High aluminum price consolidation in March

According to the data of business agency, on March 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22640 yuan / ton, a daily decrease of 0.44%, a year-on-year increase of 31.81%, an increase of 0.35% compared with the average market price of 22560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (3.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 11.14%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.60% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.11% recently.

High aluminum price consolidation in March

Analysis of the reasons for the sharp rise of domestic aluminum price in the early stage:

1. The market expects that there is not much accumulated inventory in the Spring Festival. In addition to the sudden situation in Baise City, the two aluminum plants of baikuang have stopped production of 420000 tons, and the production reduction is superimposed with the expectation of low inventory in the peak season.

2. The news of the Russian Ukrainian crisis continued to ferment. On the one hand, Russia’s energy and metal exports were devastated by geopolitics. On the other hand, the European energy crisis led to an increase in production reduction expectations, with London Aluminum jumping sharply and the internal market following.

Analysis of the reasons for the current decline and consolidation:

1. Social inventory rose from February to March as a whole, domestic downstream demand recovered slowly, coupled with public health factors that erupted from time to time, logistics was affected, and the downstream operating rate was slightly weaker than that in previous years. Recently, the operating rate of leading downstream processing enterprises decreased, and the impact of the epidemic began to appear. The most obvious decline in the operating rate is the aluminum profile plate, with a sharp decline of 12.3% to 60.5%. The main reason is that this week’s outbreak in Nan’an City, Fujian Province and Binzhou City, Shandong Province led to the shutdown of regional enterprises, affecting the overall operating rate.

2. The price is high in the early stage, with 23000 yuan mark. After many games between the supplier and the demander, the downstream operating rate is narrowed and the supplier is suppressed in the short term.