Tin continued to rise throughout 2021, and the price of tin nearly doubled. At the beginning of 2021, the average market price in East China was 151887.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 300037.50 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 97.54%. In the futures market, LME tin rose by 91.19% in 2021, and the main contract of Shanghai tin rose by 86%.
On December 29, the tin commodity index was 151.70, down 0.06 points from yesterday, down 0.24% from the highest point 152.06 in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 253.94% from the lowest point 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).
The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.
Looking at the monthly K-bar chart of the tin market in 2021, most of the tin ingot Market rose in 2021. Except March and October, the other 10 months maintained an upward trend, of which the largest increase occurred in January, with a monthly increase of 13.78%; The biggest decline was in March, with a monthly decline of 5.56%.
Tight supply at mine end
The tin market will go up unilaterally in 2021, and the logic of maintaining the price rise throughout the year is that the supply side is tight. In terms of mine end supply, more than 90% of China’s tin mines depend on Myanmar’s imports. In 2020, affected by the reduction of local tin mines in Myanmar, China’s import data decreased significantly compared with previous years. In December last year, China imported about 16000 tons of tin concentrate, a month on month decrease of 7.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.12%, but December is the month with more tin concentrate imports in 2020. In 2020, China exported 158000 tons of tin concentrate, a year-on-year decrease of 11.27%. The data of 21 years is also not optimistic. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China imported 11831 tons of tin ore sand and concentrate in November 2021, a month on month decrease of 40.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.53%; From January to November, China imported 170975 tons of tin ore sand and concentrate, with a year-on-year increase of 20.42%, of which the import from Myanmar accounted for 80.7% of the total import.
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The downstream demand is good and the acceptance is high
At present, the main application field of tin in China is the electronic industry. In the consumption structure of refined tin metal, solder accounts for about 44% and tin plate accounts for about 16%. Therefore, the development of the electronic industry, including the development of new energy industry, has a great impact on tin. In 2021, with the recovery of the global economy, the demand for 3C products, automobiles and new energy vehicles at the downstream terminals is relatively strong, and the downstream demand is good, which once again benefits the tin market and promotes the further strengthening of tin consumption. The overall application of tin in downstream commodities accounts for a relatively low proportion and uses less. Therefore, even if the price of tin rises all the way, it has little impact on the profits of downstream enterprises. Therefore, the downstream has a strong acceptance of high prices, which is also a factor contributing to the rise of tin prices in the past 21 years.
Looking at the historical price trend comparison chart of Tin over the years, we can intuitively find that the word “record high” has appeared frequently for tin prices in the past 21 years.
In the first quarter, the tin price rose and then fell. At the beginning of the year, the supply of imported ore in Myanmar continued to be tight, the domestic production was limited during the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic supply continued to be tight, and the tin price rose all the way. Later, with the gradual recovery of domestic production and transportation, the downstream demand was weak, the resistance to high price tin ingots was strong, the purchase intention was low, the domestic inventory accumulated, and the tin price began to fall.
Second and third quarter: Tin prices rose steadily. The mine side supply continued to be tight, the domestic tin mine output was difficult to increase, the global tin inventory continued to be low and other favorable factors boosted the tin price all the way up. Moreover, foreign demand is good, domestic inventory is transferred abroad, and domestic inventory continues to decline. During the same period, Nanfang mining will suspend the production of tin concentrate for 60% min, and some smelting enterprises will stop production, which will boost the tin market again, and the price will rise steadily.
Fourth quarter: in October, the downstream demand side was gradually weakened by the power restriction policy, and the peak production of solder and other industries had a limited impact on the overall demand for tin. On the whole, the smelter continues to be affected by double control of energy consumption, power restriction policy and shortage of raw materials. The output of refined tin is still low and the overall supply is still tight. Import: Myanmar’s import is still blocked, Mengbo port is still closed, the subsequent tin import is expected to decline, and the tight supply at the mine end will continue. Overall, the tin market is mixed with bad and good, but the supply is still low. Therefore, the tin price rises again after a slight fall.
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In the future, the tin price has been at an absolute high in history. The Spring Festival holiday is coming soon. It is expected that the supply and demand will weaken before and after the Spring Festival, and the inventory has shown some performance. The current absolute high price of tin has made the downstream used to purchasing on demand in 21 years. Globally, the terminal demand for tin is mainly concentrated in countries and regions with more developed semiconductors such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea. In the past 22 years, with the intensification of economic recovery, the demand for tin in the electronic semiconductor industry is expected to be better. China’s consumption in the field of electronic products has also maintained a rapid growth. On the demand side, tin has many positive factors. Overall, tin will remain in a tight supply situation in 2022, and tin prices are expected to remain high.
Relevant data:
Global semiconductor sales hit a record high from January to November 2021: the semiconductor industry association (SIA) announced on January 3, 2022 that the global semiconductor sales in November 2021 was US $49.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% and a month on month increase of 1.5%. SIA represents 98% of U.S. semiconductor companies and nearly two-thirds of non-U.S. chip manufacturers.
The latest report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) in December showed that the global tin market had a surplus of 2100 tons from January to October 2021. From January to October 2021, the output of refined tin increased by 16000 tons compared with the same period last year, and the apparent demand increased by 1.7% to 321200 tons compared with the same period last year. In October 2021, the global refined tin output was 30100 tons and the consumption was 29900 tons.
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