1、 Price trend
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According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on January 1 was 2440 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on December 24 was 3600 yuan / ton. The overall increase in the whole year was 47.54%, and the maximum increase in the year was 48.57%. The highest price of diammonium phosphate in the year is 3625 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in the year is 2440 yuan / ton.
2、 Market analysis
The total capacity of diammonium phosphate in 2020 is 20.82 million tons, and there is no new capacity in 2021 compared with last year. The total output of diammonium phosphate from January to November in 2021 is 13.0565 million tons. In 2020, the total output of diammonium phosphate will be 12.7752 million tons. This year is 2.20% higher than last year. The total export volume from January to November 2021 is about 6.2177 million tons, and the export volume in 2020 is about 5.73 million tons, an increase of 18.72% over last year.
In 2021, the price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise from the beginning of the year. After rising to the highest price in August, it began to operate smoothly until the end of the year. The biggest increase in the year was in February, with an increase of 16.47%. The biggest decline in the year was in April, with a decline of 1.59%.
In the first stage (January March), the price of diammonium phosphate rose continuously, with an increase of 29.10%.
The price of diammonium increased in January. Mainly due to the tight supply of goods in the field, the upward trend of raw materials, the stable demand for winter storage, the increase of inquiry heat in the downstream, no pressure on sales of diammonium phosphate enterprises, queuing for delivery, strong price support and strong positive support, diammonium phosphate has a strong trend. In February, the market was still relatively stable, the price was not loose, and the mentality of the industry was good. After the Spring Festival, the calm was broken, diammonium rose sharply, most enterprises stopped reporting and did not collect money, and mainly issued early orders. In March, domestic orders were received in limited quantity, and the market supply was tight. In spring farming season, the demand side was strongly supported, and the trend of diammonium phosphate was strong in the situation of supply exceeding demand.
In the first stage (April May), the price of diammonium phosphate fell by 2.65%.
Since April, the rise of diammonium phosphate has been suspended, the price tends to be stable, and diammonium phosphate has entered the stalemate operation stage. The domestic market is weak, and enterprises and traders are mainly export-oriented. There is a large amount of enterprises to be issued. Some enterprises have been overhauled, and the market supply has decreased. The downstream demand for diammonium is insufficient, and the spring farming market has entered the closing stage.
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In the third stage (June August), the price of diammonium phosphate increased by 17.55%.
Since June, the price of diammonium has started to rise again. The atmosphere of the export market is good, the waiting volume is large, and the supply of goods is tight. Some enterprises stop for maintenance, most enterprises suspend their quotation, and the actual transaction can be negotiated. The price of raw materials is high. Supported by the cost, it rose to the highest point of 3625 yuan / ton in August. From the second half of August, the price of diammonium tends to stabilize. The pending orders of diammonium decreased and the market trend gradually weakened. Due to the poor price of urea, the trend of downstream compound fertilizer is weak, the demand for diammonium is reduced, and the overall market is weak. The quotation of most enterprises was suspended and the unit was operated under reduced load. The progress of winter storage market is slow, and there is no clear guidance in the market.
In the fourth stage (September December), the price of diammonium phosphate fell by 0.14%
Continuing the trend at the end of August, the market of diammonium began to stabilize from September to the end of the year. Diammonium phosphate has a large number of domestic orders. Most enterprises still mainly send early orders and do not receive payment temporarily. Most enterprises have no quotation for the time being. Under the influence of power and production restriction and environmental protection, diammonium continues to operate at a high level. Although the price of raw materials rose, the cost support was good. However, the progress of winter storage market is slow, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are cautious in taking goods, and the transaction on the site is not ideal.
3、 Future forecast
According to ammonium phosphate analysts of business society, the overall performance of diammonium phosphate Market in 2021 is strong. Since the beginning of the year, the price has risen continuously to a high level. Due to power and production restriction and environmental protection, the price of raw materials rose, the supply of diammonium was insufficient, the downstream demand was actively followed up, and multiple advantages led to the sharp rise of diammonium market. At the end of the year, demand began to weaken and ended weakly and steadily. It is expected that the recent market will be dominated by weak and stable operation.
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