1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou increased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 40000 yuan / ton last Thursday and 43500 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price increased by 8.75% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices continued to rise this week. The manufacturer mainly supplies old customers with early orders, and the transaction of new orders is acceptable. There are more inquiries in the yellow phosphorus field, higher market procurement enthusiasm, tight supply, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the price of yellow phosphorus rises. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 45000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 44000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 42000-43000 yuan / ton. It is reported that Yunnan began to implement the new electricity price in 2022 in January. The electricity price in Yunnan will rise, and the cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase.

The Guizhou Provincial mobilization meeting of the second central eco-environmental protection supervision group was held in Guiyang. According to the arrangement, the stationing time of the second central eco-environmental protection supervision group is one month. The arrival period (December 5, 2021 – January 5, 2022) affected the commencement of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Guizhou, and Guizhou enterprises have stopped production. Therefore, the downstream stock of yellow phosphorus is relatively active at present.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to operate at a high level this week, and the overall supply tension in the field will be maintained in the short term. The quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore truck in Hubei is about 660-680 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of 30% phosphate ore in Hebei is about 700-750 yuan / ton, and the price of 30% grade phosphorus ore freight yard in Guizhou is about 630-670 yuan / ton.

In terms of coke, according to the price monitoring of business society, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2494 yuan / ton and that of secondary metallurgical coke was 2438 yuan / ton on December 16. Today, the coke market price is still temporarily stable, the first round of increase has not been implemented, the domestic mainstream steel mills have not responded, and the game mentality of coke steel enterprises has intensified. In terms of coke enterprises, the current sales situation is good, and the inventory in the factory is low. The low inventory has boosted the mentality of coke enterprises. At present, Zhang Yixiang is strong. The downstream steel mills have winter storage plan, the intention of goods preparation has been improved, and the enthusiasm of procurement has been improved. In terms of policy, with the Winter Olympic Games approaching, coke steel enterprises are facing the impact of production restriction. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable, medium and strong in the short term. In the future, we still need to focus on the inventory of all links, the commencement of coke steel enterprises and the production restriction brought by the Winter Olympic Games.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid rose this week. At present, the quotation in Sichuan is 10500-12000 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 12500 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10500-13000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 10500-11500 yuan / ton, and that in Shanghai is 11000-13000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market may continue to rise following the cost side, but the demand follow-up is insufficient, so some increases are restrained.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that on the whole, the yellow phosphorus price continues to rise this week. At present, the spot is tight and the order is good. The price of yellow phosphorus is expected to remain high in the short term.