Aluminum price callback on the 11th
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According to the data of business agency, on February 11, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22946.67 yuan / ton, down 1.53% per day, up 6.27% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 12.65%.
Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 5.34% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 22.75% recently.
Main driving force of strong operation
Yesterday, the aluminum price broke through 23000 yuan / ton again and began to callback today. On the one hand, the total inventory of the company is 26690 tons, which is lower than that of the previous week. LME inventory was 880975 tons, an increase of 119025 tons over the previous trading day.
From a fundamental point of view, the internal and external reasons for the strong aluminum price remain.
There are three internal reasons for the recent strong operation of aluminum price:
1. The circulation of aluminum ingots in some areas of Guangxi has been blocked due to public health events, and the aluminum ingot inventory in Baise has basically changed to the factory inventory; Baise is the largest aluminum production city in Guangxi. According to the data, the completed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi is about 2.82 million tons, of which the completed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Baise is 2.32 million tons, accounting for more than 80% of the total production capacity in Guangxi. However, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi has been insufficient due to power and other reasons. By the end of January, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi was about 1.98 million tons, of which the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Baise was 1.73 million tons, It accounts for 4% – 5% of the national operation capacity.
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2. On the cost side, alumina prices rose slightly. Affected by the Winter Olympics, the operating capacity of alumina in Shanxi, Shandong and Henan has been reduced, about 15 million, with an average daily production reduction of 40000 tons. After the festival, there is more inventory digestion, and there is a large demand for replenishment of aluminum plants.
3. From the inventory data, the social inventory accumulation data of the Spring Festival is good. As of July 7, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 866000 tons, which is not much larger than that before the festival. In addition, there are more export orders from downstream enterprises recently, and the market sentiment is rising.
The external factors mainly focus on the production reduction caused by the early European energy problems.
Future forecast
The fundamentals of aluminum ingots have improved and the demand is expected to rise. After the quarter, the aluminum price rose sharply. After breaking through 23000 points, the long short game intensified, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and the taking of goods decreased sharply. It is expected that the recent high-level shock operation will be dominated.
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