On the 25th, aluminum prices operated smoothly

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 25 was 22830 yuan / ton, up 0.54% per day, up 5.73% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 12.08%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 5.82% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 22.13% recently.

List of upstream and downstream inventory data

Raw material side: on February 25, China’s alumina port inventory totaled 398000 tons, down 20000 tons from last week. Including 60000 tons in Qingdao port, 220000 tons in Bayuquan, 72000 tons in Panjin Port, 38000 tons in Jinzhou port, 8000 tons in Qinzhou port, and no spot inventory in Lianyungang, Fangcheng port, Rizhao Port, Longkou port and Caofeidian.

As of the 24th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream market was 1118000 tons, and 15000 tons were accumulated in the week. In terms of inventory in the plant area, it has decreased on the whole, and it is in the state of de stocking on the whole within the week. At present, the manufacturer’s shipment pressure is relatively small.

market conditions

In the downstream market, at present, the price of aluminum ingots is relatively high, and there is little willingness to hoard goods in the downstream. In terms of outbound volume, except for a small month on month increase in Chongqing this week, Wuxi’s outbound volume decreased due to epidemic factors; The outbound volume in Foshan, Changzhou and Gongyi areas decreased; The ex warehouse volume in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin and Shenyang changed little month on month.

Future judgment

At present, the aluminum price is close to 23000 points again. At present, the impact of the Russian Ukrainian situation on the price of non-ferrous aluminum is released in advance in the early stage, and the recent response is flat. It is rumored that Western sanctions will not affect Russian aluminum exports; However, the approval process of beixi-2 has stalled, and the European energy problem is difficult to solve in the short term, which supports the high operation of overseas aluminum prices. Domestically, due to the epidemic situation in Baise, the domestic production capacity is expected to decline by about 0.44% in February compared with that in January. In the short term, aluminum prices will remain high.