1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on February 22 was 8590 yuan / ton, down 3.16% from last Tuesday (15), up 1.54% from 8460 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and up 7.38% from the same period last year.
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2、 Market analysis
Recently, the PVC market is weak, the price has fallen frequently, the enterprise cycle has fallen by 300-500 yuan / ton, and the market focus has shifted downward. With the weakening of the macro atmosphere, PVC futures fell and the spot market went down. Although the downstream products industry resumed work and production after the festival, the overall market demand increased slowly. In addition, PVC manufacturers started work stably recently and the market supply was loose. At the same time, the price of raw calcium carbide fell, which further exacerbated the downward trend of PVC and the mentality of the industry was negative, The atmosphere of market transaction has weakened. On the 22nd, the PVC market fluctuated, and the low-end price began to rebound. People in the industry are optimistic about the later market. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide has fallen to around 4050-4150 yuan / ton, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises is mostly around 8300-8800 yuan / ton, the price of pvc5 calcium carbide in Tianjin is 8570-8670 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 8650-8700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Changzhou is 8500-8600 yuan / ton, Recently, market prices across the country have fallen steadily.
It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from November 29, 2021 to February 20, 2022 that the domestic PVC cycle rose and fell with each other. The largest decline was 2.71% in the week of November 29, which continued to the end of December. The price rose steadily in 2022, especially after the spring Festival, it rose by 3.84% in the week of February 7.
For the external price, Formosa Plastics announced the quotation of pvc3 in January. CFR India rose $70 to $1560 / ton, and CFR China rose $50 to $1310 / ton.
International crude oil futures closed higher on February 21. February 21 (Monday) is the “Washington birthday anniversary” in the United States. The US stock market is closed for one day. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures is reported as US $95.39/barrel, up US $1.85 or 1.97%. The rise in oil prices was mainly due to the confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine, which exacerbated supply concerns
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Ethylene, the external ethylene market rose. Ethylene prices in Asia rose. As of the 18th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1216-1226 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1186-1196 / ton. European ethylene market rose sharply. As of the 18th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1327-1337 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1255-1265 / ton. Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency believe that the international crude oil futures price remains high, so the data analysts of the business agency expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.
On February 21, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly, down 50 yuan / ton or 1.20% compared with the price on February 18, and increased by 26.15% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of raw material orchid charcoal fell slightly. At present, shenmulan charcoal is about 1500-1700 yuan / ton, and the cost support of calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC market has been adjusted at a low level recently, and downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement. On the whole, the upstream support of calcium carbide is weakened and the downstream demand is general. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 4000 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business society believe that the current market atmosphere has weakened, and the fundamentals of PVC have not changed greatly. With the repair of the demand area, it is expected that the PVC market may rise slightly due to this boost. For details, we need to pay attention to the information guidance.
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