In December, after that, the power of consumer terminals was insufficient, and manufacturers preferred to ship to the warehouse. It was difficult to be optimistic about the overall market. There was no positive support at the upstream and downstream, and the price of viscose staple fiber fell sharply twice.
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Price trend
According to the price monitoring of business society, as of December 29, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 12180 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1780 yuan / ton compared with the price at the end of November, a decrease of 12.75%.
During this period, it experienced two sharp declines. The first time: on December 2, 2021, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13180 yuan / ton, a decrease of about 780 yuan / ton compared with the end of November, and the price reduction range was 5.59%; The second time: on December 27, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 12180 yuan / ton, down about 680 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, with a price reduction of 5.29%.
Light demand for textile terminals
Since November, the signing quantity of chemical fiber plants has been poor, and the downstream terminal demand has weakened obviously. Affected by this, the wait-and-see mood of downstream weaving, fabric enterprises and middlemen has increased, and the procurement has slowed down significantly or even suspended. In December, the textile terminal weaving market continued to weaken, and the operating load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang was around 62%. There are no new orders in the hands of some factories. In addition, the production inventory risk is high, and the new year is approaching, the start-up rate of terminal weaving may continue to decline. At present, the procurement of weaving factories is moderately followed up, focusing on cautious procurement.
Upstream staple and pulp Market
In December, the plan of converting some pulp units to dissolved pulp may be shelved due to the market. Due to the weakness of viscose staple fiber market, the quotation of raw pulp fell slightly. The inquiry of domestic dissolved pulp is limited, the trading volume is under pressure, and the price is loose with the imported pulp. In the spot market, recently, the average quotation of broad-leaved dissolved pulp in the outer market is around 910 US dollars / ton, and the price of domestic dissolved pulp is 6500-7000 yuan / ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated, but the transaction is not good.
The price of cotton yarn followed the decline
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In December, cotton yarn continued its weak operation, the price continued to fall with the raw viscose staple fiber, the trading atmosphere was weak, and the downstream terminal demand was weak. According to the price monitoring of the business society, as of December 29, 2021, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) was 18266 yuan / ton, down nearly 1000 yuan / ton compared with the end of November, with a decrease of 5.20%.
In December, with the downward adjustment of the price of viscose staple fiber, the upstream raw material, and the continuous holiday and shutdown of terminal factories near the Spring Festival, there were many negative factors on the fundamentals. The manufacturers expressed pessimistic attitude towards the future market. Analysts of the business society expect that the short-term human cotton yarn market will be mainly sorted downward.
Judging from the current market situation, due to the insufficient demand for orders, the domestic terminal demand is difficult to improve. In December, with the downward adjustment of the price of upstream raw viscose staple fiber and the continuous suspension of terminal factories near the Spring Festival, the accumulation of products in the downstream textile factories is becoming more and more obvious. In addition, the cash flow pressure before the Spring Festival is large, the textile factories began to clear their warehouses and collect money, The purchase intention of human cotton yarn decreased significantly. There are many negative fundamentals. Manufacturers are pessimistic about the outlook. Business analysts expect that the short-term cotton yarn market will be mainly sorted down.
Future forecast
According to the experience of previous years, there will be a wave of “xiaoyangchun” market in the raw material market in late December to replenish the stock for the Spring Festival, but this wave of “xiaoyangchun” has failed this year. The later trend of the sticky short market mainly depends on the upstream and downstream game and the demand of downstream terminals. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the terminal factories are going to have holidays and stop production one after another. There are many negative fundamentals and the new year is approaching. It is expected that the market situation of viscose staple fiber will remain weak in the future, and the price may have been dominated by weak consolidation.
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