1、 441# silicon price trend

In September, the metal silicon market continued to be in the rising channel, experienced a continuous upward trend, and the metal silicon price stabilized at the end of the month. As of the 30th, the national metal silicon quotation was 60833.33 yuan / ton, down about 350 yuan / ton or 0.48% from last Friday; Rose 139.74% month on month.

2、 Price analysis of this month

In September, the silicon market continued to make rapid progress, with a daily rise of 10000 yuan, up about 35000 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month. In the early stage, silicon manufacturers were optimistic about the future market, and their reluctance to sell was obvious. Then, the news of power consumption reduction and power limitation in Yunnan continued to ferment, which was the main reason for the shock of silicon market. On the 26th of the end of the month, some metal silicon in Yunnan resumed production, and the price decreased steadily.

On September 29, the metal silicon commodity index was 423.43, down 2.03 points from yesterday, down 0.48% from the highest point of 425.46 in the cycle (2021-09-28), and up 515.72% from the lowest point of 68.77 on September 25, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

3、 Market analysis of this month

Policy side: as the main producing areas of metal silicon, Yunnan and Xinjiang, the problem of power restriction in Yunnan can be traced back to the rainy season, the rain is less than expected, and there are too many high energy consuming industries introduced in Yunnan, which makes the power contradiction more prominent; Due to the excessive energy consumption in the first half of the year, the dual control will be further strict in the second half of the year, and the high energy consumption control is expected to be implemented throughout the year.

Cost side: in September, the coke market rose in the first half of the month and remained stable in the second half of the month. Under the influence of policies such as a certain reduction in output and double control of production restriction, the tight situation of coke supply has improved compared with the previous market, and the price remains high and stable temporarily. In terms of silica, there are few high-quality resources and difficult mining, resulting in a slight shortage of high-quality silica supply.

Demand side: according to the customs data, the metal silicon export in August 2021 totaled 67700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49%, and the metal silicon export from January to August 2021 totaled 533000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.4%. Foreign demand for metal silicon remains high.

The demand for downstream photovoltaic and silicone continued to grow rapidly, and the silicone DMC market opened a sharp rise. As of the 30th, the ex factory price of domestic silicone DMC was around 60500-63300 yuan / ton, and the average price was 62366 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 66% in September.

Ku cunduan: according to the statistics of business society, as of the 24th, the social inventory of metal silicon in Huangpu port, Kunming and Tianjin Port was 56000 tons, up 6000 tons from last week. Under the high price, the trading atmosphere of metal silicon market is poor, the port inventory is more and less, and some warehouses are full.

4、 Future forecast

Now there is a shortage of coal and electricity, and many parts of the country are facing an electricity crisis. Although some silicon enterprises in Yunnan Province have resumed production, the follow-up policy is not clear, and the power outage in other regions is also very serious. It is expected that the shortage of metal silicon supply will not be alleviated for the time being. The high price metal silicon leads to few market transactions, pressure on the downstream, production reduction and shutdown superimposed on the impact of power restriction, and the demand is reduced. Overall, business analysts believe that metal silicon will remain high or rise slightly in the short term.