In 2021, the domestic aggregate MDI market rose and fell significantly, with a sharp overall shock. The price trend fluctuated significantly three times, and the mainstream curve showed a “W” trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI in East China remained at 18125 yuan / ton on January 1 and 20180 yuan / ton on December 31, with an overall increase of 11.34% in the whole year. The highest price point appeared in the middle of the first quarter, at 27750 yuan / ton on February 26, and the lowest price point appeared at 16775 yuan / ton on June 16, with the maximum amplitude of 39.55% in the whole year.

Specifically, the first sharp price rise and fall occurred in the middle of the first quarter. After the Lunar New Year of the ox, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose sharply. The price rise lasted more than 10 days. Basically, the quotation remained for only half a day, and increased again on the same day. In March, the guiding prices of Wanhua and keschuang were lower than the market price at that time. For a time, the volume was obvious, and the market price fell. On February 19 after the festival, the market price of domestic polymerized MDI was 19300 yuan / ton. As of March 4, the market price of polymerized MDI was 25750 yuan / ton, an increase of 33.52%. The highest price in the cycle appeared on February 26, 27750 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 43.78%. From March 1 to March 4, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI fell by 4.98%. Traders generally responded that “a single negotiation mode was opened, the profit margins were basically exhausted, the low-cost goods were sold out, and the price entered the rising track again”. The main reasons are in two aspects: on the one hand, it is the high support of the raw material pure benzene market, on the other hand, it is the shortage of goods for plant maintenance. The heavy bus unit is scheduled to be overhauled on February 27, with a duration of about one month; The technical transformation of Wanhua Yantai plant was successful, and the capacity was expanded to 1.1 million tons / year. Foreign devices: the market has learned that the storage and maintenance plan of Huntsman devices in the United States in the first quarter.

However, the good times did not last long. In March, the market fell sharply. The main reason for the sharp decline in the market in March is poor demand and insufficient power. In March, mainstream manufacturers held steady on the price of plug-in brands, and there was little information on the supply side throughout the month, which is of little significance to market guidance. Traders were able to maintain a high level at the beginning of the month, but there was strong resistance in the downstream, and there were few high-level real orders. Traders gradually changed their mentality and turned to low-cost volume and let the price ship. For a time, the price market was slightly chaotic. Near the end of the month, the prices of plug-in brands of most mainstream production enterprises decreased month on month, and the domestic aggregate MDI market fell into a downturn as a whole.

The second sharp rise and fall in prices occurred in the middle of the second quarter, mainly because the production enterprises controlled the volume of shipments. The supply of the supplier’s factory to the distributor has been reduced. In addition, the units of Shanghai huntsman and Shanghai BASF have been under maintenance, and the order arrangement is slow. Other factories have strict quantity control and less delivery. This period of rise and fall did not last long and the range was not very large.

The third sharp rise and fall in prices occurred at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, the traditional peak season of “golden nine and silver ten”. The quotation of manufacturers should be significantly increased. The hurricane in the United States led to the temporary shutdown of foreign MDI devices, and the relative shortage of supply gave rise to the bullish sentiment of traders. However, the lower reaches slightly resisted the high price, the shipment of traders was not smooth, and the market entered a high consolidation period. Some suppliers’ factories store and repair plans in the later stage, and the supply of goods is tight; From September to October, the maintenance of devices in Europe and the Middle East was concentrated, the foreign supply was tightened, and most customers in downstream industries had low inventories. Under the premise of tight supply, the negotiated transaction price gradually pushed up, and the increase was obvious near the end of the month. However, after the National Day holiday, the downstream inquiry mood was not high, mainly digesting the early inventory, the shipment of traders was not smooth, and the aggregated MDI market continued to decline.

Towards the end of the year, the domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded slowly, and the weekly price of the factory continued to rise to maintain limited supply; Some suppliers’ factories deliver goods evenly, and the filling of spot goods is slow; Dealers have different attitudes. Mainstream dealers offer prices to maintain stability and negotiate shipment.

According to the previous monitoring chart of the aggregated MDI market by the business society, it can be seen that the domestic aggregated MDI market in the past five years was at the high level of the price market in the first quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, with obvious ups and downs and a certain periodicity. Therefore, after the lunar new year in 2022, the aggregate MDI market is expected to go out of a new situation and open a high market. Throughout the year, the situation will continue according to the high level in the first quarter and the fourth quarter, and the situation sorted out in other periods of time.