up and down the country, and the upstream and downstream of electrolytic aluminum have been affected. On the supply side, since the beginning of the third quarter, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity regions, Southwest China (Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou) and Northwest China (Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Yulin) have successively issued power and production restriction policies, which are greatly affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption. At present, due to the problems of double control and power limitation, the annual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is reduced by 1.8 million tons, and there is a possibility of production reduction of another 800000 tons.

Previously, electrolytic aluminum production capacity was upgraded from thermal power aluminum in Northwest China and Shandong to green industries in water rich areas such as Guangxi, Yunnan and Sichuan. In the process of large-scale capacity transfer, hydropower is vulnerable to the “wet and dry” cycle of water, which affects the power supply, superimposes the “double control” and power shortage in other regions, and has a significant impact on the in-process and new capacity.

Cancellation of preferential power policies, soaring alumina prices and strong cost support

In terms of cost, the market price of domestic alumina is rising from 2750-2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3600-3800 yuan / ton; In addition, the price of power coal has soared all the way and the preferential power policies have been cancelled. The national development and Reform Commission has issued the notice on improving the step price policy of electrolytic aluminum industry (hereinafter referred to as the notice), which requires to improve the step price classification and price increase standard, prohibit the implementation of preferential price policies for electrolytic aluminum industry and strengthen the collection of price increase electricity charges. The electricity preferential policies were cancelled, the price of alumina soared, other raw and auxiliary materials also maintained an upward trend, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum was strongly supported.

High price superimposed policy power rationing, and the downstream operating rate fell

Overall, the operating rate of aluminum downstream industry chain fell slightly in September. It is mainly based on the power restriction factor and the repeated record high of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the month, and the upstream and downstream game intensifies after the middle of the month.

The operating rate of downstream aluminum profile manufacturers continued to decline. On the one hand, the situation of new orders is poor, the demand for building profiles is lower than expected, and the photovoltaic industry of industrial profiles is slightly bright, but the overall performance of the profile sector was poor in September. On the other hand, the power restriction policy in many places across the country is becoming stricter, and aluminum processing enterprises in key regions such as Jiangsu and Guangdong have been deeply affected.

The operating rate of downstream aluminum plate and strip manufacturers continued to decline. The main problem of limited power is forced to reduce production. Many small and medium-sized aluminum plate and strip plants in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Guangxi and other places are still greatly affected. The overall operating rate of the industry continues to decline, but the downstream demand is still strong, and the space for the decline of operating rate is expected to narrow.

The operating rate of downstream aluminum alloy manufacturers plummeted. Mainly due to the recent sharp rise in silicon and magnesium prices, the processing fee of primary aluminum alloy has also been adjusted with the above, with a daily increase of nearly 1000 yuan. The processing fee was frequently adjusted, the raw material procurement of primary aluminum alloy plant was under pressure, and the operating rate of the industry plummeted.

List of terminal demand data

In terms of real estate, the construction area of new houses from January to August 2021 was 1355020800 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of – 3.20%. From January to August 2021, the completed area of new houses was 467389500 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 26.00%.

In terms of automobiles, the output of automobiles in August 2021 was 1.725 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18.70%.

List of import and export data

In August 2021, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 490300 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23.99%.

Future forecast

Affected by the policies of “carbon neutralization”, “carbon peak” and dual control of energy consumption, the supply side has high uncertainty in the resumption of production in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Shaanxi. On the whole, the new capacity at the supply side basically forms a ceiling, and the probability of violent release of capacity is small. In the short term, under the superposition of high cost factors, the operation trend of high-level stability maintenance is mainly.