2.14 aluminum price callback

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 14 was 22710 yuan / ton, down 1.03% per day, up 5.17% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 11.49%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.31% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.49% recently.

Main cause of callback

On the 11th, the aluminum price began to callback at a high level, interrupting the continuous rising market in the early stage.

The recent correction of aluminum price, on the one hand, is based on the rapid rise of aluminum price in a short time after the festival, and the downstream undertaking is weak; According to insiders, the aluminum price exceeded 23000 yuan / ton last week, and the market turnover decreased sharply. On the other hand, considering the Winter Olympics after the festival, the resumption rate of downstream aluminum rod plants and profiles in the northern region was lower than expected. Affected by the rise of aluminum price, the overall mood of replenishing and preparing warehouses in the downstream was not high, and the centralized resumption time of processing plants was in the second half of this month.

Future forecast

After the quarter, the aluminum price rose sharply. After breaking through 23000 points, the long short game intensified, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and the taking of goods decreased sharply. It is expected that the recent high-level shock operation will be dominated.