1、 Price trend

According to the commodity data monitoring, the center of gravity of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus is downward. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 4066.67 yuan / ton on January 1 and 32250 yuan / ton on January 26. The price fell by 20.7% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

The price focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market is downward. After the new year’s Day holiday, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has increased, the overall market is relatively cold, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the transaction of yellow phosphorus market is weak and downward. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching the end of the market, with few new orders and sporadic replenishment. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 31000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 34000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, as of January 26, 2022, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 700 yuan / ton. Compared with January 1 (the ex factory price of phosphate rock is 690 yuan / ton), the average price has increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.45%. At present, near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of domestic phosphorus ore mines is low, and the supply of phosphorus ore is still tight. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the domestic phosphorus ore market will be consolidated at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In terms of coke, according to the price monitoring of business society, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanxi increased by 2938 yuan / ton on January 26, an increase of 20.51% compared with January 1 (2438 yuan / ton of secondary metallurgical coke). At present, the on-site inventory is generally low. Downstream steel mills are also expected to increase their production restriction near the East Olympic Games. They purchase coke on demand, and there is still some demand for replenishment near the holidays. On the whole, in the recent environment of weak supply and demand, the coke market is expected to operate stably for the time being.

In terms of phosphoric acid, in January, the domestic phosphoric acid market was running downward. At the end of the month, the market price of phosphoric acid was temporarily stable, and the start-up of enterprises was stable. Some small factories may have holidays in advance. Near the Spring Festival, downstream factories shut down and have holidays one after another, and the replenishment of positions was basically over. Phosphoric acid enterprises often occur in the surrounding areas. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of phosphoric acid was 9966.67 yuan / ton on January 26, down 13.08% compared with January 1 (11466.67 yuan / ton).

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency, on the whole, the price of yellow phosphorus fell sharply this month. The phosphoric acid market moves downward, the downstream market is more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and the overall market demand is poor. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the market is basically stagnant. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stabilized temporarily in the short term.