Commodity index: on December 20, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 108.15, up 0.09 points from yesterday, down 3.01% from the highest point of 111.51 points in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 30.47% from the lowest point of 82.89 points on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Data monitoring shows that in the first and middle of December, the market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China was flat after a slight shock, that is, the mainstream market price on the 1st was about 17987.5 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price on the 20th was about 17700 yuan / ton, down 1.6%. Recently, the market demand is weak, the transaction is general, and the market is slightly weak.

International crude oil fundamentals play a long and short game. The Omicron strain still hinders economic recovery. Recently, IEA’s expectation of excess crude oil supply continues to pressurize the oil price, but OPEC + maintains a moderate increase in production policy, tight supply forms a strong support for the oil market, and the crude oil price may rise slightly; Despite the impact of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, limited production and shutdown in many places, and the commencement of basic chemicals affect the market supply, due to the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products has been adjusted slightly. Since December, the polyacrylamide market has experienced a slight decrease, but the overall adjustment range is not very large.

Raw material acrylonitrile, the market of raw material acrylonitrile fluctuated and decreased by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream quotation in the market is 15100 yuan / ton. The market expects that acrylonitrile will weaken in the near future, and there is no risk of sharp decline. So far this month, the supply has been gradually released, the domestic trade ships in East China port will arrive, the new production capacity is expected, and the pessimistic expectation is aggravated. The time for the centralized shutdown and restart of acrylamide plants in Ningbo is not clear, the production is limited by environmental protection in the North, the industrial operating rate is slightly high, at the same time, the emergency response of heavy pollution natural gas, and the shutdown of mining and downstream water treatment demand enterprises. The buyer should follow up carefully, The circulation of goods slowed down, and the market price was obviously depressed.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid fell in the first and middle of December. The average price of acrylic acid in East China on the 1st was 17000 yuan / ton, and the average market price on the 20th was 13100 yuan / ton, down 22.94%. last week (December 13-december 17) the quotations of acrylic acid enterprises in East China were mixed, and the overall price rose slightly. Recently, the raw material propylene market was consolidated and operated, the cost support was limited, the spot supply in the early market was improved, the demand side was not followed up, the inquiry and transaction performance were general, the price of acrylic acid fell, the market negotiation gradually bottomed out, the overseas mainstream devices were force majeure, and the export inquiry turned better , the prices of some enterprises increased. At present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost support is general, and the market inquiry atmosphere is good. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market may be stable, medium and strong, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas fluctuated all the way in the first and middle of December: the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on the 1st was 6773.33 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on the 20th was 4440 yuan / ton, a sharp drop of 34.45%, and the focus shifted down sharply. The LNG analyst of business society believes that at present, there is still no obvious improvement in demand, the market continues to be sluggish in the peak season, and there is a certain pressure on shipment in some regions or affected by public health events. It is expected that domestic LNG is still expected to decline in the short term.

As for the future market, bulk commodities are weak, raw material prices are weak, market support is unstable, downstream demand is general, and there is no risk of significant weakening of polyacrylamide trend,; Although the environmental protection and dual control policies in many cities in winter led to manufacturers’ production restriction and shutdown, the weak demand led to a weak market. In the current environment, polyacrylamide market is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.