In March, the domestic asphalt market was affected by the international crude oil price and fluctuated at an overall high level. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the spot price of domestic asphalt at the beginning of the month was 3537 yuan / ton, and the market price of domestic asphalt at the end of the month was 3977 yuan / ton. The price increased by 12.44% during the month and 33.46% year-on-year.

At the beginning of this month, although the international crude oil price broke through the 110 mark, the domestic asphalt market price rose slowly. Different regions are slightly different: only the price in East China fell, mainly due to the price reduction of Sinopec by 50 yuan / ton; In other regions, Shandong has the highest price increase, mainly due to the increase of Qilu Petrochemical by 100 yuan / ton. Driven by the futures market, some refining sources have increased significantly, followed by the increase of 75 yuan / ton in Northeast China and 65 yuan / ton in North China, mainly driven by the rise of raw oil prices.

In mid June, the overall increase of domestic asphalt market was relatively obvious. In terms of regions, the price increase in East China is the most obvious, mainly due to the cumulative increase of Sinopec’s price of 550 yuan / ton during the week; Secondly, the price in South China increased by 500 yuan / ton, and Maoming Petrochemical and PetroChina Gaofu increased by 600 yuan / ton; Then, the price in Northeast China increased by 450 yuan / ton, that in Shandong by 375 yuan / ton, that in Northwest China by 325 yuan / ton, and that in North China by 300 yuan / ton. This was mainly due to the influence of crude oil price, which led to the obvious price rise. However, due to the decline of crude oil, the prices in some parts of the North fell.

In late June, the domestic asphalt market showed a downward trend. In terms of regions, the price decline in Shandong was the most obvious, down 415 yuan / ton, mainly due to the impact of crude oil, the quotation of refining sources in the region fell sharply, and Qilu reduced 400 yuan / ton in total during the week. In the short term, there is room for downward prices in some regions, and the domestic asphalt market may be weak.

At the end of the month, the domestic asphalt market rose slowly. In terms of regions, the rise and fall of this week have been differentiated. Among them, the prices in South China, Southwest China, East China and Northwest China have been reduced as a whole. First, the price in Southwest China has been reduced most obviously; Secondly, the price in East China was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, mainly because the price of Sinopec fell first and then rose; Then, the price of Northwest China was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, mainly due to the price reduction of Sinopec by 100 yuan / ton. During the week, the price increases in Shandong and North China were more obvious, mainly due to the sharp rebound in crude oil prices, the reduction of low-cost supply and the continuous increase of market quotation. In the short term, the domestic asphalt market price may show a strong trend.

Annual comparison chart of asphalt price of business society from 2018 to 2022:

Monthly K column chart of asphalt domestic production price of business society:

Weekly K column chart of asphalt domestic production price of business society:

Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society:

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in March 2022, there were 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 9 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 56.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coke (21.91%), petroleum coke (15.86%) and coking coal (14.06%). There are 5 kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 13.45%), gasoline (- 7.29%) and naphtha (- 6.89%). The average rise and fall this month was 5.78%.

The asphalt supply is relatively low next month, and the demand may increase slowly as the weather improves. Asphalt analysts of business society expect that the domestic asphalt market may be dominated by high-level consolidation.