In 2021, the BDO market price was in a relatively high position, and the price trend went out of the most “distinctive” pace in the past five years. The annual market rose and fell sharply, and then rebounded strongly. Until the end of the year, the BDO price was mainly high and volatile. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic BDO production price was 12800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and rose to 30830 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual price increase of 140.86%. The lowest price was 12800 yuan / ton on January 1 at the beginning of the year, and the highest price was 31500 yuan / ton in the middle and late of the first quarter on March 5, with a maximum amplitude of 146.09%. In a short period of time, the price rose rapidly, with a huge increase. Insiders lamented that BDO stepped out of the “six relatives” at the beginning of the year.
Trend chart of domestic BDO market in 2021:
Comparison chart of BDO price trend from 2017 to 2021:
Monthly K column chart of 1,4 butanediol (BDO) domestic production price:
BDO’s annual price quotation is divided into four stages: rapid rise stage in the first quarter, ladder decline stage in the second quarter, slow rebound stage in the third quarter, and high consolidation stage from the fourth quarter to the end of the year.
In the first stage, according to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers increased from 12800 yuan / ton on January 1 to 30700 yuan / ton on March 31, an increase of 139.84%.
Trend chart of domestic BDO market in the first quarter of 2021:
The domestic BDO market bottomed out and rebounded in the second half of 2020, and the rise continued until late November. After that, the market entered a high Stalemate Stage until mid January 2021. Supported by various favorable factors, such as reduced supply, limited transportation, bullish replenishment in the downstream, hot industry dark horse PBAT market, sharp increase in demand and so on, the state of the domestic BDO market in more than 20 days is “rising”.
Since the second half of 2020, PTMEG spandex industrial chain has been the most prominent downstream industry of BDO. The start of terminal weaving is high, the digestion of spandex is stable, and then the consumption of PTMEG is increased. As the largest downstream industry of BDO, PTMEG’s high-level operation also increases the consumption of raw materials. Other downstream industries are also developing healthily, with increased demand. Especially in the recent Spring Festival holiday, the State encourages “local Spring Festival”, and many large downstream factories “don’t stop work during holidays”. Therefore, many middle and downstream customers enter the market to make up their positions. At the same time, the downstream industry dark horse – PBAT industry, driven by the National Plastic restriction policy, the demand surged, thus increasing the digestion capacity of raw materials.
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In the second stage, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers fell from 29825 yuan / ton on April 1 to 17485 yuan / ton on June 30, a decrease of 41.37%.
Trend chart of domestic BDO market in the second quarter of 2021:
In early April, the factory started stably and the supply was abundant; However, the terminal follow-up was weak, the high price raw materials squeezed the downstream profit space, the market was cautious to make up positions, the auction price continued to decline, and there was a strong bearish mood on the floor. The supplier’s shipping mentality and profit negotiation. By may, the supply and demand of raw materials were bad, and the BDO market was “unsustainable” in May. The delivery price of calcium carbide in Northwest China decreased significantly by 575 yuan / ton compared with April; Methanol in Northwest China decreased by 212.5 yuan / ton compared with April, and the cost of BDO raw materials decreased. In addition, although the unit was shut down for maintenance or catalyst replacement within the month, there was no obvious benefit at the supply end due to the digestion of early-stage inventory; The terminal demand is weak, the downstream market is cautious, and the BDO spot market falls again and again. In June, the domestic BDO market was affected by the change of purchase and marketing mentality of the industry. The decline continued in the middle of the first half of the year, turned sharply to the bottom in the second half of the year, rebounded and continued to rise. In the first and middle of May, in addition to the short shutdown of Xinjiang Meike phase II to replace the catalyst, many maintenance units were restarted and stabilized in May, and the market supply was abundant. Traders’ fear of falling mentality increased and made a narrow margin to speed up the pace of shipment.
In the third stage, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers increased from 17325 yuan / ton on July 1 to 30125 yuan / ton on September 30, an increase of 73.88%.
Trend chart of domestic BDO market in the third quarter of 2021:
At the beginning of the third quarter, some factories released the maintenance news from July to August, and mainly delivered contract orders and spot controlled supply. The main traders had limited supply and strong willingness to be reluctant to sell. They mainly delivered early orders and offered few new orders. Some bulls continued to speculate, the middle and lower reaches continued to chase up and cover positions, and the focus of the negotiation was explored. In August, BDO market rose sharply and entered consolidation. Meike phase II has not been restarted. Lanshantun River and Xinye have been shut down for maintenance, and Shaanxi chemical has replaced the catalyst. In addition, due to the impact of rainstorm and epidemic situation, the transportation in some areas is slow, the supply of goods is tightened again, and the domestic BDO market continues to rise. After more than a month of rapid rise, BDO downstream has obvious resistance to high prices, and the positive transmission is not smooth. Traders have entered the wait-and-see stage, so the BDO market has entered a high consolidation period. With the restart of the unit, the positive support of the market weakened, and the domestic BDO market turned downward.
First fell and then rose, and the BDO market “rose again” in September. At the end of August and the beginning of September, the whole BDO domestic market was mainly on the sidelines at the beginning of the new moon. The overall supply and marketing is weak, and it seems that the market situation of BDO’s current round of “singing all the way” has come to an end. As BDO units such as great wall energy, Shaanxi black cat, Yanchang Petroleum, Cathay Xinhua and Shaanxi chemical all stop for maintenance at different times, the overall operating rate decreases, the supply of goods in the market is tight, the favorable support on the supply side appears, and the operator’s trading mentality is cautious. BDO market “recovery is in sight”. Then, the market is mainly affected by the continuation of multi device maintenance status, the overall supply of the market is tight, the factory mainly delivers contract orders, the spot volume is limited, the operator’s trading mentality is stable and preferred, and the domestic BDO market continues to rise.
In the fourth stage, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers rose from 30125 yuan / ton on October 1 to 30830 yuan / ton on December 31, an increase of 2.34%, and the overall market fluctuated at a high level.
Trend chart of domestic BDO market in the fourth quarter of 2021:
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At the beginning of the fourth quarter, the supply continued to shrink. Although some enterprise devices were started and the maintenance was completed, some enterprise devices were still under maintenance. The overall operating rate declined, the supply decreased, and the BDO market ushered in a short rise. In October, the domestic BDO market continued the rising trend in September, the price continued to rise and the rise slowed down, which was in line with the traditional “golden nine silver ten” market performance of chemicals. The short-term BDO market supply is still tight due to multiple factors: some units are due for maintenance, but many new discontinued units are added; Delayed delivery of orders in some areas due to poor transportation; At present, the operating rate of normal enterprises is low, the production capacity is general, the enterprise inventory is relatively low, and the speculation mentality of traders makes the BDO market rise again.
In November, the domestic BDO market fell into a “dilemma”, and the overall price fluctuated at a high level. Manufacturers delivered more contract orders, the spot volume was limited, and the high offer actively supported the market. Part of the downstream industries give up profits for promotion, the transmission of high cost pressure is blocked, the ability to accept high prices is weak, and the focus of negotiation continues to rise. Therefore, the BDO market only rose slightly. The downstream has a mentality of resistance to high priced raw materials, and the focus is to explore obstacles, so the market is in a dilemma.
Near the end of the year. Most of the main manufacturers maintain a price guarding mentality and are cautious about going low, while the middle and lower reaches lack confidence in the future market, the spot follow-up is light, some manufacturers have a strong shipping mentality, and the focus of real orders moves down. Each device operates stably and the overall market supply is abundant. However, the start-up of downstream enterprises such as PTMEG and PBT declined slightly, and other downstream enterprises also maintained the follow-up of just needed orders. The actual demand decreased, and most of them were resistant to high prices. They mainly maintained contract procurement, and their enthusiasm for spot follow-up was not strong. “Breaking the bottleneck”, BDO market opened a downward channel.
Comparison chart of price trend of methanol-1,4 butanediol (BDO):
Comparison chart of price trend of calcium carbide-1,4-butanediol (BDO):
Rise and fall chart of BDO industrial chain in 2021:
At the beginning of 2022, the domestic BDO market is “upside down”. The overall market supply is loose. The load of PTMEG and PBT in the main downstream decreased and the digestibility decreased; Other downstream are also in conflict with high prices, and the intention to prepare goods before the festival is not strong. The price market “fell down the altar”. In 2021, the market trend of BDO has been “Crazy”, the high level has lasted for a long time, and the downstream has long had a mentality of resistance. Although the main production enterprises have placed their hopes on reducing supply by adjusting the unit operating rate and increasing maintenance, the downstream conflict caused by long-term high price makes the current social inventory still in a high position. With the downstream industries entering the holidays one after another, the demand side is even more difficult. The bad start seems to indicate that the BDO market is also time to “return to normal”.
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