1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of October 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha was 7685.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.60% over 6948.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha increased first and then decreased.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of October 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7325.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.64% over 6805.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of local refining straight run naphtha increased first and then decreased.

On October 31, the naphtha commodity index was 94.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.22% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 124.55% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of refined naphtha in this month rises first and then decreases. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 7500-7800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 7200-7500 yuan / ton. In the near future, the downstream of the local refining market is mainly purchased on demand. As of the week of October 27, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil (except asphalt), including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, increased by 109000 barrels to a seven week high of 21.8 million barrels. During the week, light distillate stocks, including naphtha, gasoline and reformate, fell 157000 barrels to a two-week low of 12.187 million barrels. Medium distillate stocks increased by 976000 barrels to a five week high of 10.786 million barrels.

Upstream: international crude oil prices continued to rise in October. On the one hand, the current situation of global energy supply shortage is difficult to alleviate in the short term, especially natural gas. The European energy crisis is becoming more and more serious, and the EU natural gas inventory has reached the lowest level in recent ten years. Affected by the resonance of energy tension, crude oil inventories continue to decline. At present, OECD oil inventories have reached the lowest level since 2015. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have no new production increase plan, the market supply expectation is still tight, and the crude oil price has risen to the highest level in seven years. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was significantly positive. The U.S. crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level since 2018, superimposed on the increase in refinery demand, and the oil price was strongly supported in the short term. In addition, with the approach of winter in the northern hemisphere and the increase of heating demand, crude oil prices are supported.

Downstream: in October, the price of toluene rose continuously to a high level and fell slightly at the end of the month. On October 1, the price of toluene was 5700 / ton, 6770.2 yuan / ton on October 29, the lowest price in this month was 5700 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month was 6930 yuan / ton, an increase of 18.78% over the beginning of the month; In October, mixed xylene opened the upward channel, and the price continued to rise in a wide range, falling at the end of the month. On October 1, the price of mixed xylene was 5860 / ton; On October 29, the price was 6830 yuan / ton, the lowest price in this month was 5860 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month was 7060 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.55% over the beginning of the month; The price of p-xylene rose in October. By the end of the month, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, up 2.82% from 7100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there were 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in October 2021, including 10 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 62.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (29.09%), fuel oil (22.54%) and diesel (15.00%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were power coal (- 11.99%), methanol (- 7.27%) and petroleum coke (- 3.69%). The average increase and decrease this month was 6.93%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business society, the international crude oil rose sharply in October, supported by the cost of the local refined naphtha market. After the National Day holiday, some businesses just needed to replenish a small amount of goods, and the local refined naphtha market rose sharply; At the end of the month, affected by the decline of international crude oil and downstream product oil, the transaction in naphtha market was negative, the terminal just needed to prepare goods, and the market operation was cautious and mostly wait-and-see. It is expected that the price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha may be dominated by weakness in November.